It’s been over four months since the Montreal Canadiens eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs but on Wednesday night, a new-look Toronto team will try to begin the season with a payback victory over its historic rivals.
The Leafs opened at -165 on the ML (+137 PL) with an NHL betting total of 5.5 trending upwards and already hitting 6 on a few books.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs for Wednesday, October 13.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Canadiens vs Maple Leafs picks
Picks made on 10/12/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Canadiens vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, October 13, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Canadiens: Carey Price G (Out), Shea Weber D (Out), Cedric Paquette F (Questionable), Jonathan Drouin F (Questionable).
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Out), Ilya Mikheyev F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record
Canadiens: 3-6-1, 25 goals for (2020-21 regular season).
Maple Leafs: 7-2-1, 34 goals for (2020-21 regular season).
Betting trend to know
The Favorite is 26-12 in the last 38 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.
Toronto 3-way ML (-110)
Another season brings high expectations for the Toronto Maple Leafs as they open the 2021-22 season at home versus the Carey Price-less Canadiens on Wednesday night. Montreal will be without its playoff MVP as the goalie has entered the league’s player assistance program. In his place will be Jake Allen, who posted a 2.68 GAA and a .907 save percentage last year in 27 starts, and finished with a 2-3 SU record with a 2.66 GAA in six games versus the Leafs.
Although preseason stats are pretty worthless, it’s worth noting that Allen allowed 10 goals in his last two preseason games and stopped just 51 of 61 shots faced. Allen is a veteran but Montreal backers would have probably liked him to be coming into the opener a little sharper.
The Canadiens aren’t the only team with injuries to their best players. Toronto will be missing the league’s highest goal scorer from a season ago, as Auston Matthews is still out thanks to August wrist surgery. Missing its top center has head coach Sheldon Keefe juggling his lines even more.
With some new faces in the lineup, the Toronto forward lines are lacking chemistry as John Tavares has moved up to the top line with Mitch Marner and newcomer Nick Ritchie, while Alex Kerfoot will center Willy Nylander and Michael Bunting. The bottom-six group consists of three new players: 3C David Kampf, 3RW Ondrej Kase, and 4LW Michael Amadio. The Buds went 5-1 SU in the preseason but only played one game with their starting lineup.
The Leafs are certainly coming into the season lacking in familiarity with the forward group and it could take them some time to get going. However, Toronto is solid in the backend, with their six defensemen all returning from last year’s team, and starting goalie Jack Campbell looking to build off his 17-3-2, 2.15 GAA, and .921 save percentage from last season. We'd expect a massive effort from the newcomers up front and feel comfortable with the players in place on the backend for Keefe's defensive system. Bunting and Ritchie were standouts in the preseason and could add new dimensions to the team's Top 2 scoring lines.
The Leafs are expected to finish near the top of the division and a 100-point season is the goal heading into Wednesday's opener. The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn has Toronto finishing with the most points in the Eastern Conference, ahead of Tampa Bay, and has the Canadiens at 62 percent to miss the playoffs and finish in the bottom-eight.
Toronto is the better team, even without Matthews. Facing a Montreal team without Price and defenseman Shea Weber is also a big advantage for the Blue and White. With the moneyline on the steep side at -165, we’re looking at the three-way ML and taking the home team and its 20,000 fans.
Over 6 (+104)
Getting to Overs early is something all hockey bettors should be doing. Game totals tend to increase after opening and trend upwards all the way to puck drop. This game opened at 5.5 -120 to the Over and has already hit 6 +104 to the Over. Overs are very public plays and getting to them early could be the difference between 5.5 and 6, like this game.
Using last year’s playoff numbers in the seven meetings between these two clubs is next to useless, as playoff and regular season hockey are two different beasts. Toronto and Montreal went 3-1 O/U in their first four meetings last season. They also combined for 15 goals in their two most recent preseason games, which featured plenty of Wednesday's starters.
Not having Matthews is big for the Over, considering he scored 41 goals in 52 games last season, but we can’t look past the two things that have us worried about the Under: no Carey Price and four new lines and responsibilities for the Leafs.
Having Tavares, Kerfoot, Kampf, and Jason Spezza down the middle isn’t an ideal defensive lineup, and facing a team with a legit scoring line with Nick Suziki, Cole Caufield, and Tyler Toffoli, as well as speed and upgrades on the other three lines, the Habs have a better forward group than last season. All Toronto forwards will be playing with new bodies on their lines and communication on the defensive end could struggle because of it.
Power plays are a very important part of hitting Overs, and with the league supposedly cracking down on cross-checking this season, both units should get plenty of chances. Early-season hockey can be a little sloppy which can lead to careless penalties. The Leafs are addressing their PP problems from a year ago and have implemented a new system after replacing last season’s PP coach Manny Malhotra with new assistant coach Spencer Carbery. They had the league’s best PP until a late-season skid slowed it down. The Canadiens will have a new look with Caufield starting the season with the big club. Weber’s shot will be missed but Jeff Petry is capable of quarterbacking the first unit.
These two teams met in the opener a season ago with the Leafs taking it in overtime, 5-4. We wouldn’t complain about another high-scoring opener and think Allen’s preseason struggles are legit concerns. Defensive responsibilities could also be a problem for the juggled Toronto forward lines while Rasmus Sandin on the blueline is better for the Over than the Under. We’re grabbing the Over 6 at plus money instead of the 5.5 -135.
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