Another week of NFL action is upon us and if it's like the previous four, some wacky results are likely on the horizon.
The Week 5 schedule also features the second international game of the season with the Jets and Vikings crossing the pond to Jolly Old England. We have a pretty good sample size of international games now with a total of 45 taking place since the NFL started traveling outside of the United States. The games aren't always pretty and have likely been the cause for at least a handful of divorces as they take over an even bigger chunk of our Sundays, but they've also provided a reliable betting trend, which is simply to back the favorite.
In these 45 International games, the favorite has gone 34-10-1 SU and 30-15 ATS. Any casual bettor should be able to tell you that a 67% cover % is a rock-solid number.
The Vikings are favored by 2.5 vs the Jets on Sunday morning at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and based on the performance of the teams this season, the trend has a great shot to continue.
Check out my favorite NFL betting trend for every game of the week below. Best of luck in Week 5!
Best NFL Week 5 betting trends
Buccaneers vs Falcons
The trend: Since the start of the 2020 season, the Atlanta Falcons have gone 6-18-1 ATS in games after a win
Momentum has not been on the side of the Atlanta Falcons so far this decade. They’re coming off a Week 4 win over the Saints and will be looking to reverse this trend against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that’s been a great bet on the road where they’ve gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games outside of Tampa Bay. The Falcons are favored by 1.5.
See all Buccaneers vs Falcons trends for Week 5.
Jets vs Vikings
The trend: The Vikings are 4-0 SU and ATS this season… for the full-game, first half, and first quarter… while also going Over their team total in each game
Well, Minnesota has pretty much been a perfect bet through four weeks. They’ll look to continue this pattern in jolly old England as a 2.5-point favorite against the up-and-down New York Jets who are on a 4-10 ATS slide over their last 14 games.
See all Jets vs Vikings trends for Week 5.
Browns vs Commanders
The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in every game this season
This one will really be put to the test against one of the league’s worst defenses in the Washington Commanders, but it’s been an ugly start to the season for the Cleveland Browns. They enter this game ranking last in yards per play and third-down conversion % and have allowed a league-high 19 sacks. That Deshaun Watson trade/contract looks more pathetic with each passing game. Their team total for this game is 20.5.
See all Browns vs Commanders trends for Week 5.
Ravens vs Bengals
The trend: The Bengals have gone Over in eight of their last 10 games
Cincinnati has emerged as a strong candidate to go Over each week as they’ve now played in three straight games that have topped 50 points including games of 71 and 58 combined points with the Commanders and Panthers. It’s also worth noting that six of the last seven games between these teams have gone Over. The total is set at 50.5.
See all Ravens vs Bengals trends for Week 5.
Bills vs Texans
The trend: The Bills have gone Under in 14 of their last 18 road games
Trends align pretty well for this game as the Houston Texans have gone Under in nine of their last 12 regular season games including three straight coming into this matchup. Houston’s offense has been more down than up lately with an average of just 16.6 points over its last three games. The total for this game is at 47.5.
See all Bills vs Texans trends for Week 5.
Colts vs Jaguars
The trend: The Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against the Jaguars and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in Jacksonville
Is this the week the Jacksonville Jaguars finally pick up a win? They did show a little fight in Week 4 against the Texans and a matchup against the beat-up Indianapolis Colts seems ideal given their recent domination of them. The Jaguars are favored by three points.
See all Colts vs Jaguars trends for Week 5.
Panthers vs Bears
The trend: The Bears have won seven straight games at home
I needed to double-check this one, but it is indeed true that the Chicago Bears are on a nice roll at home going back to last season. They’ve gone 6-1 ATS in these games and will look to continue this run vs the Carolina Panthers who’ve won just one of their last 11 road games. Chicago is favored by 3.5
See all Panthers vs Bears trends for Week 5.
Dolphins vs Patriots
The trend: The Dolphins have covered the spread in seven straight games against the Patriots
You’ve gotta be a brave soul to pull the trigger on the Miami Dolphins this week. You’d also have to be brave to spend more than a few minutes watching this game. It’s been ugly for the Dolphins, but this could be a spot to get back on track against a New England Patriots team that’s been outscored 54-16 in its last two games. Miami is a +1.5-point underdog in what will likely go down as one of the worst games of the season.
See all Dolphins vs Patriots trends for Week 5.
Cardinals vs 49ers
The trend: These teams are a combined 6-2 to the Over this season
Not the sexiest trend, but I think it’s an actionable one this week. Both teams find themselves near the bottom of the league in yards allowed per pass attempt and third down defense which is especially concerning for the San Francisco 49ers given their lack of offensive competition to open the year. The total for this game is at 49.5.
See all Cardinals vs 49ers trends for Week 5.
Raiders vs Broncos
The trend: The Broncos have covered the first quarter spread in 18 of their last 23 games
The trend is 3-1 to open this season and it looks like a good spot to put it into action again in Week 5. The Las Vegas Raiders have been shut out in the opening quarter in two of their four games so far while the Denver Broncos have shut out their last two opponents in the opening quarter. Denver is a -0.5 1st Q favorite at an attractive +140 number.
See all Raiders vs Broncos trends for Week 5.
Packers vs Rams
The trend: The Packers have gone Over in 10 of their last 13 games, the Rams have gone Over in nine of their last 12 games
We can also add in the Green Bay Packers going Over in eight of their last nine on the road. Green Bay has scored 29 or more points in three of its four games and should be able to go up and down the field with ease vs. a Los Angeles Rams team that ranks last in yards allowed per play. Green Bay has struggled against the pass, so there should be opportunities for the Rams to keep pace. The total for this game is 48.5 points.
See all Packers vs Rams trends for Week 5.
Giants vs Seahawks
The trend: The Giants have gone Under in every game this season
New YorkGiants games have an average combined score of just 36 points through four games this season and have yet to hit the 40-point mark in a game this season. For what it’s worth, these teams faced off last season in New York and combined for just 27 points. The total for this game is 43.5 points.
See all Giants vs Seahawks trends for Week 5.
Cowboys vs Steelers
The trend: Only three of the Steelers' last 22 home games have surpassed 44 total points scored
Low-scoring matchups are typically on full display in the Steel City and this is also a pattern in Dallas Cowboys’ road games as they’ve gone Under in 10 of their last 15 outside of Dallas. This total of 44 points is the highest for a Pittsburgh Steelers game since October 22 of last season.
See all Cowboys vs Steelers trends for Week 5.
Saints vs Chiefs
The trend: Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception in every game this season while the Saints are third in the NFL with six picks
Let’s focus on a player prop with nothing serious standing out for either team… Patrick Mahomes has had some really sloppy throws this season while the ball-hawking New Orleans Saints aren’t making it easy for opposing QBs. I know what prop bet I’ll be looking to place on Monday night!
See all Saints vs Chiefs trends for Week 5.
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