Week 16 NFL Teaser: Blitz-Happy Vikings Could Give Goff & Co. Fits

Ladies and Gentlemen, it’s teaser time!

It brings me great pleasure to share that my teaser cold streak has come to an end, but I won’t dine out on that very long as I still have a hole to get out of with my 6-9 season-long record.

Week 16 odds feature plenty of great options for teaser bettors, with a few big favorites that you can tease inside of the key number of seven and a handful of underdogs that you can tease both three and seven.

Let’s get into this week’s NFL picks, where we’ll hopefully land on a winning pairing that can add a little joy to the holiday season and a little bit (or a lot) of cash to our bankrolls!

Make sure to also check out Jason Logan's latest NFL Underdogs column before placing your wagers on NFL odds!

Week 16 NFL teaser picks

six-point teaser

• Vikings (+9)
• Jaguars (+8.5)

Picks made on September-12 at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Week 16 Teaser

Vikings (+3 to +9) vs Lions

Playing in tight games is in the DNA of the Minnesota Vikings. Despite having four different starting quarterbacks this season, they still haven’t lost a game by more than one score. In fact, each of their last three losses all came by three points or less.

After a hot start to their season, we’ve seen some inconsistent play from the Detroit Lions, especially on the road. Just two weeks ago, they lost in Chicago in a game where they averaged just 4.2 yards per play and Jared Goff was sacked four times. They managed to squeak out victories in New Orleans and Los Angeles against the Chargers, while their low point of the season came in Baltimore where they got humiliated by a score of 38-6.

It was in that Ravens game where Goff was sacked a season-high five times, and I think this is another matchup where he’ll be uncomfortable. The Vikings blitz at a league-high 47.7%, and they’ve been very effective at getting home on their pass rush lately, as they have the sixth-highest sack percentage over the last three games.

Combining that with Nick Mullens’ ability to get the ball downfield should keep the Vikings inside of the nine points.

Jaguars (+2.5 to +8.5) vs Buccaneers

When the Jacksonville Jaguars lose, it’s often in ugly fashion. They leave a bad taste in our mouths and in about a month, they’ve gone from being in the mix for the top seed in the AFC to being an underdog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I view this as an incredible buy-low, sell-high spot. The Jags are on their worst skid of the season, as Trevor Lawrence has been battling injuries and some boneheaded plays that have prevented them from winning against some good teams. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is riding a three-game win streak, but not exactly against great competition — congrats on barely beating the Panthers and Falcons!

Jacksonville is also oddly better away from EverBank Stadium. They rank dead-last in net yards per play at home, but seventh when they're the traveling team. They're also riding a 9-1 against the spread tear on the road, so I think they come in at the height of desperation and give the Buccaneers a great game. 

Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.

Best Week 16 teaser spots

• Vikings (+3 to +9)
• Jaguars (+2.5 to +8.5)
• Colts vs. Falcons (+2.5 to +8.5)
• Titans vs. Seahawks (+3.5 to +9.5)
• Commanders vs. Jets (+3 to +9)

I don’t think the Atlanta Falcons should be favored by 2.5 over the Indianapolis Colts, so I’ll gladly take Indy up to +8.5. Atlanta has played in 10 one-score games this season and has lost six of them, and the Falcons have also been afforded a lot of games against weak offenses. The Colts, meanwhile, have a surprisingly good scoring unit that will be able to keep them in this game against the Falcons, who average a miserable 18.4 points per game. 

Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans match up well in their home game against the Seattle Seahawks and will keep things tight. This is a pattern we’ve seen in all of their home games this season, where they’ve either won or lost by no more than five points. Tennessee should be able to take advantage of a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in opponent third down conversion percentage and 26th in red zone defense. If Ryan Tannehill starts instead of Will Levis, I'm comfortable with that, as Tannehill has performed well at home this season, leading the Titans to two 27-point performances.

And do you mean to tell me I can take a team up to +9 vs. Trevor Semien and a New York Jets team that averages 0.9 offensive touchdowns per game? Sign me up! The Jets have scored 13 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games. We also often see some fight from the Washington Commanders late in games, such as last week in Los Angeles when they scored 14 points in the final 7:17 of the fourth quarter against the Rams.

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