The Winnipeg Jets are a huge home-ice favorite in the NHL odds against the visiting Montreal Canadiens tonight.
Winnipeg is cruising along on an 11-4 heater, and No. 1 goalie Connor Hellebuyck is building a Vezina Trophy case along the way. He’s allowed two goals or fewer in 10 consecutive starts, and the Jets are now two points back of the Colorado Avalanche in the Central Division with two games in hand.
Montreal brings a 13-13-4 record to the ‘Peg, and they’ve scored the third-fewest goals with the second-worst scoring differential in the Eastern Conference. I anticipate the Canadiens to struggle to score again.
Here are my free NHL picks for the Canadiens vs. Jets showdown on Monday, December 18.
Canadiens vs Jets odds
Canadiens vs Jets predictions
The Montreal Canadiens don’t have a dangerous collection of skaters jumping the boards, and their expected goals per 60 minutes drops from a respectable 3.32 at home to a 29th-ranked 2.67 mark on the road.
This gap in the numbers isn’t surprising, either. With the benefit of last change, the Habs are an easy team to match up against because of their lack of scoring depth. Montreal is the only team in the league without a double-digit goalscorer, after all.
The Winnipeg Jets will have each of their top-six defensemen in the lineup and, as noted, No. 1 goalie Connor Hellebuyck is dialed in. Not only does he boast an elite .940 save percentage during the highlighted 11-4 stretch, but he’s also pacing the NHL in goals saved above average (11.86).
It has resulted in Winnipeg allowing just 1.56 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during the surge, and the Jets have also been more disciplined with only 36 minor penalties taken at 6-on-5 and just 4:26 of shorthanded ice time per game — both eighth fewest in the NHL.
Finally, my numbers are also showing a decent edge in backing the Canadiens to score fewer than three goals.
| SIA price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| -143 | 2.15 | -176 | 8% |
My best bet: Canadiens Under 2.5 goals (-143 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Canadiens vs Jets same-game parlay
Jets moneyline
Canadiens Under 2.5
First period Under 1.5
The Jets moneyline and first period Under both align with my best bet. Montreal has scored the fewest first-period goals (17) in the league, averaging just 0.56 per game, while Winnipeg ranks eighth last with 23 goals across 29 games (0.79 per).
Additionally, based on my offensive and defensive ratings, I’d price Winnipeg as a -237 home favorite, which isn’t too far off the -250 SIA price.
For reference, I have Winnipeg sporting the 21st-ranked offense and 13th-ranked defense, with Montreal checking out with respective 28th- and 27th-ranked marks.
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Canadiens vs Jets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There has been consistent movement to the Winnipeg side of this moneyline at SIA. The Jets opened at -225 and are now trading at the noted -250 price. Similarly, the Under has moved from an opening 6.0 (+100) to 6.0 (-115). Considering the Over 6.0 was originally the side of the total carrying the higher vig, I wouldn’t expect to see this number move ahead of puck drop.
Canadiens vs Jets betting trend to know
The total has gone Under in eight of Winnipeg's last 12 games and four of Montreal’s past five road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Jets.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Canadiens vs Jets game info
| Location: | Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date: | Monday, December 18, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RDS, SN |
Canadiens vs Jets latest injuries
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