The Colorado Avalanche will be on the backend of a traveling back-to-back but that hasn’t stopped the books from pricing them as -145 ML favorites versus a very good Nashville Predators team that is riding a four-game winning streak.
Is this price warranted in this spot, or is Colorado overvalued despite trailing in six straight games? Can the Predators beat the Avs for the second time in less than a month? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Avalanche vs. Predators on Tuesday, January 11.
Avalanche vs Predators odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Predators opened as +135 home dogs but have seen some money move that price down to +125 with an opening total of 6 that has hit 6.5 at plenty of books. Nashville closed as +130 home dogs back on December 16 in a 5-2 victory versus backup Pavel Francouz.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Avalanche vs Predators predictions
Predictions made on 1/11/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Avalanche vs Predators game info
• Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
• Date: Tuesday, January 11, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+
Avalanche vs Predators betting preview
Injuries
Avalanche: Gabriel Landeskog F (Doubtful).
Predators: Filip Forsberg F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Avalanche vs Predators head-to-head record (since 2018)
Avalanche: 8-8 SU, 45 goals for.
Predators: 8-8 SU, 45 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Predators are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Predators.
Avalanche vs Predators picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
It’s tough not to think that this is a high-point in terms of market value for the Avalanche, as they enter Tuesday’s game as -145 favorites despite playing a shaky game last night versus Seattle and possibly not having captain Gabriel Landeskog (COVID).
The Avalanche needed another third-period comeback to beat the expansion team 4-3 last night as the betting favorite to win the Cup (+375) has struggled to play a full 60 minutes of hockey since the restart. Over their last six games, the Avs have trailed in five and have trailed at some point in the final frame in three straight games. This team has been getting bailed out by the league’s best offense, but facing one of the best defensive teams in the Predators, the results could be different tonight.
Nashville is tied for the best goals against on home ice at 2.13 per game. Tonight’s probable starter, Juuse Saros, has a 1.87 GAA at home this season and picked up the 24-save victory against Colorado a month ago. The Finnish goalie has been one of the better netminders this season and has picked up the victory in nine of his last 10 starts. He owns a .940 SV% over that stretch.
Shutting out the Avalanche is out of the question as this team has scored at least four goals in 12 of its last 13 games. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanan are on fire, but if Sarros can minimize the damage to two or three goals, this Nashville offense — averaging 3.50 goals per game over its last 10 — should be able to go toe-to-toe.
In the last meeting on December 16, the Predators finished with 2.9 xgoals in the 5-2 victory as Saros finished with 0.9 goals saved above expected. The Predators will also have a great matchup for their power play that has 11 goals over its last 10 games. The Avalanche have been struggling against opposing power plays and have surrendered a PP goal in six straight games.
The glaring weakness for the Avalanche is between the pipes. Pavel Francouz drew the start yesterday at home versus the Kraken, so Darcy Kuemper is likely in for tonight’s meeting. Kuemper lasted just eight shots in his previous start and allowed three goals to the Maple Leafs before getting pulled. With most No. 1 goalies, we’d expect a bounceback, but Kuemper owns a -0.052 goals saved above expected/60 on the season, which ranks below Martin Jones.
Filip Forsberg will likely be a spectator for the Preds but his absence will be a wash, with Gabriel Landeskog also unlikely to suit up for the Avs.
This line is starting to move towards the Preds and we think this is an overvaluation of the Avalanche, who will be on the backend of a traveling back-to-back and look weak in net.
Prediction: Predators ML (+125)
Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 6, headed north quickly and was at 6.5 by 10 am. Colorado has closed at 6.5 in each of its last three games and should have likely opened at 6.5 here. This is one of the best offenses in NHL history, as no team has averaged more than 4.00 goals per game in any season since the early 90s. The offense has been even better since the restart and is scoring 4.80 goals per game. It's coming off a game where the Avs scored five goals against one of the best goalies in hockey in Jack Campbell, who finished that game with a neutral goals saved above expected.
Betting the Under against the Avalanche is a dangerous way to live. They are a league-best 22-6-4 to the Over on the year and are 5-0-1 to the Over in their last six. Nathan MacKinnon has a 13-game point streak (23 points) and had 12 shots on net last Saturday. The Colorado defense has also stepped it up offensively of late, with eight goals in the team’s last five games. We could see plenty of defensemen on the scoresheet as the Predators also get a lot of contribution from their blueline.
Saros is hot, but keeping this Colorado offense in check is nearly impossible. Over their last 15 games, they’ve scored under three goals just once and that was versus Nashville in a game that hit the Over on a total of 6.
If you missed the 6, and are hesitant of the 6.5, perhaps you can look to team totals, but we are definitely leaning on the Over and doubt we could bring ourselves to hit the Under in a Colorado game with poor goaltending.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-105)
Best bet
The Avalanche cannot rely on third-period comebacks forever. This is a team that fell behind to Seattle and Chicago in recent games and has failed to dominate games as heavy favorites. Nashville has been unlucky in terms of wins at home as it owns a 2.19 GAA on home ice but is just 10-5 SU. More wins should be coming.
This is as good a spot as Nashville will see vs. Colorado. Paying +125, having a massive advantage in net and sporting an offense that has proven it can outscore the Avs, we’re taking some plus-money action and hoping Kuemper lays another dud.
Pick: Predators ML (+125)
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