Moving the line across multiple key numbers is the name of the game with teasers, and I’ve identified multiple teams to turn to on Sunday, October. 6. The San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins check out as my top teaser NFL picks for Week 5.
NFL Week 5 teaser picks
6-point teaser
- 49ers (-1)
- Dolphins (+7)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Week 5 Teaser
49ers (-7 to -1) vs Cardinals
The San Francisco 49ers have beaten the Arizona Cardinals in four straight, including covering a double-digit spread in each. Arizona hasn’t had a defensive answer in consecutive games and allowed the third-highest EPA per play and highest success rate to drop to 29th in defensive DVOA for the season.
Now, the Cards hit the highway to face a San Fran offense that’s averaging 25.8 points per game and pacing the league in offense grade, per PFF. Of course, the 49ers are also solid defensively. San Fran ranks fourth in defensive DVOA while allowing the 10th-lowest EPA per play.
Finally, I particularly value that Arizona hasn’t been able to generate a consistent or disruptive pass rush. The Cards rank 31st in pass-rush win rate, 30th in PFF pass-rush grade, and 30th in pressure percentage (15.4%).
Dolphins (+1 to +7) vs Patriots
Even with the injuries piling up for the Miami Dolphins, I’m happy to tease them up to a touchdown margin against the New England Patriots because I have confidence in Miami head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tyler Huntley figuring it out on offense following a full week of practice.
There are too many big-time Miami playmakers, and Huntley has flashed in a game-manager’s role while also showing off a splash of game-breaking ability on the ground of his own. Simply put, this offense has too much talent to remain a dumpster fire Sunday.
I can’t say the same for New England.
The Pats have a makeshift offensive line, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett has a single big-time throw all season while airing it out for just 5.3 yards per attempt and a 6.8 aDoT. New England ranks 32nd in pass-block win rate and 26th in rush-block win rate, while sporting respective 30th and 29th PFF grades in run and pass blocking. Not exactly the formula to cover a touchdown spread.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Best Week 5 teaser spots
- 49ers (-7 to -1)
- Dolphins (+1 to +7)
- Giants vs. Seahawks (+6 to +12)
- Saints vs. Chiefs (+5.5 to +11.5)
- Cowboys vs. Steelers (+2.5 to +8.5)
Moving the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints up definitely aren’t conventional teaser legs, but in both cases, we’re increasing the number to a double-digit spread against teams with a lot of impact players injured.
The Seattle Seahawks were run over by the Detroit Lions for 7.8 yards per play and the highest EPA per play of Week 4, and they have a short week and multiple impact defenders nursing injuries who could be out again in Week 5. Giants QB Daniel Jones has been sneaky effective the past two weeks (10th in EPA per play), and New York has also played three straight one-possession games.
It’s the offensive side of the ball that has the Kansas City Chiefs in trouble for their matchup with the New Orleans Saints. Sure, KC is 4-0, but they’ve won four straight one-possession games, and there’s a case that the Saints are their toughest opponent yet. New Orleans is third in DVOA and second in overall grade per PFF, after all.
The lack of quality traditional teaser options lands the Dallas Cowboys at the bottom of the recommendation list, and it’s simply because the Pittsburgh Steelers offense might not be the right group to take advantage of the Dallas shortcomings on defense.
Pittsburgh is 20th in EPA per play and 29th in rushing EPA, so I’m not convinced the Steelers can fully pull away. Additionally, three of their four games have been one-possession finishes, and the Steel have some injuries of their own with key pass-rusher Alex Highsmith (groin) already ruled out.
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