The Boston Bruins sit at a league-best 8-1-0 and are riding a five-game winning streak ahead of their Tuesday meeting with the Pittsburgh Penguins — losers of four straight. Now with Brad Marchand back, don’t be surprised if the Bruins close as the favorites tonight after opening at -105 with a total of 6.5.
With the injury to second-line center David Krejci, Pavel Zacha has a great chance tonight to top his point total and give us the ability to profit on his NHL player props with odds that haven’t adjusted to his new and profitable role.
Find out more in my free NHL betting picks and predictions for Bruins vs. Penguins.
Bruins vs Penguins best odds
Bruins vs Penguins picks and predictions
The Devils took Pavel Zacha with the sixth-overall pick in 2015 and the center never found a top-six spot in New Jersey. Now in Boston, he has a chance to roll with elite talent tonight as David Krejci is out and Zacha slides into the No. 2 center roll.
#NHLBruins updates per Coach Montgomery:
— Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) October 31, 2022
?? David Krejci "is going to travel with us. He’s out tomorrow night and most likely out Thursday."
?? Charlie McAvoy is "ahead of schedule. He’s ahead of December 1, but he’s just starting in his progression." pic.twitter.com/Pg9op4JAOW
Getting Zacha to record a point at +105 while playing between David Pastrnak and Taylor Hall is a gift for bettors. Krejci was regularly priced at -145ish in the same role. Pastrnak is averaging a point per game at even strength while Hall sits second on the team in 5-on-5 points.
The Zacha line should also get plenty of offensive zone starts as Pastrnak is getting roughly 25% of his shifts in the O-zone at even strength. Being a center, there is even more value on this for Zacha as he gets more touches.
This is also a great spot for the Bruins’ offense in general. The Pens are giving up over 35 shots per game which is a Bottom 5 mark and possible starter, Tristan Jarry, carries a GAA north of 3.00 on the season.
This is another example of books being slow to adjust to line changes. This should at least be -135 and I fully expect this number to be gone in Boston’s next game.
My best bet: Pavel Zacha Over 0.5 points (+105)
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Bruins vs Penguins moneyline analysis
The Bruins might be the most surprising team through the first month of the NHL season. They’ve lost just one game across nine matches, have the league’s best goal differential at +18, are first in goals per game at 4.22, and sit second in goals allowed per game at 2.33.
Jim Montgomery has this team playing elite hockey and although second-line center David Krejci is out, Brad Marchand is back and Pavel Zacha is a seamless fit for Krejci’s role.
The real strength of this Boston team has been in net with the play of Linus Ullmark. Out of nowhere, the goalie has begun the season 6-0 with a 1.70 GAA and a .945 SV%. Ullmark has never been an elite goalie so these numbers have a lot to do with Montgomery’s system. Ullmark sits 17th in goals saved above expected/60 and benefits from a team that sits third in expected goals against per game at 5-on-5.
It’s going to be tough for the Pens to earn a point tonight vs. a Boston team that has shown zero weaknesses this season — even the B's penalty kill ranks second.
Pittsburgh comes in riding a four-game losing skid. All four losses came on a four-game West Coast road trip and tonight will be the first game back after Saturday's 3-1 loss to the Kraken. The first game back from a West Coast road trip is never a good spot to back a team as they can sometimes “sleepwalk” while adjusting to the three-hour time loss.
The Pens have scored one goal in three straight games and now have to face one of the best system defensive teams along with the hottest goalie in hockey. Pittsburgh has been much better at home offensively — scoring 18 goals over three games — but getting stifled by the Kraken and Canucks in back-to-back games doesn’t leave me with a ton of confidence in its ability to tally tonight vs. the Bs.
Jake Guentzel is back in the Pittsburgh lineup, but Jeff Carter is doubtful and No. 1 defenseman Kris Letang missed practice Monday with an illness. Jeff Petry was taking reps on the top power play with Letang out but with a team that was already struggling to find the back of the net, these potential absences aren’t making things better.
Adding Pittsburgh's injuries along with a miserable West Coast roadie, this might be one of the best prices and spots for the Bruins all season at -105. They have also covered -1.5 in six of their eight wins and an alternate puck line play at +215 is live tonight.
Bruins vs Penguins Over/Under analysis
On the season, these two teams are a combined 10-7 to the Over but Ullmark’s play in net is keeping me off the Over today.
The Boston goalie has allowed one or fewer goals in four of his last five games and is coming off a 30-save shutout vs. the Jackets. He also hasn’t seen more than 31 shots in any of those games.
Pittsburgh possibly not having Kris Letang is also a blow to its offense. Letang is the quarterback on the power play and also drives the offensive play at even strength.
The Boston PK has been elite this season and has killed 31 of its 33 penalties.
The Pens' offense has also gone dormant scoring just once in three straight games. The first game back from a West Coast trip is not usually a great spot to expect offense. Many former players suggest the first game back is a letdown spot more times than not as teams adjust to the time change and the secondary things that come with returning home.
If bettors are looking to back goals, the Boston team total of 3.5 paying +125 for the Over is much more appetizing. The Bruins potted five goals in Marchand’s return last week and his presence on the top line makes this Boston team infinitely more difficult to match up against — even on the road.
The Bruins' power play also scored three times in that 5-1 win over Detroit and now faces a Pittsburgh penalty kill that sits 28th in the league.
I’m expecting this 6.5 total to drop as game time approaches.
Bruins vs Penguins betting trend to know
The Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs Penguins.
Bruins vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 1, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
