An entertaining East Division series shifts to Beantown on Wednesday where the Boston Bruins will host the Washington Capitals for Game 3 of their first-round matchup.
The teams split the first two contests in Washington, with both games needing overtime to be decided, and oddsmakers have pegged the series-favored Bruins as big favorites for the first playoff game at TD Garden.
Check out our best free NHL betting picks and predictions for Capitals vs. Bruins on May 19.
Capitals vs Bruins game info
• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, May 19, 2021
• Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSN, NBCS-DC, NESN
Capitals vs Bruins odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis moneyline opened at Boston -148 Tuesday morning at FanDuel and is out to -180 at 4 p.m. today. But the wagering is not as lopsided as that move might indicate, with the Bruins taking 60 percent of bets and 61 percent of cash. The total opened at 5.5 (Under -118) and moved a few cents to Under -122, with ticket count and money both in the 2/1 range on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCapitals vs Bruins series odds
Capitals: +170
Bruins: -200
Capitals at Bruins betting preview
Injuries
Capitals: Lars Eller C (Questionable), Michael Kempny D (Questionable), Vitek Vanecek G (Questionable), Ilya Samsonov G (Questionable), Evgeny Kuznetsov C (Out).
Bruins: Jeremy Lauzon D (Out), Jakub Zboril D (Questionable), Ondrej Kase RW (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bruins are 8-1 in their last nine home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Bruins.
Moneyline pick
Washington deserves a lot of credit for being in a position to take a series lead on Wednesday. The club has been without its top two goalies for all but a chunk of one period, hasn't had Evgeny Kuznetsov, who picked things up after a slow start to the season that was hampered by an injury, and it lost Lars Eller during Monday's loss.
The two forwards are questionable for Game 3, as are goalies Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov, who, along with Kuznetsov, was placed under COVID protocols for the second time this season. That's forced Washington to lean on soon-to-be 40-year-old Craig Anderson in net and he has more than held his own, allowing one goal in Game 1 before stopping 44 shots in the Bruins' Game 2 victory. But, with all due respect to Anderson, the Capitals can't count on him to carry them to a first-round victory over Boston.
The other goalies are clearly better options, but Vanecek would be returning from an injury that knocked him out in the opening period of Game 1, while Samsonov hasn't played since the first of the month. Regardless of who is in net, one of those three will be tasked with stopping a Bruins team that has been lethal at home.
Boston is 8-1 at the Garden over its last nine games, with the lone defeat being a one-goal loss to the Rangers. The Bruins scored nearly a goal more per game at home this season compared to the road, and they got big games out of their studs in Monday's win after they were quiet in Game 1. Patrice Bergeron and Taylor Hall scored in regulation, and it was Brad Marchand who buried the overtime winner.
Washington would be a tempting underdog play with more roster certainty, but with a number of important pieces questionable going into this matchup, it wouldn't be wise to bet against a Boston team at home that has elite possession numbers and will also have the advantage in net with Tuukka Rask between the pipes.
PREDICTION: Boston (-165)
Over/Under pick
Boston is always a threat to go off with one of the most lethal lines in the game. Though they weren't elite as an overall unit this year, the Bruins ranked 10th in the NHL in average goals scored per home game at 3.50. While we can't scrub away the road contests, to add some context, only one team — the Colorado Avalanche — averaged that many goals per game throughout the season.
And only three teams, also including the Avalanche, prevented fewer goals from going in than Boston’s mark of 2.39.
They don't get hurt down a man, as the Bruins had the second-best penalty-killing unit in the regular season, and they will hurt you on the man advantage. The Bruins ranked 10th on the powerplay with a group featuring Marchand, Bergeron, and David Pastrnak that's as dangerous as it gets.
The Capitals were also a Top-10 team on the PP and PK and scored the fourth-most goals per game in the NHL. So it wouldn't be surprising to see any of the games in this series being tight (which both have been), low-scoring (which the first one was), or high-scoring, like the seven-goal Game 2 which started out with four pucks finding the back of the net in the opening period. But, for tonight, we see more of a repeat performance of Boston's Monday night victory.
No one should expect Anderson (3.35 goals-against average over the last four seasons) to put together a third strong outing in a row. If he continues to play, the Bruins are going to light him up in at least one of these games. And even if he doesn’t get the nod, there’s too much firepower to ignore here — especially with the teams combining for 11 powerplay chances through two games.
Game 3 should be testy and lead to more whistles, which will create great opportunities for these offenses to drive up the score with an extra attacker. Seventy percent of their 10 head-to-head games this year, including the playoffs, have eclipsed this total and we're betting on another. Take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (+105)
Capitals vs Bruins betting card
- Boston (-165)
- Over 5.5 (+105)
Picks made on 5/19/2021 at 9:09 a.m. ET
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