The Toronto Maple Leafs are back in the comforts of Scotiabank Arena Wednesday night to face the Anaheim Ducks after a six-game road trip that left us with plenty of questions about this Toronto team.
Can Jack Campbell find his form in net for the Buds? Can the Ducks make it three straight wins after knocking off the Lightning and Bruins? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Ducks vs. Maple Leafs.
Ducks vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Toronto opened up as heavy -280 ML favorites and that price has moved to -290 as of Wednesday morning with a total of 6. The Leafs closed at -285 on the ML vs. the Oilers in their last home game and at -180 in an earlier meeting in Anaheim (total of 5.5).
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Ducks vs Maple Leafs predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-115)
- Prediction: Under 6 (-110)
- Best bet: Mikheyev anytime goal (+350)
Predictions made on 1/26/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Ducks vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, January 26, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SNO, BSW
Ducks vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Ducks: Simon Benoit D (Questionable), Sonny Milano F (Questionable), Josh Manson D (Out), Anthony Stolarz G (Out), Adam Henrique F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Out), Justin Holl D (Probable), Ondrej Kase F (Probable), Nick Ritchie F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Ducks vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2017)
Ducks: 2-6 SU, 19 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 6-2 SU, 31 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 5-1 SU in their last six games as a home favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Ducks vs. Maple Leafs.
Ducks vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
The Leafs salvaged a miserable six-game road trip with a defensive 3-1 win versus the Islanders on Saturday. Toronto managed three wins on the trip, but the team’s play could have easily had them escape with just two points. The injuries to their blue line were a big issue but it looks like they’ll get some help tonight with the additions of Justin Holl and Ondrej Kase.
The Leafs were playing small and inexperienced on defense with the absences of Holl and Jake Muzzin, but getting Holl back allows Sheldon Keefe’s team to start a more familiar defense.
Kase will draw in and jump onto the top line with Auston Matthews (five goals and seven points in his last six games) and Michael Bunting as Keefe has mixed all his lines up. Mitch Marner jumps on the second line and William Nylander will start with the third line. It might be a hit to some of these core-four players’ egos, but this is a very balanced top nine with each line having great playmakers and defensive-minded skaters. With the Ducks still dealing with injuries and COVID, this spread-em-out approach could work well against a thin Anaheim team.
#Leafs lines at practice Jan. 25/22
— David Alter (@dalter) January 25, 2022
Bunting-Matthews-Kase
Mikheyev-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-Kampf-Nylander
Engvall-Spezza-Simmonds
Extra: Ritchie, Clifford
Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-Holl
Dermott-Liljegren
Biega
Campbell
Mrázek
Scott
D’Agostini (practice goalie)
The Ducks, however, are coming off two massive wins against Tampa at home (+230) and at Boston (+215). Considering the wins were without Sonny Milano, Anthony Stolarz and Josh Manson, this Anaheim team is certainly playing above expectations. The Ducks also have to head to Montreal following tonight’s match as they play the Canadiens Thursday night.
The chances of the Ducks ripping off three straight wins versus the Lightning, Bruins and Leafs are pretty low. Toronto held this offense in check in the previous meeting back in late November and then poured on the goals halfway through the game and finished with a 5-1 victory. That win was also on the third and final game of the California road trip where teams have been known to lay duds.
The Ducks have scored five goals in each of their last two games but head into Toronto, where Jack Campbell and the Leafs allow a league-low 2.26 goals per game. The Leafs’ +1.11 goal differential per game at home is only worse than the Hurricanes, Panthers and Avalanche.
Despite some recent struggles, getting back home is likely a good thing for Campbell. The road trip wasn’t his greatest but he’ll return to a barn where he is 12-3-1 with a 1.74 GAA. No goalie with more than eight starts has a better GAA at home than Campbell.
The Ducks did outplay the Bruins but finished with just 2.61 expected goals in the 5-3 win. Tuukka Rask was not at his best in the Monday game and finished with -2.39 goals saved above expected. This is an Anaheim offense that sits 27th in goals per game since December 1 at 2.52 and sits in the bottom half of the league in most 5-on-5 metrics including goal%, Fenwick and Corsi%, goal differential and xgoal differential. The Leafs played a solid game defensively in their 3-1 win versus the Islanders on Saturday and should carry over that play into tonight with the new lines.
The Leafs tagged tonight’s probable starter, John Gibson, for four goals on 30 shots in the last meeting. Gibson has struggled on the road this season and is 6-9 SU with a 3.04 GAA, which is one goal higher than his home GAA.
The ebbs and flows of the Leafs are tough to get a grasp on, as they can play near-perfect hockey on some nights followed by what we saw on the road trip. It feels like we are on the good side of the Toronto swing heading into tonight, as the Leafs quieted the media with their win Saturday and this team plays much better hockey at home.
Looking at price comparisons, the Leafs closed at -285 versus Edmonton in their last home game and at -345 vs. Ottawa at home before that. Toronto closed at -180 in Anaheim back in late November. This game closing above -300 is possible.
We like Campbell to get back to his best, for these new lines to be successful versus an Anaheim offense that lacks talent in their bottom-six and the addition of Holl to settle down this defense. It’s the Leafs on the puck line for us tonight and looking ahead the Leafs could easily rip off wins over their next four games.
Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs are one of the hardest teams to figure out from a total standpoint. The road trip was a perfect example of this, as the Overs against the Knights, Avalanche, Blues and Rangers were no-sweat winners while the Unders versus the Islanders and Coyotes were snoozefests.
Campbell looks like a great goalie to fade with the Over here, but his splits at home have been too good to look past. Toronto is 8-10-1 O/U at home this year and the goalie is 3-6-1 O/U in his last 10 home starts. He held this Anaheim team to just one goal on 40 shots in the last meeting.
Anaheim did a stellar job of shutting down the Avs' offense in Colorado's 2-0 win last week and we hope tonight's meeting plays out in a similar fashion. The Ducks have killed 10 of their 11 penalties versus the Bruins, Lightning and Avalanche which are all top power-play units while the Toronto power play has also cooled off of late and has just two goals over its last five games.
Our best angle at this total is with the number. In the last meeting, the total closed at 5.5 and -120 to the Under. Zero goals were scored in the game’s first 25 minutes and four goals — including an empty-netter — were scored in the final frame. With the total sitting at 6, -110 aside, we’re leaning on the Under tonight.
Gibson has allowed one goal in three of his last four games, while Campbell’s home splits are the best in the league. The Leafs have also split up their big guns as Matthews, Nylander and Marner are all on separate lines. This would be a no-play for us at 5.5 but at 6, it’s an Under for us.
Prediction: Under 6 (-110)
Best bet
Ilya Mikheyev has a new role on the Leafs’ second line, which might be the most talented line on the team with John Tavares and Marner filling it out. Mikheyev missed a ton of the early part of the season but has six goals in his nine games since returning. He saw over 17 minutes of ice time last Saturday which was the second-highest amount he’s received this season.
He’s getting power play 2 time and is the shooter on that second unit. With Tavares and Marner on his line, and being priced at +350, which is the same price as Jason Spezza, we’re happy to take a chance on this mid-priced goal prop that should be closer to +275.
Pick: Ilya Mikheyev anytime goal (+350)
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