The Toronto Maple Leafs’ easy schedule continues Thursday night as the Arizona Coyotes come to town. But just because the Leafs are -380 favorites doesn’t mean two points is a guarantee as they have consistently played down to their opponent.
Can the Buds avenge a 2-1 loss in Arizona tonight despite their struggling goaltending? Can Arizona keep up its torrid scoring pace after potting 17 goals over its last two games and cover the NHL betting spread? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Coyotes vs. Maple Leafs.
Coyotes vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Leafs opened as -400 favorites but the market has moved towards the Coyotes and now sits at -380 with a total of 6.5 that leans to the Over. These two teams met in the desert back in January with the visiting side closing as -290 favorites with a total of 6.0 but Toronto was on the backend of a traveling back-to-back.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Coyotes vs Maple Leafs predictions
Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Coyotes vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet Ontario
Coyotes vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Coyotes: Liam O’Brien F (Out), Antoine Roussel F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Coyotes vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2016-17
Coyotes: 5-4 SU, 23 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 4-5 SU, 23 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last nine games when their opponent scores five goals or more in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Coyotes vs. Maple Leafs.
Coyotes vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Puck line analysis
Betting on the Leafs recently has been an absolute roller coaster. Poor goaltending and a soft blue line have kept their opponents in nearly every game even when they're heavy favorites. Since January 11, they have been a favorite of -250 or more eight times and have won just half of those games.
Their recent performances versus the Kraken (+250), Blue Jackets (+190), Canucks (+185), Sabres (+340) Red Wings (+180), and Canadiens (+330) doesn’t give us a ton of faith in Sheldon Keefe’s squad to cover a heavy puck line. The scary thing is, all of those games came in the Leafs’ last 10, and all six teams scored at least four goals.
The Buds are dealing with some serious issues in net that have been compounded by injuries on the blue line. Toronto has the worst save percentage in hockey over the last 60 days and a horrendous 3.72 GAA.
Jack Campbell picked up an ugly win last game versus the Kraken, giving up four goals to one of the league’s worst offenses. He’s allowed four or more goals in five straight games, and Petr Mrazek has been no better sporting a 3.58 GAA over his last eight starts.
The Leafs continue to be bailed out by an offense that has been one of the best in the league all season and is scoring 4.19 goals per game since Christmas.
Auston Matthews leads the league in goals, is coming off a hat trick over the Kraken, and has the most points in hockey since Jan. 1 with 42 in 27 games.
The top line has been leaned on more than a light pole outside of a dive bar and although watching them light it up nightly is entertaining, the lack of secondary scoring is concerning.
Arizona couldn’t come into this game any hotter offensively, having scored 17 goals over its last two games and held Toronto to a single goal back in January. It is 4-1 straight up over its last five games with wins against the Golden Knights, Avalanche, Senators and Red Wings.
This is a dangerous Arizona team as it has nothing to play for but comes into this game on a heater with a lot of confidence. Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen the Leafs lose to teams in worse form.
Karel Vejmelka stopped 45 of 46 shots in the previous meeting in a 2-1 Yotes win and has won back-to-back starts allowing just three goals over those two games. He isn't confirmed yet but should get the call after beating the Red Wings and Avalanche in consecutive starts.
We don’t need the Coyotes to dominate this game with how big of a favorite Toronto is, but the Leafs have constantly dropped the ball against lesser opponents. The +1.5 is paying +135 but Arizona +2.5 is still a decent -150 which is a great price and helps us avoid a loss by an empty-netter.
Prediction: Coyotes +2.5 (-150)
Over/Under analysis
With seemingly two-way scoring in every Toronto game of late, the Over has been cashing at a high frequency as the Buds are 15-4 to the Over across their last 19 games. They can’t stop a beach ball and their top-line have been the best unit in hockey in 2022. But are we hitting a high point in the market?
This total opened at 6.5 paying -130 to the Over but is starting to get some action back on the Under as the price has moved five points. Arizona has also been profitable to the Over in its last 10 games and the offense has hit the total by itself in back-to-back games.
For us, if the total hits 7.0, we have no interest in the Over but at 6.5 with a reasonable -125 price, we aren’t overthinking it.
The Leafs have allowed four of the league’s lowest-scoring teams to score at least four goals in the last 17 days. Although Arizona has been scoring with ease of late, this is still a Bottom-3 offense but the play on Toronto's blue line and net give us very little confidence it can keep the Yotes off the scoreboard.
Nick Schmaltz has 11(!) points over his last two games while Clayton Keller has 54 points in 56 games and has been difficult to keep off the scoresheet lately. This team might be top-heavy when it comes to offensive production, but the Buds are struggling to shut down top lines lately.
The Coyotes held Toronto to a single goal in the last meeting but gave up 46 shots on net with the boys in blue having played in Vegas the night before. Vejmelka has been playing well but the Leafs have scored 31 goals over their last six games and Matthews is starting to run away with the Rocket and has become the favorite to win the Hart.
Toronto’s power play scored a trio of goals versus the Kraken on Tuesday and will face an Arizona penalty kill that has given up three goals over its last six attempts. The Coyotes take the second-most penalties in the league and own the 31st-worst PK which should have the Leafs' power play licking its chops.
The Buds haven’t shown us much in terms of correcting their problems on the backend and with Rasmus Sandin questionable again, it could be another beatable blue line. Let the Overs keep rolling as they are hitting at 64% as schedules are getting busy and teams haven’t played a full 82-game season in what seems like a decade.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-125)
Best bet
The Leafs have no problems jumping out to 3-0 or 3-1 scores of late but they couldn't hold onto a lead if it was taped to their gloves. We’ve seen too many Bottom-10 offenses dominate them for long stretches of time and with the play in net and a smaller defensive group, getting back into games has proven rather easy for Toronto's opponents.
It has allowed their opponents to score three or more goals in nine of their last 10 games and now welcome an Arizona team hotter than the desert sun. Getting the Yotes at plus money on the 2.5 team total is just icing on the cake.
Pick: Coyotes TT Over 2.5 (+110)
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