We have 11 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including the Battle of Ontario as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Arena.
The Sens have controlled this matchup lately, but Leafs winger William Nylander has been a driving force offensively, and I’m eyeing his low shot prop total as an appealing option for tonight’s Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators best bet.
Find out why with my free NHL picks for this March 15 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction
My Leafs pick: William Nylander O 2.5 shots (-140 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
It’s time to ignite the rivalry as we approach the third and final installment of the Battle of Ontario for the 2024-25 season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs look to avoid being swept by the Senators this season after losing the first two games of the season series 2-1 and 3-0.
Meanwhile, the Ottawa Senators are surging heading into this marquee matchup, winning five in a row while also having Toronto number, winning five of the last six games between the two Ontario squads.
Goal scoring has been tough to come by for the Leafs over that six-game stretch, averaging just 2.16 goals per game. However, it hasn't been a lack of effort, as Toronto still averages 29.8 shots in those contests, with William Nylander leading the charge.
Nylander averages 4.16 shots per game in his last six outings against Ottawa, going over his betting total of 2.5 shots in each of those meetings.
I project him to do the same tonight against a Senators team that has been leaky defensively over their last 10 games, ranking 30th in the NHL, surrendering 32.9 shots per contest.
The Swedish winger leads all Maple Leafs with 213 shots on goal this season, averaging 3.27 per game. Nylander has surpassed tonight’s 2.5 shot prop total in three of his last five games, including a six-shot performance against the Panthers Thursday night where he appeared to have some jump.
I’m hoping he can build on that performance and dominate the sheet again tonight while peppering the goaltender with a high volume of shots.
Additionally, the Sens are the sixth most penalized team in the league. The Maple Leafs rely heavily on PP1, which gives Nylander a lot of offensive zone-time throughout a game, and he’s been a 1A/1B shooting option on the man advantage for the Buds this season– just more opportunities to get the 3+ shots needed to cash the Over.
Maple Leafs vs Senators same-game parlay (SGP)
William Nylander 3+ shots on goal
Auston Matthews anytime goal scorer
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
Let’s add the best bet as the first leg of the SGP and take William Nylander to register 3+ shots on the net.
Next up in the SGP, we’ll continue with shot props and take Auston Matthews to record 3+ shots on goal tonight as well.
He’s been unlucky with his shooting lately, but it hasn't stopped him from firing pucks on the net. He’s averaging 3.9 shots per game over his last 10 games and has a career average of 3.91 shots on goal against Ottawa.
For the final leg of our SGP, I’ll stick with the Matthews theme and bet on him to score an anytime goal. The Leafs captain has been snakebitten lately with just three goals in his last 16 games, but he’s not going to have a shooting percentage of 4.5% much longer.
That has to turn around soon and why not in a big Saturday night matchup against a Sens team he’s fared well against throughout his career with 24 goals in 34 contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Senators odds
Maple Leafs vs Senators live odds
Maple Leafs vs Senators opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+155) | Ottawa +1.5 (-190)
- Moneyline: Toronto (-160) | Ottawa (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-110) | Under Under 6 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Senators trend
The Over is a combined 15-5 in the last 10 games for the Sens and Leafs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Senators
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Senators latest injuries
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