The NHL travels to Finland this weekend as a two-game series between the Colorado Avalanche and Columbus Blue Jackets starts Friday. Last season, the Over hit in each of the two meetings between these two clubs.
Will we get another high-scoring affair, or can the goaltending step up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Blue Jackets vs Avalanche on November 4.
Blue Jackets vs Avalanche best odds
Blue Jackets vs Avalanche picks and predictions
The Over has been a strong bet for each team this season, going 12-7 through 19 combined games. This trend should continue into this game, which should be a treat for a Finnish crowd rooting for goals early and often.
One of the worst defensive teams in hockey this year, the Blue Jackets rank just 23rd in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. Poor defensive play is a trend that has started to develop under head coach Brad Larsen through his first two years as a bench manager. Last season, Columbus finished 31st in the league in GA and 32nd in xGA.
Backing up this poor defense is the worst statistical starting goaltender in hockey this season. Through seven appearances between the pipes this season, Elvis Merzlikins possesses a troubling .864 save percentage and 4.75 goals against average. At 5v5, he ranks dead last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60).
On the other side of the ice, we have an Avalanche defense that is due for some regression. At 5v5, Colorado ranks second in GA/60 but just 17th in xGA/60. Whether that regression hits in this contest obviously remains to be seen, but it would not be shocking considering the firepower that Columbus possesses between Johnny Gaudreau and a now-healthy Patrik Laine.
Additionally, some of the young guns on the Blue Jackets are starting to find a rhythm. Kent Johnson, Yegor Chinakhov, and Jack Roslovic are all posting results and looking more confident as the season progresses.
Meanwhile, Colorado’s powerhouse offense needs no introduction with some of the most talented skaters on the planet, including Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar. Those guys should have a field day against a Columbus defense that gives up plenty of high-danger scoring chances and is starting the worst analytical goaltender in the league.
My best bet: Over 6.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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Blue Jackets vs Avalanche moneyline analysis
Colorado should have no issue taking care of business against the lowly Blue Jackets. On paper, they boast the better offense, defense, goaltender, coach, and about any other aspect one could think of.
Obviously, bookmakers agree, as the Avs are nearly -300 favorites on the moneyline. In the beautiful sport of hockey, however, no team is ever worth laying that kind of juice on, regardless of the matchup.
With the price of –1.5 hovering between +100 and +110, that is not enough risk-for-reward in a neutral site game overseas against another competent offense.
Blue Jackets vs Avalanche Over/Under analysis
The only reservation to make in taking the Over is that goaltender Alexandar Georgiev is slated to take the crease for the Avs. It is a safe assumption that Colorado scores three or more goals in this contest, so Georgiev just needs to allow two or three to push this game over the total.
In his last start against Columbus, he allowed four goals on just 18 shots for a mere .778 SV%. Georgiev’s surface-level stats and underlying metrics are all strong this year, but is regression still possible for a guy who was below replacement level as a backup last season? Through 33 appearances last season, Georgiev posted a mere .898 SV% and 2.92 GAA serving as Shesterkin’s backup in New York.
Facing an offensively talented roster, Georgiev should allow a couple of goals, and that should be enough to cash the Over.
Blue Jackets vs Avalanche betting trend to know
Seven or more total goals have been scored in Columbus’ last nine games. Find more NHL betting trends for Blue Jackets vs Avalanche.
Blue Jackets vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Nokia Arena, Tampere, Finland |
| Date: | Friday, November 4, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NHL Network |
