Pittsburgh Penguins superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both chasing down historic milestones with the Buffalo Sabres visiting PPG Paints Arena on Wednesday, October 16.
Unfortunately for the home crowd, my top Sabres vs. Penguins predictions and NHL picks are expecting Buffalo to hold Pittsburgh in check in a low-scoring tilt tonight.
Sabres vs Penguins prediction
My best bet
Under 6.5 (-114 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Buffalo Sabres have been incredibly stingy the past two games since returning to North America, allowing just two goals, 2.06 expected goals, and eight high-danger scoring chances with a 59.8 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.
Sabres No. 1 goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen also finished last season among the league’s best with his .918 save percentage, 2.30 GAA, and 0.41 goals saved above average per 60 minutes, all ranking Top 5 following the holiday break.
Luukkonen sports respective .886, 2.56, and -0.43 ratios through his two 2024-25 starts, so improved play should be ahead.
I also value the Buffalo Top 4 defense corps featuring a pair of first overall selections in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power partnering with Henri Jokiharju and Bowen Byram, respectively. Dating back to last season, Dahlin and Jokiharju have a 55.5 CF%, and Power and Bowen have a 52.5% mark.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been sneaky-good to start the season with a 55.6 CF% and 54.7 xGF% at 5-on-5, too, and they project to have statistical correction coming to help this Under. The Penguins won’t maintain an 11.3% team shooting percentage and also have positive regression ahead of their .880 team SV% at 5-on-5.
I’m anticipating the Sabres holding the Penguins offense in check, while Pittsburgh No. 1 Tristan Jarry builds off his first win of the season last time out and continues to improve on his .866 SV% and 4.50 GAA.
Sabres vs Penguins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6.5
Sabres moneyline
Under 1.5 goals first 10 mins
The case for the Sabres moneyline was outlined in the best bet. Buffalo has battened down the hatches defensively, and Luukkonen’s best is straight ahead. Additionally, Pittsburgh doesn’t have the offensive firepower to maintain its shooting efficiency, and the Penguins don’t have the same top-to-bottom depth jumping the boards as the Sabres.
Plus, even with Jarry set to improve on his poor numbers to start the season, I still give Buffalo the edge in goal. There have only been five first-period goals across the first four games for the Sabres, too.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sabres vs Penguins odds
Sabres vs Penguins live odds
Sabres vs Penguins opening odds
- Puck line: Buffalo +1.5 | Pittsburgh -1.5
- Moneyline: Buffalo +121 | Pittsburgh -136
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Sabres vs Penguins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a move to the Buffalo side of this moneyline at Pinnacle. The Sabres opened at +121 and are trading at +112 as of Wednesday morning.
- This adjustment also aligns with my analysis for including the Sabres moneyline in the bet365 same-game parlay.
- Both Pinnacle and bet365 moved off their opening total of 6 and climbed to 6.5. The two shops currently have the higher vig attached to the Under.
- Obviously, I think the move to a 6.5 total was an overreaction because I bet the Under.
Sabres vs Penguins trend
The Sabres have hit the Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+14.85 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs. Penguins.
Sabres vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-16-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Sabres vs Penguins latest injuries
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