The Montreal Canadiens will look to prolong the Buffalo Sabres’ 10-game losing streak, and send them to the basement of the Eastern Conference, with a win on Tuesday night.
My Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions see Juraj Slafkovsky and Montreal’s top line taking advantage of a struggling defense.
Let’s break things down further with my NHL picks for December 17.
Canadiens vs Sabres prediction
My Canadiens pick
Juraj Slafkovsky Over 0.5 assists (+180 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
Juraj Slafkovsky has been promoted back to the Montreal Canadiens top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, where he played so well in the second half of last season.
To say skating on the top unit makes a world of difference in Slafkovsky’s production would be an understatement.
Slafkovsky has produced seven points in 159 minutes of 5v5 play with Suzuki as his center this season. That equates to 2.63 points per 60 minutes, which is a high-end first line rate.
Slafkovsky recorded just three points over nearly an identical amount of time (150 minutes) with Kirby Dach as his pivot. That’s an average of 1.20 points per 60 minutes, less than half the rate of what he’s managed with Suzuki.
This isn’t just a matter of better percentages with Suzuki and Caufield, although that’d be understandable given those are the two best forwards on the team.
Slafkovsky has recorded more assists, shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals in his minutes on the top line. Put another way, he’s threatening more across the board.
He now finds himself in the perfect spot to get his offensive game kicked into gear against a Buffalo Sabres team that has unbelievably dropped 10 consecutive games.
They have defended very poorly along the way, ranking bottom-5 in high-danger chances allowed and tied for dead last in goals against.
Slafkovsky and Montreal’s top line should be able to rekindle their magic and do some damage in this one.
That damage will likely come by way of assist for Slafkovsky as 13 of his 15 points have come that route. Not only that, but Caufield leads the team in goals and the Sabres rank dead last in shots against centers over the past 10 games, suggesting Suzuki could be a real scoring threat as well.
Canadiens vs Sabres same-game parlay (SGP)
Juraj Slafkovsky Over 0.5 assists
Cole Caufield Over 0.5 points
Montreal Canadiens +2.5 goals
Cole Caufield is red-hot. He has picked up at least one point in 11 of his last 15 games, piling up 16 in total. Zooming in a little further, he has found the scoresheet in eight of his past 10 games.
The Sabres are a defensive disaster and have allowed at least three goals in nine straight. The betting market expects that trend to continue as the Canadiens’ team total of 2.5 is severely juiced to the Over, indicating three or more goals should be in the cards once again.
With Caufield at the top of his game, and seeing premium usage on the top line and power play, he is likely to get in on the fun.
The Sabres have dropped 10 straight and each of their last five wins came by two or less. They haven’t won a game by three goals in nearly six weeks.
I don’t see that changing on the road against a division rival that is over .500 on home soil.
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Canadiens vs Sabres odds
Canadiens vs Sabres live odds
Canadiens vs Sabres opening odds
- Puck line: Montreal +109 | Buffalo -122
- Moneyline: Montreal +1.5 (-242) | Buffalo -1.5 (-204)
- Over/Under: Over 6.0 (-112) | Under 6.0 (-102)
Odds courtesy of BET99
Canadiens vs Sabres trend
Juraj Slafkovsky recorded three assists against Buffalo in their lone meeting this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs. Canadiens. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Sabres.
How to watch Canadiens vs Sabres
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-17-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN2, RDS |
Canadiens vs Sabres latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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