It’s been a great NFL betting season for those who like fading favorites, as underdogs have won over 57% of the time through seven weeks. But regression figures to happen soon, and Week 8 could be that time.
We’ve identified four betting favorites representing good NFL odds value this weekend, and have broken them up into Week 8’s NFL parlay picks, which we’ll discuss below.
Week 8 NFL parlay picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Dolphins -3.5 (-107) + Eagles -10 (-110) = +269 at PointsBet
Dolphins -3.5 (-107)
Tua Tagovailoa has been terrific when healthy this year, and unfortunately for the Lions, he’ll be suiting up once more on Sunday.
Tagovailoa went 21-for-35 with 210 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers last week after missing two straight games with concussion-like symptoms. His first two games of the campaign were electrifying, as he completed over 70% of his passes and accumulated 739 yards and seven touchdowns. He could get back to that form against an atrocious Detroit defense that’s allowed the third-highest opponent passer rating in football (102.4) through seven weeks.
The Alabama product has been sacked in only three of his last 117 dropbacks, and the Lions have recorded an NFL-low nine sacks this year. This means Tagovailoa should have an easy time locating Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle throughout this affair.
The Lions’ offense came out like gangbusters in 2022, but sandwiched their bye week with a shutout loss and a mere six-point performance to drop to 1-5 against the Cowboys last Sunday. Jared Goff and company can no longer be counted on to go score-for-score with the opposition.
Eagles -10 (-110)
The Keystone State showdown should be a blowout, and this point spread should be higher. Bettors ought to take advantage of a generous line.
The Eagles — rested off a bye week here — have made a compelling case for being the best team in the NFL, racking up 394.5 yards per game on offense (fifth) while surrendering only 297.8 yards per game (fourth). Jalen Hurts has accounted for six touchdowns through the air and six with his legs. He’s developed a rapport with A.J. Brown, while DeVonta Smith has blossomed into a legit No. 2 threat.
Miles Sanders is averaging 4.6 yards per carry on 105 attempts and has added three scores of his own on the ground. He and Hurts should bludgeon a Steelers defense that’s 28th in yards allowed per game in 2022 (394.3).
Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is unlikely to have much success under center for Pittsburgh against a Philly defense that’s let up only 188 passing yards per game. They’re also second in the NFL in interceptions (nine), and Pickett has already been charged with seven picks in parts of four contests.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: 49ers -1.5 (-110) + Bengals -3 (-110) = +264 at DraftKings
49ers -1.5 (-110)
Their loss in last year’s NFC Championship game aside, the 49ers have owned the Rams of late, and bettors should expect that dominance to continue this week.
San Francisco has beaten L.A. in seven straight regular-season meetings, going 6-1 ATS in that span. They’ve run for no fewer than 88 yards per game in that sample, crossing the 110-yard plateau on five occasions. Now that the Niners have Christian McCaffrey, there’s even more compelling evidence to suggest that they’ll control things on the ground again.
A bye week probably didn’t cure what’s been ailing the Rams’ offense this year, as they just don’t have the same punch without Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. out wide. Matt Stafford’s 6-8 touchdown-interception ratio is particularly alarming, especially as he takes on the third-ranked 49ers defense by yards allowed per game (294.9). Turnovers could prove incredibly costly, as they did in Week 4, when San Fran won 24-9 after forcing two turnovers off Stafford.
Bengals -3 (-110)
The Bengals ought to be getting more respect against the Browns in the Battle of Ohio this Monday night.
After a shaky start to the campaign, Cincinnati appears to have righted the ship with wins over New Orleans and Atlanta. Those NFC South opponents are hardly Super Bowl favorites, but neither is 2-5 Cleveland, losers of four in a row.
The trends are troubling for the Browns, who are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with winning road records, and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 divisional tilts. Meanwhile, the Bengals have covered in eight of their last nine road games.
Cincinnati has outgained the opposition through the air in five straight games, and it figures to happen again as Joe Burrow — third in the NFL in both yardage (2,097) and touchdowns (15) — matches up with Jacoby Brissett, 12th (1,584) and 21st (six) in those respective categories. Ja’Marr Chase won’t be on the gridiron for the Bengals, but Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd can fill his shoes.
