The Colorado Avalanche kick off their Stanley Cup defense tonight by hosting the Seattle Kraken, who will be playing in their first postseason game in franchise history.
The Kraken have been a pleasant surprise this season and would make for a wonderful underdog story, considering their long-shot Stanley Cup odds, but they are massive underdogs for Game 1... and I'm inclined to agree with that sentiment.
However, the Avs' NHL odds for tonight are a little too juiced for my liking, so I've got another way to cash in on Colorado swamping Seattle.
I'll explain what that is below with my free NHL pick for the Kraken vs. Avalanche on April 18, 2023.
Kraken vs Avalanche Game 1 odds
Kraken vs Avalanche series odds
| Team | To win | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken | +235 | +2,800 | +1,300 | +750 | +750 |
| Avalanche | -300 | +550 | +330 | +380 | +400 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 18, 2023.
Kraken vs Avalanche Game 1 predictions
The Colorado Avalanche were tested plenty throughout the regular season: Third-leading scorer Nazem Kadri left in free agency, captain Gabriel Landeskog missed the entire season due to injury, while the likes of Cale Makar, Artturi Lehkonen, and Valeri Nichushkin all have missed large chunks of the year.
It led to a slow start and some ups and downs in the early going, but the Avalanche still finished second in the West with 109 points and are hitting their stride now, especially when it comes to scoring goals.
The Avs were a shocking 25th in goals per game (2.91) through the first half of the season (roughly), but from January 1 on, Colorado went up to 3.66 goals per game (fourth in the league), and has really gone into high gear heading into the postseason: Colorado has scored 4+ goals in nine of its final 11 regular-season contests, leading the league with 43 total goals and finishing second with 38.68 expected goals.
Even more impressive is that the final seven games of this heater were without the aforementioned Makar — the most dynamic offensive defenseman in hockey — as Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen went supernova, logging 14 and 13 points in those seven Makar-less games.
Well, guess what? Makar is back tonight... and the Avs are as healthy as they have been all season long.
As for the Seattle Kraken, their strength is in their forward depth, with three lines of very capable skaters, but none of their forward trios can match the quality of MacKinnon/Rantanen, and at best will be even with the second line of Lehkonen/Nichushkin/J.T. Compher.
The Kraken blueline will also struggle with Colorado's speed, while the team overall lacks major playoff experience outside of Jordan Eberle and Jaden Schwartz — and that could really come into play tonight as many of their players will need a game or two to settle in.
This should be Seattle's roughest game as the youngins get settled into what postseason hockey actually is, and with Colorado likely to be flying right out of the gate, I'm expecting the Avs to hang another crooked number and keep up this offensive heater.
My best bet: Colorado Avalanche Team Total Over 3.5 (-105 at Pinnacle)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Kraken vs Avalanche Game 1 moneyline analysis
Colorado opened this game around -180 and already moved to as short as -210 at some operators, which isn't surprising as the Avalanche are getting 74% of support per Covers Consensus, they're the defending Cup champs (against a team that didn't exist three years ago), and they are red hot — going 16-2-1 in their last 19 games — while outscoring opponents 77-47 in that span.
The Kraken limped into the playoffs by getting outscored 7-2 in consecutive losses to Vegas, but Seattle had little to play for in those games and had won five straight prior to that. However, all of those wins were against non-playoff teams and the Kraken are just 1-7 in their last eight against teams still active this year.
For what it's worth: Seattle went 2-0-1 head-to-head against Colorado this season.
Kraken vs Avalanche Game 1 Over/Under analysis
The total opened at a flat 6.0 for this game and generally remains there across the board, with the exception being FanDuel Sportsbook, which has moved to 6.5 (Under -130).
It's no surprise (considering Colorado's offensive onslaught) that the Over is 8-2-1 in its last 11 games, which is reinforced by some so-so goaltending — Alexandar Georgiev's 2.52 GAA and .912 SV% during that span look respectable, but his 0.29 goals saved above average show that he really just stops the pucks that he should... and doesn't bail the Avs out at all.
The Under is just 3-4 in Seattle's last seven, although a bunch of games against Arizona and one-sided efforts vs. Vegas skew that data.
Both teams also have above-average power plays, with Colorado sitting ninth in xGF on the power play (and Seattle eighth) since March 1, and if the Avs do come out running, the Kraken will be forced to open things up as well.
Kraken vs Avalanche betting trend to know
The Avalanche have scored 4+ goals in nine of their last 11 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Kraken vs Avalanche.
Kraken vs Avalanche Game 1 game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 18, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
