The two best teams in Canada will meet in Ontario tonight as the Winnipeg Jets, fresh off a bad loss to the Canadiens, take on the Toronto Maple Leafs who are coming off a dramatic 5-4 overtime win vs. the Panthers.
Winnipeg has been one of the best teams since the restart but enters tonight as +150 road dogs. The loss to Montreal has also got head coach Rick Bowness mixing up his lines which could lend some value to the Jets’ player prop markets — especially with the recent play in net from Toronto.
Find out my best bet in our free NHL picks for Jets vs. Maple Leafs on Thursday, January 19.
Jets vs Maple Leafs best odds
Jets vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Following the Jets’ ugly 4-1 loss to Montreal on Tuesday, coach Rick Bowness put the lines in a blender at practice in Etobicoke yesterday. This move could give some value to bettors in the player prop market as prices are usually based on previous games and not adjusted after practices.
Mark Scheifele centers the second line that Nick Ehlers practiced with yesterday. Ehlers is an upgrade to Blake Wheeler and the second line will see better matchups as the Leafs will try to match up vs. the Kyle Connor line.
Rick Bowness brings out the blender for practice ahead of Thursday's tilt with the Leafs.
— Jeff Hamilton (@jeffkhamilton) January 18, 2023
Connor-Dubois-Wheeler
Barron-Scheifele-Ehlers
Perfetti-Lowry-Maenalanen
Kuhlman-Stenlund-Gagner
AJF the extra
Morrissey-DeMelo
Dillon-Pionk
Heinola-Schmidt
Capobianco-Stanley#wfp
Scheifele has 11 points in 11 games since the restart, including five on the power play, which is a good matchup vs. a Toronto penalty kill that ranks 23rd since the restart with a sub-75% kill rate.
The Winnipeg center (more touches) has a goal and three assists over his last three games vs. the Buds since the COVID season. The Buds are giving up 3.45 goals per game since the restart and with a second-line matchup and a PP1 role, Scheifele to record just a point at -110 is highly probable and a great price. It’s not often you get a PP1 center at his price.
My best bet: Mark Scheifele Over 0.5 points (-110)
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Jets vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Leafs opened at -170 but are starting to get a little longer across the board with many books at -165 as of this morning. This is the same price Toronto was at home vs. the Predators four games ago, and the Buds went into that game on three days' rest. Auston Matthews did miss that game, but there is a bigger gap between the Jets and Preds, even with the Matthews adjustment.
Winnipeg is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games and has the fourth-best point percentage since the restart with a Top-4 power play and penalty kill over that stretch. The Jets are also coming off a poor game vs. a bad opponent in the Habs on Tuesday and will certainly get up for tonight’s game vs. a team they don’t like at all.
Dating back to the 2021 season, where all Canadian teams played in a division together, the Leafs and Jets have met 10 times including the seven regular-season games in 2021. The recent meetings have seen plenty of physical stuff and penalties, which is favoring the visitors. The December 5 game in 2021 also didn’t help settle the cross-conference rivalry.
The Jets are healthy and bringing their elite top six into Toronto, which is important as the Leafs can’t match up easily with the last change. Winnipeg’s power play has scored in three straight games and has a 30% success rate since the restart. Its penalty kill is also hot and the Jets are just one of three teams with a 90% penalty kill rate since Christmas. They haven’t allowed a power-play goal in four straight and eight of their last 10. Toronto has relied heavily on its power play of late, as 30% of its goals over the last 10 games have come with the man advantage.
Toronto is coming off a 5-4 overtime win vs. the Panthers, which could have easily been its third straight loss. Toronto dominated the game but seems to be on another poor goaltending stretch as Matt Murray allowed four goals on eight shots while Ilya Samsonov stopped all 11 shots he faced. Despite the low-shot volume, Toronto again gave up plenty of quality and high-danger chances thanks to 10 defensive-zone giveaways by its defensemen.
The edge in net lies with the visitors, as well. Samsonov, unconfirmed but likely to start, has been inconsistent and has a .887 save percentage over the last 30 days. Connor Hellebuyck is currently among the favorites in Vezina Trophy odds at +350 and could be worth a look as he’ll get more starts down the stretch than Linus Ullmark in Boston.
These are two teams who aren't very different in terms of talent and the Jets come in with the better form. I have this game priced at Winnipeg +125 so the visitors are very appealing for me tonight.
Jets vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
Toronto totals have lived or died with the play of its goaltending and right now, it’s time to expect the Over but the books aren't giving us a discount tonight.
The Leafs are 6-4 to the Over across their last 10 but three of those Unders were vs. the Red Wings (x2) and the Predators, who rank in the Bottom 10 in goals. The other Under was a 5-1 loss to Seattle. Now, the Jets bring their Top-10 offense to town, but is this total of 6.5 a little high, even at -105?
The Jets are 1-8-1 O/U in their last 10 games and a league-best 13-29-3 O/U. Their goaltending has a lot to do with it but this team has missed key offensive players for large chunks of the season. On the road, this team is averaging over 6.00 total goals per game and Hellebuyck has a save percentage 30 points lower on the road (.908) vs. at home (.938, best in the league).
The big reason for my lack of commitment for the Over tonight is with special teams. With the Leafs’ power play making up 30% of their goals of late, if the Jets continue to be stout a man down, we might not see a power-play goal. That also creates fewer penalties, as referees tend to call more penalties when teams score with the man advantage to rubber-band the game and keep it fair.
Even with the Leafs hitting the Over of late, it has come with a low volume of shots against which also has me shy of this Over 6.5.
If this total were to hit 6, I’d absolutely hit the Over, but at 6.5, I’m off it entirely.
Jets vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Jets are 4-0 in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs Maple Leafs.
Jets vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, January 19, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Jets vs Maple Leafs key injuries
