Avalanche vs Blues Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Colorado Capitalizes on Thinned Out St. Louis

The St. Louis Blues traded their captain overnight, and now enter this afternoon’s home game with the defending Stanley Cup champions as decent home underdogs — with a moneyline that is getting longer by the minute.

With the Blues down two of their top-three centermen and not having much time to fix the issue, could it be an easier game for the visitors this afternoon?

Find out my best bets for the Avalanche vs. Blues in my NHL picks. 

Avalanche vs Blues best odds

Avalanche vs Blues picks and predictions

It’s hard not to look at the recent trade of the Blues, sending away their No. 2 and No. 3 centermen, and get excited about the Colorado player prop markets.

Losing your captain in Ryan O'Reilly hurts but both he and Noel Acciari were key contributors on the penalty kill, making this a much easier team to play against today for the visitors. 

The early game is also working to the advantage of the Avs, who have moved from -145 to -165 since the trade. St. Louis could also be without defenseman Torey Krug, which isn’t helping the situation.

There’s a lot to like here in terms of goals from the Avs, who could dominate time of possession today and win the majority of the faceoffs. That’s why I think first-liner and PP1 net-front Artturi Lehkonen recording a point a -125 is the best play here.

He’s shooting more of late (Over 2.5 shots in four straight) and third amongst forwards in time on ice at 21:33 per game on the season. He’s got points in back-to-back games and, in a game I’m projecting the Avs to flirt with five goals in, has better than a 55% chance to steal a point.

He has a point in more than 50% of his games and a chunk of those came without Nathan MacKinnon and/or Val Nichushkin in the lineup. 

It’s tough to go wrong with any top-six props for the Avs and with the possible return of Cale Makar, this offense could be at its best this afternoon vs. a depleted St. Louis team that just lost its captain. 

My best bet: Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 points (-125)

Avalanche vs Blues moneyline analysis

The Blues already shipped off Vlad Tarasenko and still won three straight games. However, after dealing O’Reilly and Acciari to the Leafs last night, this is a very gutted team that's about as thin as any team can be at center. 

O’Reilly wasn’t having a great season, but his absence in the locker room will be a big miss for tonight’s underdogs, as well as the depth he provided to a team that went from having solid three centers to having one.

Robert Thomas is still an elite center and will anchor the top line with Jordan Kyrou and Brayden Schenn, but after that, the team has Nathan Walker, Josh Leivo, and Logan Brown left at center, per Rotowire’s depth chart. They’ll likely make some moves but with the game at 2 p.m. ET, it’s a bit of a scramble.

This is also a team that’s without Brandon Saad while defenseman Torey Krug comes in questionable.

The Avs opened as -165 favorites yesterday and have shortened up as much as 20 points. They’ve taken five of a possible six points over their last three and should be happy with the 3-2 win in Minnesota, which was a great bounce-back spot after blowing a two-goal lead vs. the Bolts the night before and losing in a shootout. 

Colorado could get Cale Makar back today as well, which is worth roughly 20 points alone and despite losing Erik Johnson. They also got Josh Manson back last game and he logged over 20 minutes, had an assist, four hits, and five blocked shots. 

Alex Georgiev has been seeing all the starts with Pavel Francouz out. The No. 1 netminder is coming off a 41-save performance vs. the Wild and owns a stellar .924 SV% since January 1, a stretch of 14 games. 

With the Blues having to pull multiple rosters moves and reorganize the entire bottom-three lines, this is a game I'll be surprised if they don’t give up five goals. Missing centermen hurts in so many aspects of the game and is the most important position on the ice. The Avs could be winning a ton of faceoffs and dominating time of possession this afternoon.

I think this line could touch -190 and think it’s a great spot for the Avs in regulation at -110. 

Avalanche vs Blues Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 6 but Pinnacle moved to 6.5 early in the morning — likely adjusting due to the trade. However, not all books followed suit and many 6s are still available as of 10 a.m. ET.

At 6, this is an Over for me. The Avalanche have such an advantage with the losses of O’Reilly, Acciari, and possibly even Krug. This offense could put up a five-pack today vs. a St. Louis team that has been playing well but will be waking up in shock with the loss of its captain and locker-room leader. 

Jordan Binnington is yet to be confirmed but considering his numbers on the season (3.25 GAA and a .893 SV%), I’m betting against him replicating his last outing’s 34-save performance over the Jack Hughes-less Devils. Missing two key centers will hurt this team defensively and both O’Reilly and Acciari were seeing penalty-kill time, which is also a big blow to the chances of slowing this Avs offense down.

The Blues should still get a chance to match up their top line with the last change. Since the restart, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Brayden Schenn have combined for 17 points and have scored six of the team’s 16 goals. 

There's still plenty of top-talent scoring (especially on the wings) for the Blues and the top power-play unit is unchanged. Getting the last change is also a big deal for the underdogs, who have shown plenty of offense at home since the All-Star Break. 

It’s a tough spot for the Blues but if they can get two goals the Over 6.5 is certainly in play. I’m happy to hit the Over 6 but am likely off the 6.5 and expect all books to close at 6.5.

Avalanche vs Blues betting trend to know

The Avalanche are 7-0 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs Blues.

Avalanche vs Blues game info

Avalanche vs Blues key injuries

Pages related to this topic