Well, that was a wild first three weeks of the season…
I don’t think any NFL team can be trusted based on how things have played out early on. One week you have the Raiders going on the road and upsetting the Ravens, only to get destroyed the next week at home against the pathetic Panthers.
Then you have the Bengals losing at home as big favorites vs. the Patriots and Commanders, but in the middle of those two games they went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in Kansas City.
It's complete madness, but that’s what makes this league so great. This season has given full meaning to “any given Sunday” as underdogs of 5.5-points or more are dominating, posting an amazing 13-1-1 ATS record with 10 (!) outright wins.
Does this mean you should be targeting big dogs going forward? Not necessarily. Each matchup needs to be looked at individually, and keep in mind that NFL betting trends like this tend to correct themselves over the course of a season.
Whether you’re backing big dogs or not this week, here’s my favorite betting trend for every game that’ll hopefully give you a head start with your handicapping. Best of luck in Week 4!
Best NFL Week 4 betting trends
Cowboys vs Giants
The trend: The Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite.
Getting on the road might be the best thing for the Cowboys right now after losing back-to-back games in Dallas.
They tend to take care of business on the road vs. inferior opponents and I’m sure they’re happy to be facing a Giants team that they outscored 89-17 over two games last season. The Cowboys are favored by six in this week’s Thursday nighter.
See all Cowboys vs Giants trends for Week 4.
Steelers vs Colts
The trend: Pittsburgh games have an average combined score of just 25.6 points this season.
The Steelers are an Under monster this season. They still haven’t scored more than 20 points while their opponent hasn’t topped 10.
Indianapolis’ defense could also be on the rise after holding consecutive opponents to 16 points. This game has a total of 39.5.
See all Steelers vs Colts trends for Week 4.
Vikings vs Packers
The trend: The Vikings have gone Under the first half total in 15 of 20 games since the start of last season.
This one has carried over nicely from the 2023 season as the Vikings are 3-0 to the Under in the opening half with an average combined first half score of 17 points thanks to a defense that’s allowed just 10 total first half points in three games.
Green Bay’s defense has been solid in the first half as well as they’ve held their last two opponents to seven total points. This game has a first half total of 21.5.
See all Vikings vs Packers trends for Week 4.
Broncos vs Jets
The trend: The Broncos have covered the first quarter spread in 17 of their last 22 games.
Things might go off the rails in quarters two through four, but the Broncos start fast! This was on full display in Week 3 in Tampa Bay, where they outscored the Bucs 14-0 in the opening quarter.
If you think the fast starts continue, you can grab them at +2.5 on the first quarter spread.
See all Broncos vs Jets trends for Week 4.
Jaguars vs Texans
The trend: The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a loss.
We’ll see if this one carries over to this season as Houston is coming off their first loss of the season heading into this divisional matchup with the Jags.
The Texans have had Jacksonville’s number in recent seasons, winning 10 of the last 12 matchups between the teams. If you like Houston to bounce back, you can bet that at -6.5.
See all Jaguars vs Texans trends for Week 4.
Saints vs Falcons
The trend: The Saints have gone Under in 18 of their last 24 divisional matchups.
The Saints’ offense fell back to earth in Week 3, as they had just 12 points after crossing 40 points in their two previous games, but their defense has remained consistent by holding each of their three opponents to less than 20 points.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have scored just 27 points in their first two games at home. The total for this matchup is 42 points.
See all Saints vs Falcons trends for Week 4.
Rams vs Bears
The trend: The Bears have gone Under in 10 of their last 13 games.
Chicago’s defense has been doing its part to keep scoring down as they’ve held nine consecutive opponents to 21 points or less. Also helping with the Under trend being a perfect 3-0 this season is an offense that ranks dead-last in yards per play.
The total for this matchup is 41 points.
See all Rams vs Bears trends for Week 4.
Eagles vs Buccaneers
The trend: The Eagles are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games in the first half.
These slow starts have been on full display this season with Philadelphia at 0-3 ATS in the opening half thanks to only averaging eight points.
If you expect another sluggish start, the Bucs can be had on the first half spread at +0.5.
See all Eagles vs Buccaneers trends for Week 4.
Bengals vs Panthers
The trend: The Bengals have gone Over in seven of their last nine games.
Andy Dalton revenge game! After leading the Panthers to 36 points in Week 3, Dalton will look to light-up his former squad, and I’m sure Joe Burrow won’t be in a mood to play down to the competition after an 0-3 start from Cincinnati.
Carolina’s defense has been awful on third down and in the red zone, so we might not see a lot of kicking from the Bengals. The total for the game is 47 points.
See all Bengals vs Panthers trends for Week 4.
Patriots vs 49ers
The trend: The 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.
This looks like an easy one for the 49ers as a 10-point favorite at home, right? Well, you might want to pump the breaks on that.
Underdogs, especially big ones, are on a roll so far this season and that pattern could continue in San Francisco as the 49ers are beat-up and coming off consecutive losses.
The Patriots might be awful, but that’s still a big number for the 49ers to cover given the state of their team.
See all Patriots vs 49ers trends for Week 4.
Commanders vs Cardinals
The trend: The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in nine of their last 12 road games.
It’s probably being overshadowed by the play of Jayden Daniels, but this Commanders defense has been really bad. They rank 31st in yards allowed per play and have allowed 70 total points in their two road games.
Conveniently enough, Arizona’s team total is sitting at 26.5. Also, this is the Kliff Kingburry revenge game, so a bet on the full-game Over at 50.5 is worth look.
See all Commanders vs Cardinals trends for Week 4.
Chiefs vs Chargers
The trend: The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
The consensus best team in the NFL has also been good at covering spreads, imagine that. They’re favored by eight in this matchup, but bettors should proceed with caution until we know of the status of Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert, who needed to leave last week’s game against the Steelers.
This will be a major test for L.A.’s defense after facing the Raiders, Panthers, and Steelers to open the season.
See all Chiefs vs Chargers trends for Week 4.
Browns vs Raiders
The trend: The Raiders have gone Under their team total in 14 of 20 games since the start of last season.
Leave it to the Raiders upset the Ravens on the road only to lose the next week at home against the Panthers. They’ll try to snap out of their latest funk at home vs. the Browns this week. where their team total sits at 19.5.
See all Browns vs Raiders trends for Week 4.
Bills vs Ravens
The trend: Buffalo has gone Over its team total in all three games to open the season.
This is a small sample size, but a sample size needs to start somewhere and this might be a good spot to back the Bills offense as they’re absolutely buzzing right now with a league-high 37.2 PPG. Baltimore’s defense could also be vulnerable as they rank near the bottom of the league in yards per play allowed.
The Bills’ team total is sitting at just 22.5.
See all Bills vs Ravens trends for Week 4.
Titans vs Dolphins
The trend: The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six games and have gone Under in five straight.
Someone hit the ‘off’ switch on the Miami Dolphins. Maybe they need to be unplugged and plugged back in again.
This team has scored just 13 total points in its last two games and ranks 31st in the red zone. Tennessee’s offense isn’t exactly flying high either as they haven’t topped 17 points in a game this season.
The Dolphins are favored by a point while the total is a rock-bottom 36.5.
See all Titans vs Dolphins trends for Week 4.
Seahawks vs Lions
The trend: These teams have combined for 68, 93, and 80 points in their last three games against each other.
These games have all taken place over the last three seasons. This will be a major step up in competition for Seattle’s defense after facing teams quarterbacked by Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson.
The total for this matchup is 46.5, which is the lowest total for a Lions’ home game in close to 11 months.
See all Seahawks vs Lions trends for Week 4.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
