Bruins vs Red Wings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Defenses Shut Things Down in Detroit

For the second time in as many days, an Atlantic Division tilt will kick off Sunday’s NHL slate on TNT, with the seventh-place Detroit Red Wings hosting the first-place Boston Bruins.

Low-scoring affairs are typically in-store when these two clubs square off, with six or fewer total goals scored in 10 of the last 12 meetings, including Boston's 3-2 victory in yesterday’s game.

Will we see another low-scoring affair, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Bruins vs Red Wings on Sunday, March 12.

Bruins vs Red Wings best odds

Bruins vs Red Wings picks and predictions

The Boston Bruins enter this contest amidst a flurry of low-scoring contests, with six or fewer total goals scored in nine of their last 13 games. The main reasons for these low-scoring affairs are Boston’s elite blueline and goaltending.

The Bruins rank third in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Backing up this dominant defense is goaltender Jeremy Swayman, who is one half of the best goaltender tandem in hockey.

Swayman is 16-5-4 with a .916 SV% and a 2.30 GAA through 27 appearances in the crease this season. Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for Boston’s backup netminder.

If he qualified, Swayman would rank third among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Across the ice, goaltender Ville Husso is slated to start between the pipes for the Detroit Red Wings, and should be a strong candidate to back.

Husso is 24-16-6 with a .903 SV% and a 2.93 GAA through 47 starts this season. Over his three career appearances against the Bruins, Husso possesses a .908 SV% and a 3.33 GAA.

Making Husso’s life easier is the Wings’ underrated blueline. Detroit ranks 13th in the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. 

However, the Wings’ biggest weakness is their extremely thin offense that ranks second-to-last in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at even strength. This matchup features two strong goaltenders, two defenses that rank in the top half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5, and two offenses that fail to crack the Top 15 in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. 

Considering all of these variables, the Under is once again the play to make at 6.5.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-125 at BetMGM)

Bruins vs Red Wings moneyline analysis

I would lean toward the Bruins in this contest, but have absolutely no interest in laying -250 on the moneyline. The only way I would consider backing Boston in this contest is by taking its puck line at -110, but there is not enough reward in that line to lay 1.5 goals, especially considering the Bruins won but did not cover in yesterday’s game.

Boston is better offensively, defensively, and in net. Quite simply, the Bruins are the far superior team in every aspect of the game, so it makes sense why they are such heavy favorites against the seventh-place Red Wings.

However, Husso is more than capable of stealing a game, and although he likely will not come out victorious in this matchup, it is not unreasonable to think he can keep this contest to a one-goal game, just like Magnus Hellberg did in yesterday’s contest. It is also worth noting that Detroit has won seven of the last 12 meetings between these two clubs.

Bruins vs Red Wings Over/Under analysis

All the trends point to the Under cashing on back-to-back days between these two teams. There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 10 their last 12 meetings, in nine of Boston’s last 13 games, and in seven of the Wings’ last 11.

Additionally, the makeup of each team also suggests taking the Under. Both clubs rank in the top half of the league in xGA/60 but fail to crack the Top 15 of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Both goaltenders are also trustworthy, with each projected start ranking in the top half among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. Not only is Swayman excelling in the backup role this season, but his track record against Detroit is tremendous.

Through four career starts against the Wings, Swayman is 3-1 with a .927 SV% and a 1.77 GAA.

Bruins vs Red Wings betting trend to know

There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs Red Wings.

Bruins vs Red Wings game info

Bruins vs Red Wings key injuries

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