Ohhhh Week 7. A schedule that only a bettor can love, with three primetime games that currently look like dreadful duds, a number of AFC-NFC clashes that are around a touchdown on the look-ahead spread, and then matchups like the Texans/Raiders and Packers/Commanders.
Not exactly exhilarating stuff... so why are we looking past the yet-to-be-played Week 6 to peer into the odds crystal ball?
Because there are a couple of matchups worth the words on this page — and one with NFL odds we should take note of asap.
First, we have a Super Bowl 54 rematch between the Chiefs and the 49ers, which seems pretty reasonably priced right now. There's also an AFC North tilt between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens that might have some betting value right now (and will provide plenty of heartaches later).
Cliffs notes of this line: The total may be worth attacking right now.
Long-winded explanation: Read below to find out!
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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Over 45.5
| Teams | Current total |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns |
Over 45 (-110) |
 Baltimore Ravens |
Under 45 (-110) |
There are two reasons why we're looking at playing the Over for this divisional matchup right now.
First, this total seems off compared to some of the other line movements Baltimore has seen around its totals this season.
The Ravens saw their total close as low as 45.5 last week for a primetime divisional matchup with the Bengals — a much better defensive team than Cleveland. That comes a week after the Ravens closed at around 50.5 against the Bills but in a rainy, wet afternoon contest. What's more of interest is:
- The Ravens closed as high as 45 in Week 3 at New England.
- Baltimore went from 45.5 to 43.5 in Week 2 when hosting the Dolphins, who were coming off a strong defensive effort in a 20-7 win.
- The Ravens opened at 45.5 in Week 1 against a Joe Flacco-led Jets team.
New England and New York — both at the time of those games and, well, now — were perceived as nowhere as efficient offensively as the Browns are entering Week 6. Plus, both defenses are considered much better than the current Cleveland unit, which is a low bar because...
Point 2: the Browns (and Ravens) defenses are really not good.
Each of Baltimore's last two games went Under. Still, the Cincinnati game was more a result of both quarterbacks having arguably their worst games of the season (more than 20% of their throws were graded as "bad") and Lamar Jackson missing two consecutive wide-open TD passes, including this absolute gimme:
Lamar Jackson's pass intended for Tylan Wallace had a completion probability of 65.0%, the 5th-most probable incompletion on a pass 30+ yards downfield in the NGS era (since 2016).
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 10, 2022
The NGS Decision Guide had the call as a "slight go" — by 1.6%.#CINvsBAL | #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/wN2OLWlwZn
As for the Bills game, weather again suppressed passing and offense, plus the Bills have one of the league's elite defenses, so things should look up for the overall offensive prospects in Week 7.
Cleveland started the season with fourth-quarter defensive meltdowns against Baker Mayfield and those same Flacco-led Jets. Then it got a respite in the Steelers and Mitchell Trubisky (an offense so bad Pittsburgh has since gone to rookie Kenny Pickett) before choosing death by running attack the previous two weeks, giving up 202 rushing yards to the Falcons in Week 4 and allowing the Chargers — who were last in the NFL with 258 rushing yards through four games — to run for a whopping 238 in Week 5.
The result is a defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards, third-most yards per carry, fifth-worst yards per completion, and ninth-most points per game,
Cleveland also ranks 30th in weighted defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders), 31st in rush defense Expected Points Added, and 32nd in rushing defense DVOA (by a large margin).
Not to be outdone, the Ravens have allowed the fifth-most total yards, the most passing yards, and seventh-most rushing ypc as they sit 26th in rush defense EPA and rush defense DVOA.
And, oh yes, the Browns are the league's best rushing attack, while the Ravens are in the Top 5.
These are two strong offenses against two horrific defenses — and this is currently a similar total to when Baltimore faced the Bengals (better defense), Pats (much better defense/much worse offense), Dolphins (at the time considered more defensive), and a Jets team with Joe Flacco that was perceived as far, far worse?
Add in uncertainties around Ravens star WR Rashod Bateman (who could play in Week 6 but should play Week 7) and Browns star cornerback Denzel Ward (a less rosy outlook for the next few weeks), which only further help the belief that this total is off right now and will be higher come kickoff for this Sunday afternoon affair.
