The Toronto Maple Leafs host the St. Louis Blues at Scotiabank Arena tonight. The Leafs have won eight of their last 10 games and oddsmakers are expecting them to pick up another victory today with NHL betting lines installing them as -200 favorites.
Here are our best free Blues vs. Maple Leafs NHL picks and predictions for Saturday, February 19 with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET.
Blues vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with Toronto the favorite at -163 before shifting to -208. The Over/Under opened at 6.5 and has seen movement down to 6 at some books. When these teams previously faced off on January 15 the Leafs won 6-5 as -191 road favorites.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Blues vs Maple Leafs predictions
Predictions made on 2/19/2022 at 1:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Blues vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, City TV, SN360
Blues vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Blues: Vladimir Tarasenko RW (Out), Marco Scandella D (Out), Scott Perunovich (Out).
Maple Leafs: None.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Blues vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2018-19
Blues: 3-2, goals for 17.
Maple Leafs: 2-3, goals for 16.
Betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Maple Leafs.
Blues vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Buds have won eight of their previous 10 games and sit fifth in the league with a 32-12-3 record. The Blues are coming off a 3-2 overtime loss to the Canadiens on Thursday and have the 11th best record in the NHL at 28-14-6. It's a bit disappointing that they have just two wins in their last four games, since they've faced off against some of the league's worst teams in the Habs, Senators, Blackhawks, and Devils.
At least they seem to have settled on a starting goaltender, with Ville Husso taking over for the struggling Jordan Binnington. Husso is 8-2 with a 1.55 GAA and a .945 SV% since the start of the new year and he's been getting plenty of support from a surging Blues offense. St. Louis is sixth in the league with 3.48 goals per game while ranking second on the power play.
That said, the Maple Leafs have been slightly more impressive offensively, ranking fourth in the league with 3.60 gpg while leading the NHL with a 31.8 PP%. They've also gotten strong goaltending from Jack Campbell who is 23-7-3 with a 2.34 GAA and a .924 SV%.
There are lots of similarities between these teams lately, they can both put the puck in the net, have strong starting goaltenders, and excel on special teams. But two areas where Toronto has a big edge is controlling the puck and dominating in the faceoff circle. The Leafs have a league-best faceoff win percentage of 56%, while the Blues rank 17th. And the Leafs rank ninth in the league in Fenwick For Percentage in 5-on-5 play and the Blues rank just 25th.
Home ice could also play a big factor in this one, with the Leafs going 18-4-1 at Scotiabank Arena this season while the Blues are just 2-7 in their last nine games as road underdogs. Take Toronto on the three-way moneyline
Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way moneyline (-135)
Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams have been filling up the net lately but they'll also be attempting to beat a red-hot goaltender. Campbell has been a bit inconsistent lately but he's coming off an incredible performance against the Penguins when he turned aside 45 of 46 shots in a 4-1 win.
Campbell has still been very solid throughout the season and will be trying to bounce back from an ugly game in St. Louis a month ago when he surrendered five goals on 25 shots. Luckily for Campbell, the Blues' offense has been far less effective on the road where they average 3.09 gpg, compared to 3.81 gpg at home.
Husso has also been terrific lately and now leads all qualifying netminders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. With the Under going 6-2-2 in Husso's previous 10 starts, back it again tonight.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-120)
Best bet
With the Over/Under opening at a very high 6.5, it really doesn't seem that either goalie is getting enough love. Husso is playing out of his skin right now while Campbell has been reliable all season.
After combining for 11 goals when they previously clashed last month, we could see a tighter-checking game with more of a focus on defense. Add in a St. Louis offense that doesn't do a great job of creating chances on the road and will be missing leading scorer Vladimir Tarasenko, and the Under is looking like the play.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-120)
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