The Monday Night Football nightcap features the Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium tonight.
Our top same-game parlay NFL picks and Chargers vs. Cardinals predictions are calling for Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert and the passing attack to pull away from Arizona on Monday, October 21.
Chargers vs Cardinals SGP for NFL Week 7
Chargers moneyline
Justin Herbert Over 195.5 passing yards
Will Dissly 25+ receiving yards
- Chargers moneyline
- Justin Herbert Over 195.5 passing yards
- Will Dissly 25+ receiving yards
I’m a believer in the Los Angeles Chargers stop unit. The Bolts rank third in defensive DVOA, and they’re particularly stingy against the run with the seventh-low EPA per rush allowed, seventh-ranked run-stop win rate, and seventh-highest run defense grade per PFF.
It puts the Arizona Cardinals in a bit of a tough spot because quarterback Kyler Murray has been incredibly inconsistent through six weeks, yet he still sports a higher yards per attempt (7.0) and aDoT (8.4) than he’s posted in each of the past two years. Reinforcing the statistical rollercoaster, he’s also thrown for just 6.6 yards per attempt the past three weeks.
If the Cards can’t run the ball successfully, I’m expecting Los Angeles to be able to largely hold the passing attack in check. The Chargers have the third-lowest defensive aDoT (6.0), and they also rank 10th in coverage grade. Plus, the Cards rank 25th in the NFL in both EPA per play and EPA per dropback.
Of course, I’m anticipating the Chargers putting points on the board against a vulnerable Cards defense, too. Arizona has allowed the second-highest EPA per play, ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA and sports the third-lowest defense grade per PFF, after all.
Bolts QB Justin Herbert threw for a season-high 237 yards last week against a much tougher Denver Broncos defense on the road, and I’m expecting him to continue airing it out Monday. The Cards have allowed the highest yards per attempt and dropback success rate in the NFL, and they are last in pass-rush win rate and have the second-lowest PFF pass-rush grade.
The groin injury to tight end Hayden Hurst opens the door for Will Dissly to see more looks in the passing game, and Dissly caught four of five targets last week for 26 yards. Dissly also ran a season-high 19 routes, and I expect him replicate those numbers again against the Cards.
Arizona hasn’t been a matchup dream for opposing tight ends, but they did allow San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle to go for eight receptions and 64 yards on 12 targets. Dissly’s increased role in the passing attack positions him to clear this receiving-yards benchmark, and especially because the Chargers are also dealing with injuries to their wide receiver corps.
Finally, this same-game parlay is trading at just +375 at bet365, so there’s an edge available with the +425 DraftKings price. The difference in the numbers checks out as a positive expected value of 11%.
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