There is a Central Division tilt on Saturday afternoon with the first-place Dallas Stars hosting the third-place Colorado Avalanche. In a game with big playoff implications, Dallas looks to hold onto the one seed while Colorado only trails by six points with three games in hand.
Will Dallas protect home ice, or can the visitors pull off the upset as short road underdogs? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Avalanche vs Stars on Saturday, March 4.
Avalanche vs Stars best odds
Avalanche vs Stars picks and predictions
Saturday afternoon features a terrific divisional matchup on ABC between two playoff teams. Despite the Dallas Stars currently holding the one seed, the Colorado Avalanche are shooting up the division standings as these two teams enter this contest in opposite form.
Entering this matchup, the Avs have won six of their last seven games. As is typically the case with Colorado this year, its elite defense is the main reason for these tremendous results.
Across those seven contests, the Avs surrendered an average of just 2.4 goals per game. This season, at 5-on-5, Colorado ranks seventh in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Backing up this strong two-way team is goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, who has been tremendous between the pipes this season. Through 42 starts, Georgiev is 26-12-4 with a .921 SV% and 2.57 goals GAA.
Not only has he been strong all season, but Georgiev enters this contest in particularly dominant form. Over his last seven starts, he is 6-0-1 with a .940 SV% and 2.09 GAA.
Based on his metrics, regression is unlikely for the Avs’ netminder. Among starting goaltenders, Georgiev ranks fifth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
This stellar play is likely to continue against Dallas, a club Georgiev typically dominates. Over the last two seasons against the Stars, he is 2-0 with a .955 SV% and 1.44 GAA.
Colorado was dealing with a ton of injuries early in the season and also likely had the “post-Cup hangover”. But with the season entering the final stretch, the defending champs look exactly as dominant as they did last season.
My best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-106 at BetRivers)
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Avalanche vs Stars moneyline analysis
By far, the biggest concern in backing Colorado is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who is slated to start between the pipes for Dallas. Like Georgiev, Oettinger is having a monstrous season, and is likely the main reason that the Stars are favored other than the fact that this game is taking place at the American Airlines Center.
Through 46 appearances in the crease this season, Oettinger is 25-8-10 with a .923 SV% and 2.29 GAA. His underlying metrics are also magnificent, although he ranks two spots lower than Georgiev in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.
Additionally, Oettinger has had some tougher starts recently. Over his last four outings, he is 2-1-1 with a .897 SV% and 3.23 GAA.
The Avs have won three of the last four meetings between these two clubs, a trend likely to continue in this matchup.
Avalanche vs Stars Over/Under analysis
I would lean towards the Under in this contest, but am more confident in just backing Colorado to win. The Under is typically a strong bet when these two clubs meet, cashing in each of the last five meetings and in six of the last seven.
This trend is not shocking considering that both teams rank in the top half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. On top of great defensive play, both goaltenders are putting together elite seasons.
Entering this game, both Georgiev and Oettinger rank in the Top 7 among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. While Oettinger has had some shaky starts recently, I trust him to figure things out.
However, with that said, I think Colorado is a stronger play on the moneyline than taking the Under at six.
Avalanche vs Stars betting trend to know
The Avs have won six of their last seven games. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Stars. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs Stars.
Avalanche vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, March 4, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Dallas, Altitude |
