Lightning vs Avalanche Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Gather For Elite Goalie Clash

A rematch of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final gets underway on Monday evening as the Colorado Avalanche host the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Low-scoring games are typically in-store when these two clubs meet, with five or fewer total goals scored in four of the past five matchups. NHL odds have the total set between 6-6.5 goals.

Will we see another low-scoring affair, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks for Lightning vs. Avalanche on Monday, November 27.

Lightning vs Avalanche odds

Lightning vs Avalanche predictions

The Tampa Bay Lightning’s “poor” (by its mighty standards) start to the campaign was almost completely due to the absence of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. The good news for the Bolts, and bad news for the rest of the league, is that he is back and appears to be picking up right where he left off.

In his return against the very strong Carolina Hurricanes, Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 24 pucks for a .917 SV% en route to a Tampa Bay victory. Colorado’s offense is the biggest concern for this Under, but I expect one of the world’s best netminders to be up to the task.

Over his past six starts against the Colorado Avalanche, Vasilevskiy is 4-2 with a commanding .945 SV% and 1.92 GAA. There were five or fewer total goals scored in four of those six outings.

Meanwhile, the Lightning’s offense is due for regression as they rank fourth in the league in goals scored per game but 15th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. Part of this discrepancy, outside of unsustainable finishing, is a power-play unit scoring at a 34.7% clip.

That number is going to come back down to earth, which could come to fruition against a Colorado penalty kill that ranks fifth in the league. Additionally, goaltender Alexandar Georgiev enters this contest in good form.

Over his past six starts, Georgiev is 5-1 with a .903 SV% and 2.34 GAA. 

My best bet: Under 6 (+112 at FanDuel)

Lightning vs Avalanche same-game parlay

Under 6.5

Avalanche moneyline

+207 at FanDuel

Tampa’s best chance in this game is relying on Vasilevskiy to put together a masterpiece, which is certainly a possible avenue to victory. With that said, based on Georgiev’s recent form, I think he can stick with him.

If Georgiev holds up his side of things, then Colorado should take care of business considering it's the stronger team both offensively and defensively. On top of that, it will be playing in front of a home crowd at Ball Arena, a venue at which the Avs are 7-2 this season.

Colorado has also won seven of the past 12 meetings between these two teams.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lightning vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Avalanche opened as a -152 favorite and have since been bet down to their current price of -146. I suspect the market is respecting Vasilevskiy’s return, but I doubt this line gets any shorter than -140 considering they are on home ice and are a stronger two-way team.

That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and remains at that number. With that said, I would rather take a shot on the Under 6 at +112 instead of laying 12 cents of juice on the Under 6.5.

However, for the more risk-averse bettors, I think there is still value in taking the Under 6.5 if you wish to go that route.

Lightning vs Avalanche betting trend to know

There have been five or fewer total goals scored in four of the past five meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Avalanche.

Lightning vs Avalanche game info

Lightning vs Avalanche latest injuries

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