The New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs meet Monday for the first of three regular-season meetings.
New York is looking to pull out of a little bit of a nosedive, as it has dropped three of the past five games, with just wins over lowly Columbus and Ottawa during the span. It is coming off a 5-2 drubbing in Dallas, as Semyon Varlamov was no match for the suddenly high-octane Stars attack.
Meanwhile, Toronto has picked up the pace with a 3-0-1 stretch across the past four outings, including a 5-2 paddling of the visiting Buffalo Sabres over the weekend. Matt Murray has stepped up his play, winning two of his past three contests since returning from injury.
I break down the matchup in our NHL picks and predictions for Islanders vs. Maple Leafs below.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs best odds
Islanders vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
The New York Islanders have dropped the past two games in Dallas and in Nashville, but it’s not for a lack of offense. New York lit the lamp four times in the Music City, and twice in Big D, but both Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin were tagged for a total of nine goals with one empty-netter.
New York has actually posted a healthy 14 total goals across the past four games, and it has notched exactly four goals in five of the previous seven outings.
Toronto has picked up the pace offensively lately, as well, scoring 12 times in the past three outings, including a 5-2 win over the Sabres on Saturday.
The Leafs have been just middle of the road overall on the season, going for 3.0 goals per game (GPG) to rank No. 18 in the NHL, although the power play has been among the better units at 27.1%, good for No. 7 in the league.
Diving a little deeper, Toronto limited Buffalo to just five high-danger chances on Saturday, the lowest HDCA since Nov. 5, when the Leafs limited Boston to just three. On the flip side, the Leafs generated nine high-danger scoring chances, cashing in once.
The Leafs are finally healthy in the crease, as Murray has started three straight games since returning from injury, and he is starting to look sharp. GM Kyle Dubas took a chance on the veteran netminder, and he whot hurt after just one start. He is finally looking like the guy Dubas hoped he would be, and the Leafs are playing their best hockey of the season.
Toss in the fact Toronto has won four straight in this series, while covering the puck line in each of those four meetings — including two shutouts — and it is a huge value at plus money laying the goal and a half.
My best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135 at SportsInteraction)
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Islanders vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs covered the puck line last time out against the Sabres, although they failed to do so in the previous home game Thursday in a 3-2 OT loss against the red-hot New Jersey Devils.
Still, while Toronto is 2-4 in the past six games as a favorite on the puck line, it is still worth playing due to the recent dominance in this series against the Islanders.
Plus, New York has been ice cold lately. The power play has stumbled with a 20.7% mark this season, good for just No. 18 in the NHL, although the penalty kill has been sharp at 83.9%, good for fourth. Sorokin and Varlamov have been a big part of that success, but the penalty killers also deserve their flowers.
New York is allowing just 2.8 goals per game, checking in at No. 11 in the NHL, although the team has coughed up 10 goals in the past two outings.
Again, Toronto has covered the puck line in four consecutive victories against New York, and that’s driving this train for a puck line play at plus money.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The Over has hit in three of the past four games for the Islanders, and five of the past seven games overall.
For the Leafs, however, the lean has been to the Under of late, going 3-2 in the past five games overall and 9-3 in the previous 12 skates on home ice. Even better, the Under is a dominant 8-1 in the past nine games against teams with a winning record.
That’s rather impressive considering the Leafs have had a mish-mash in the crease with Murray, Erik Kallgren, and Ilya Samsonov so far this season.
The Under is also trending in this series, going 3-0-1 in the past four meetings, with the Islanders producing just three total goals during the span, getting blanked in two of those meetings.
Toronto has outscored New York 11-3 in those meetings, but that’s an average of just 4.0 combined goals per contest. As such, if you like the Leafs to win, and would like a nice parlay opportunity, pair them with the Under.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Islanders are a dismal 1-8 in the past nine games against Atlantic Division foes and just 1-6 in their past seven visits to Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs Maple Leafs.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, November 21, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSG2, SN1 |
Islanders vs Maple Leafs key injuries
