Canadiens vs Flames Picks: Calgary Turning Up The Heat on Habs

The Flames are making a late push to catch Montreal for the final playoff spot in the North Division. The Habs will try to halt Calgary's momentum with a victory in tonight's critical matchup.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Apr 26, 2021 • 15:46 ET
Eric Staal Montreal Canadiens Mark Giordano Calgary Flames NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The NHL betting board has eight games on Monday, beginning with a clash between the Montreal Canadiens and Calgary Flames at 6:30 p.m. ET. 

This is the final contest in a three-game set in Calgary and with the Flames winning the first two games in this series they are looking to finish the sweep and close the gap with the Habs for the final playoff spot in the North Division.

Here are our best free Canadiens vs. Flames picks and predictions for Monday, April 26.

Canadiens vs Flames odds

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NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Calgary is up a few cents to -138 as of 3:45 p.m. ET today at FanDuel, after opening -134 Sunday evening. Moneyline ticket count and dollars are both running in the 2/1 range on the Flames. The total is pinned to 5.5, on an opening price of Under -118 and current price of Under -124, with the Over getting 58 percent of bets/51 percent of cash.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Canadiens at Flames betting preview

Injuries

Canadiens: Tomas Tatar LW (Questionable), Paul Byron LW (Questionable), Jonathan Drouin LW (Questionable), Carey Price G (Out), Brendan Gallagher RW (Out).
Flames: Noah Hanifin D (Questionable), Josh Leivo LW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Flames are 1-5 in their last six games as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Flames.

Moneyline pick

This is a crucial battle in the North Division with Montreal holding on to fourth place — and the final playoff spot — but sitting just four points ahead of the Flames. Calgary has closed the gap not just by winning the first two games in this series but by winning six of the last seven games in the head-to-head going back to January 30.

The Habs have hit a snag at the worst possible time, going 3-8 in their last 11 games, and will have to get by without star goaltender Carey Price, who is receiving treatment for a concussion he suffered last Monday. 

All that considered, the Canadiens have the pieces in place to turn around and beat the Flames tonight. Backup goaltender Jake Allen will get the start and the veteran has been steady for Montreal, posting a 2.57 goals-against average with a save percentage of .912 in 21 games. 

As a matter of fact, Allen's numbers are better than Calgary's high-priced off-season acquisition Jacob Markstrom, who is 17-16-1 with a 2.75 GAA and a .903 SV%. 

On the other end of the ice, Montreal ranks a respectable 13th in the league with 2.89 goals per game while generating the seventh-most high danger chances per 60 minutes at even strength. The Flames are just 22nd in scoring with 2.68 goals per game while ranking 18th in even-strength HDCF/60. 

Although the Canadiens were outshot 31-20 when these teams met up on Friday, they typically dominate possession, ranking fourth in the NHL in Fenwick For Rating at even strength. 

The Habs have their backs against the wall after losing the last two games and need to put on a strong performance today. Saturday's game with Cayden Primeau in nets for Montreal was practically like waving a white flag but with Allen back between the pipes today, the Canadiens should be much more competitive. Back the Canadiens as short dogs. 

PREDICTION: Montreal (+110)

Over/Under pick

Although the Habs have been effective at putting the puck in the net for most of the season, they've struggled in that area lately, averaging just 1.82 gpg over their last 11 contests. 

That said, the Flames have been near the bottom of the league in goals scored since the start of the year and have struggled to get much going in 5v5 hockey.

Although the first two games in this week's series have gone above the total, the Under is still a commanding 10-3-2 in the last 15 meetings between these teams. And when Allen was in nets on Friday, it took a last-second empty-net goal from Elias Lindholm to cash the Over.

The Flames are 9-4-3 to the Under in their last 16 games while the Habs are 12-5 to the Under in their previous 17 as a road underdog. With the Under also going 5-1-1 in Montreal's last seven games following a loss of three or more goals, expect a better defensive effort from the Canadiens tonight and take the Under. 

PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-110)

Canadiens vs Flames betting card

  • Montreal (+110)
  • Under 5.5 (-110)

Picks made on 4/26/2021 at 9:20 a.m. ET

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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