Capitals vs Islanders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Ises' Offensive Struggles Continue

Both teams may be struggling ahead of this Metropolitan Division matchup but between an edge on offense and success on the road of late, our NHL betting picks are leaning on Ovechkin & Co. — read more below.

Jonny Lazarus - Contributor at Covers.com
Jonny Lazarus • Contributor
Jan 16, 2023 • 11:48 ET • 4 min read
Alex Ovechkin Washington Capitals NHL
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The New York Islanders and Washington Capitals haven’t necessarily been at their best lately, but this is a very meaningful matchup as they are both in the Wild Card positions right now in the East.

The story about the Islanders lately is their struggling offense, having only scored seven goals in their last five games and to make matters worse, they've won just one of those five contests. 

The Capitals' offense hasn’t been much better, but I think they have been the more consistent team this season. 

With this being the first meeting this season, expect a bit of a feeling-out period. Either way, my NHL picks and predictions like the Capitals as an underdog in this spot. 

Capitals vs Islanders best odds

Capitals vs Islanders picks and predictions

The New York Islanders have been struggling offensively for the majority of the season. They enter this contest as the 23rd-ranked scoring offense, scoring 3.02 goals per game, performing up to par with their 3.03 xGF/60. The Isle's key to success has come from their defense and goaltending, headlined by netminder Ilya Sorokin

Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson have been leading the way for the Islanders, but Barzal has been held pointless in the last three games which has a lot to do with the Isle's offensive struggles.

Nelson hasn’t been at his best lately either, with just one point in his last five games, and the Isles are going to have to find some secondary scoring with these two not producing.

Another area of concern is their power play; the Islanders have only converted once in their last five games, going 1-for-12 and finishing at an 18% this season overall. 

The Washington Capitals haven’t necessarily been that much better when it comes to offensive production, but they have been excellent on the road as of late, going 7-1 in their last eight games as the away team.

Darcy Kuemper can hold his own against Ilya Sorokin and I think the Capitals can pull off the road win against the struggling Isles. 

My best bet: Capitals moneyline (-105 at BetMGM)

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Capitals vs Islanders moneyline analysis

The Capitals and Islanders have had very similar seasons, which is why they are only three points apart in the standings, but what it comes down to for me is trusting the Capitals to score over having that trust in the Islanders to produce. 

The Caps enter this game scoring 3.20 goals per game, giving them the offensive edge over the Islanders. The Caps have also had a ton of success against the Islanders in recent years, going 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the two teams. 

Darcy Kuemper has had a solid year in goal in his first season in the nation’s capital. He enters this contest with a .918 SV% and a 2.54 GAA to go with his +7.0 goals saved above expected. 

The Islanders' offensive struggles are a real concern and I think Kuemper can hold his own, helping the Caps get a win.

Capitals vs Islanders Over/Under analysis

Both teams aren’t necessarily scoring goals at a consistent rate, but the total being at 5.5 seems a bit too low for this matchup. Darcy Kuemper and Ilya Sorokin have been great, but they haven’t been unbeatable. 

The Capitals are skating to a 3.08 xGF/60 and the Islanders are very similar, with a 3.03 xGF/60. Both offenses have the ability to score goals despite being a funk right now. That could change in a game like this. 

I don’t necessarily love either side of the Over/Under for this matchup, but I really just think that 5.5 is too low. 

Capitals vs Islanders betting trend to know

The Capitals are 7-1 in their last eight road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs Islanders.

Capitals vs Islanders game info

Location: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
Date: Monday, January 16, 2023
Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS-Washington, MSGSN

Capitals vs Islanders key injuries

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Jonny Lazarus - Covers
Contributor

Jonny Lazarus has loved hockey for as long as he can remember. After his Division I playing career at UMass-Amherst and Mercyhurst University came to an end in 2020, he transitioned from being a player to working in the media. He might be young in his career, but he has made appearances in numerous places like the NHL, Bleacher Report, as well as The Action Network, and this season he will be doing color commentary for a selection of UMass-Amherst hockey games.

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