The Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild will meet for the second time in four days as the slumping Wild will look to avenge a 7-3 loss in Calgary tonight at the Xcel Energy Center. Despite the thorough defeat and rough recent form (1-5 SU last six), the Wild opened as -120 favorites versus a Calgary team that has won 11 of its last 12 games.
Can the Wild figure out their goaltending issues after allowing 4.71 goals per game over their last seven? Are the Flames now the second-best team in the West? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Flames vs. Wild.
Flames vs Wild odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Flames opened as +110 underdogs but the market has corrected itself and the visitors have swung to a pick ‘em or even the favorite at some books. The total opened at 6 and has since hit 6.5. The meeting last Saturday saw the Flames close as -155 favorites with a total of 6.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Flames vs Wild predictions
Predictions made on 3/01/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Flames vs Wild game info
• Location: Xcel Energy Center, Saint Paul, MN
• Date: Tuesday, March 1, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North, Sportsnet West
Flames vs Wild betting preview
Key injuries
Flames: None.
Wild: Jordan Greenway F (Questionable), Matt Dumba D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Flames vs Wild head-to-head record since 2017-18
Flames: 6-4 SU, 26 goals for.
Wild: 4-6 SU, 24 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Flames are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Wild.
Flames vs Wild picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
Outside of an uncharacteristic 7-1 loss to the Canucks, the Flames have been nearly perfect of late and have picked up 11 victories over their last 12 games. Over this dominating stretch of hockey from Darryl Sutter's group, the Flames are averaging a plus-2.18 goal differential per game, which includes the highest-scoring offense (4.45 goals per game) and the second-lowest goals against (2.27 per game) in hockey. This is a team playing better than anyone else in the league and the market has a ton of confidence in them, which today's ML underlines.
These teams met Saturday in Calgary with the Flames closing as -155 moneyline favorites. That price put tonight’s opening line 20 points short, but the market corrected quickly with Calgary moving to -115. The steam might have to do something with Calgary's dominant 7-3 win versus the Wild last Saturday.
Calgary closed as -155 favorites at home vs Minnesota in their 7-3 win Saturday and sit as -105 dogs.
— Josh Inglis (@Covers_josh) March 1, 2022
That game was a beatdown. Is tonight's line a little short? pic.twitter.com/xU0wAzar3M
The Flames got scoring from three of their top lines on Saturday while even the blue line chipped in a goal and five assists. They did that damage versus goalie Kaapo Kahkonen but will instead see Cam Talbot tonight in Saint Paul.
Talbot has dropped three straight games and has allowed at least four goals in all of those matches. There was a reason David Evason went with Kahkonen on Saturday. The Wild are struggling in net and not having Matt Dumba on the blue line isn’t helping either as the Wild’s bottom-three defenders of Dmitry Kulikov, Jon Merrill, and Jordie Benn are the team’s weakest spot and they were exposed in the previous meeting.
Although not confirmed, Jacob Markstrom is likely to start with the Canadiens on deck Thursday. The Swede is the No. 2 betting favorite for the Vezina and trails only Igor Shesterkin. Markstrom has eight wins over his last nine starts and although his record is better at home, his .924 road SV% is nearly identical to his .927 SV% home mark.
The Wild’s undisciplined ways have also snakebitten them of late. They took eight minor penalties in the last meeting and gave up two power-play goals. Minnesota has allowed nine PP goals over their last 10 games and has a PK that is killing penalties at 78.7% on the season which is a Bottom-15 mark.
This +110 opening Calgary line was too good to be true but this -115 price is on par with Saturday’s closing price of -155. Calgary is the better team and is a club that's hard to match up against on the road with three solid lines that can score and check. They have the second-best goalie in hockey and a great leader behind the bench.
Calgary showed it can get back to its winning ways after the loss to the Canucks that halted its 10-game winning streak. This is the best team in hockey since the beginning of February and its offense and defense are both playing at elite levels. Minnesota was favored simply because of home ice but that price is long gone. Give us the visitors as we could see Talbot continue to struggle in net versus an offense that is absolutely humming.
Prediction: Flames ML (-115)
Over/Under analysis
The last meeting saw 10 total goals and those tallies weren’t by accident. The game finished with 7.57 expected goals, per Money Puck. The Flames offense has been hard to bet against as the Under has hit just twice across their last 12 games. Sutter’s group finished February as the highest-scoring team at 4.45 goals per game, which includes a Top-10 power play. The addition of Tyler Toffoli has rounded this attack out as the former Montreal winger is adding some scoring touch to the team’s third line.
Calgary’s offense will go toe-to-toe with a Minnesota team that sits second in the league in goals per game at home with a 4.43 mark. The Wild are 6-1 to the Over in their last seven games and although they have the league’s second-highest shooting percentage, an 11.2% mark doesn’t scream regression.
The loss of Dumba has also correlated to some more wide-open games as the former first-round pick has missed the last seven contests and has seen his team's games average an incredible 8.43 total goals. Only the Red Wings are allowing more goals per game over that stretch.
Talbot is 16-9 to the Over across his last 17 starts and is riding his worst stretch of the season. He’s surrendered 13 goals over his last three starts, including a four-goal outing versus the Senators’ awful offense. The Flames have seen plenty of Talbot from his time in Edmonton as well as his own one-season stint with Calgary three seasons ago.
Markstrom has been incredible this season and leads the league in shutouts, but his team has been a little more generous on the road this season as the possible starter has a road GAA that is 0.62 goals higher than his home mark of 1.85 GAA while maintaining a similar save percentage.
The last meeting saw plenty of scoring chances, goals, and power plays and we doubt much is going to change, especially with the venue moving to Minnesota, where the Wild love to score. We still like this total at 6.5 and are starting to see the market agree with us as this Over has gone from 6 (-120) to 6.5 (-105).
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-105)
Best bet
The Flames have been the league’s best offense over the last 30 days and we don’t expect them to cool off against a struggling Talbot. Calgary finished with over 5.00 expected goals in the first game and had no issues creating offense at even strength or with the man advantage. Minnesota plays a loose style of hockey and with Dumba absent on the blue line, the backend is much weaker.
Sutter has the Flames playing with confidence and now they face a Minnesota team that hasn’t held its opponent to under three goals in seven straight games.
Pick: Flames TT Over 3.5 (+110)
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