NFL Week 18 Odds: Best Spot Bets Include the Atlanta Falcons in New Orleans

One more week of regular season football means one more week of NFL spot bets.

Motivations are mixed when it comes to the Week 18 odds, but plenty of situational edges and angles remain the same.

I pick through the NFL odds of the final 16 games of the season and highlight my top spots — letdown, look-ahead, and schedule — and how you can incorporate them into your NFL picks.

Thanks for reading my NFL spot bets each week and good luck in the playoffs.

Letdown Spot: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+3)

The Arizona Cardinals had a 2023 to forget. Yet, football bettors will always remember Arizona’s 35-31 upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17.

The Cards kicked the NFC hornet’s nest with that outright win as 12.5-point home underdogs — the second biggest upset of the season. The shocking result was extra meaningful for Arizona and first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon, the former Eagles defensive coordinator.

That wild win, and its emotional weight, makes for a massive letdown spot in Week 18.

The Cardinals are getting a field goal at home to the rival Seattle Seahawks, who need to beat Arizona and have Green Bay lose its finale to sneak into a Wild Card spot. There will be plenty of scoreboard-watching for the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoffs.

The Cardinals have more to gain from laying down in Week 18, considering the win over Philly took them from the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft to No. 4. Should they beat Seattle and have some other basement dwellers lose, Arizona could slide up as far as pick No. 7.

The stage is set for a looming letdown, but can we even count on Arizona to tank properly?

Look-Ahead Spot: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)

The final week of the regular season is usually littered with playoff-bound teams giving their starters the week off before the tournament. But with a logjam in the standings, only a handful of clubs have the option to park their standouts in Week 18.

Cleveland is one of those teams. The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and Sunday’s finale with the Bengals holds zero weight regarding their postseason picture.

While head coach Kevin Stefanski has hinted at resting his starters — and who could blame him considering Cleveland’s injury issues all season — he hasn’t fully committed to the idea. Instead, Stefanski told reporters he must formulate a plan first.

That plan likely includes journeyman QB Jeff Driskel, who was just signed from Arizona’s practice squad this week. He’ll serve a risk-free punching bag against the Bengals, while Joe Flacco rests his 38-year-old bones.

The spread for this Battle of Ohio reflects the Browns’ look-ahead situation, moving from Cincinnati -4 to -5.5. That line hangs just short of a key number and will likely tick to -6 or higher once Stefanski officially announces his Week 18 intentions.

Schedule Spot: Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints

The Falcons’ Week 18 finale is of importance to both the NFC South and NFL bettors.

Atlanta was the sharp darling of the offseason, with plenty of professional money piling on its season win total and betting the Over 7.5 wins with both fists. There was such a strong opinion on the Over that bookies pushed the win total to 8.5 O/U before Week 1.

A victory over the Saints in New Orleans would make the Falcons 8-9 straight up on the year and cash those tickets on the lower win total. A win would also open a slim chance of Atlanta making the postseason cut via a divisional title — two more popular offseason bets — with the Falcons also needing Tampa Bay to lose at Carolina.

Standing in the way of that futures liability is a challenging schedule spot in Week 18. This venture to the Big Easy is the Falcons’ second straight road game and their third away game in four weeks.

Atlanta is just 2-5 SU and ATS as a visitor, averaging a mere 14 points per road game with an average margin of -5 away from home.

New Orleans not only holds the strong home-field edge but can win the NFC South with a victory and a Bucs loss — or score a Wild Card ticket with a win and losses from Seattle and Green Bay.

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