The closing weeks of the NFL season bring a slew of outside factors influencing the outcomes on the field, beyond the standard situational handicapping angles we unearth in this article.
Playoff pushes, lost seasons, player incentives, injured talents, resting starters, kicking the tires on a young prospect, and the always-spinning coaching carousel make betting the NFL Week 17 odds one of the toughest challenges of the year.
Then toss in the situational spots — letdown, look-ahead, and schedule — into the mix and you’ve got to keep your head on a swivel and ear to the ground in Week 17. Before you get down any action, consider all the factors, including my top spot bets.
Letdown spot: Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 40.5)
The Rams had better be careful. After winning two of their last three games and hanging a 50 burger on Denver — the last straw for (now former) Broncos head coach Nathanial Hackett — Los Angeles just might end up with Baker Mayfield as its quarterback of the future.
Sean McVay’s guys put on their best showing of the season in a Xmas Day ass-waxing, pouring on 51 points from an offense headlined by a couple of castoffs in Mayfield and RB Cam Akers (remember when the Rams couldn’t trade him away in October?).
Granted, they were playing a Broncos team that quit on the season and its coach after a drama-filled 2022 campaign that would make most daytime soap operas seems bland. Are bookies buying into Baker’s sudden success for the Rams’ upcoming Battle for Los Angeles?
After the Chargers’ played with their food in Monday’s win over Indianapolis, the opening odds have the Rams as 6.5-point “road” underdogs in SoFi Stadium. Given last week’s look-ahead line was as high as Bolts -9.5, is McVay’s team suddenly three points better than it was a week ago? Regression is waiting for the Rams in Week 17.
Looking to bet on some NFL action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.
Look-ahead spot: Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (+10, 41.5)
This one may fall under our “look-ahead” category, but the Cowboys face a three-headed spot bet beast in Week 17.
Dallas is a double-digit favorite on the road in Nashville, taking on a Titans team that is not only without QB Ryan Tannehill but could also be down RB Derrick Henry and DE Jeffery Simmons. The Cowboys could get caught looking past this non-conference contest and to the Week 18 finale with Washington and the upcoming playoffs, with plenty of jockeying left to do atop the NFC.
America’s Team also runs the risk of a letdown in Week 17 after a thrilling Christmas Eve victory over the rival Eagles that keeps the Cowboys in the mix for the division crown as well as the top seed in the conference. Dallas had been dwelling on that matchup for the past few weeks and could come out flat on the road in a game it’s expected to win by at least 10 points.
Both of those spot bets are compounded by the fact that this Week 17 outing comes on Thursday Night Football. The short week is not only a tall task in terms of preparation and recovery, but also focus. The letdown and look-ahead angles are amplified and with a mini bye waiting before Week 18, Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy could start sitting key players if Dallas lives up to oddsmakers’ expectations and is playing with a big lead late in the game. Beware the backdoor.
Schedule spot: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (+4, 43.5)
The Jaguars close out a challenging chunk of the calendar in Week 17. Jacksonville will be playing its second straight road game at Houston and its fourth away game in the past five weeks this Sunday. Oh, and this matchup with the Texans takes place on New Year’s Day, so let’s hope the Jags packed plenty of Pedialyte.
Jacksonville should be plenty motivated, though, especially after knowing if they have the inside track on the AFC South race with Tennessee playing Thursday. However, Houston is no walk in the park and this nasty stretch of schedule could add to the troubles with the Texans.
Houston has nothing to play for, and even more incentive to tank, but has shown some claws the past three games, going 3-0 ATS against the likes of Dallas, Kansas City, and Tennessee — the last of which lost in Houston last weekend.
Verifying this spot is the market move away from the Jaguars in the Week 17 odds. Jacksonville opened -5.5 but is now down to as low as -4 on the road — an adjustment made even more significant since sharp money has been in love with the Jags the past month and a half.
