Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid is serving the first of his three-game suspension tonight when the Oil host the NHL-leading Washington Capitals at Rogers Place on Tuesday, January 21.
McDavid’s offense will be missed with Washington allowing the fewest goals per game, and my Capitals vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks expect the two clubs to play to a low-scoring result tonight.
Oilers vs Capitals prediction
My Oilers pick
Under 6.0 (-120 at BET99)
My Oilers analysis
The Edmonton Oilers have turned a corner defensively during their active 23-7-2 run, and the Washington Capitals have allowed the fewest goals per game this season.
Edmonton has scored just 2.53 goals against in its past 32 contests, notably below the 3.21 goals per game allowed to start the year.
Goaltending has also been a factor for the Oil. Stuart Skinner has impressed with a .920 SV% and 2.25 GAA across his past 12 starts at Rogers Place.
Of course, Edmonton has also allowed the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and ranks sixth in penalty-kill percentage during the 32-game stretch.
Washington also has looming statistical correction ahead of its unsustainably high 11.1 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5. It’s the driving force behind the Caps leading the league in PDO (103.2) at 5-on-5, and I’m expecting the gap between Washington’s 58.5 goals for percentage and 51.3 expected goals percentage to begin closing over the coming months.
Edmonton superstar Connor McDavid is serving the first of his three-game ban, so I expect Edmonton and Washington to continue playing to the Under tonight.
The Oilers have gone Under the number in six of their past 10, and the Caps have hit the Under in six straight.
Oilers vs Capitals same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6.0
Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 shots
Jakob Chychrun Over 2.5 shots
I’m anticipating even more minutes for Oilers center Leon Draisaitl tonight with McDavid out of action. Draisaitl already averaged 21:30 (3:17 with the man advantage), and he sports a high-end 59.3 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.
Plus, Draisaitl has recorded three or more shots in 14 of his past 19 games to improve to 29 of 46 for the year. He also ranks in the 97th percentile of forwards in shots per game and 96th percentile of offensive zone time at even strength.
Turning to Washington defenseman Jakob Chychrun, he’s emerged as the top offensive blueliner. He leads the club in offensive zone start percentage (64.8%) at 5-on-5 and joined the No. 1 power-play unit consistently.
The first-year Cap has also recorded three or more shots in nine of his past 12 games since the holiday break, and his 8.79 shots and 19.21 attempts per 60 minutes during the stretch are well above his respective 6.05 and 17.36 marks to start the campaign.
Finally, the two Overs in the shots on goal market are a nice multiplier to the Under game total, so we’re landing a solid price for this same-game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oilers vs Capitals odds
Oilers vs Capitals live odds
Oilers vs Capitals opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton -1.5 (+175) | Washington +1.5 (-210)
- Moneyline: Edmonton -145 | Washington +120
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of BET99
Oilers vs Capitals trend
The Edmonton Oilers have hit the game total Under in 56 of their last 111 games (+3.75 Units / 3% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Capitals.
How to watch Oilers vs Capitals
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-21-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNW |
Oilers vs Capitals latest injuries
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