Lightning vs Blue Jackets Picks and Predictions: Tampa Striking Often

Despite a pair of postponed games, there are eight contests on the NHL betting board for Tuesday, including an Eastern Conference showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Columbus Blue Jackets.

Neither team has looked sharp lately but the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning still have one of the better records in the league and enter this contest as -233 road favorites. 

Here are our best free Lightning vs. Blue Jackets NHL picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 4, with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET. 

Lightning vs Blue Jackets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line opened with the Lightning installed as -178 road favorites with the Over/Under at 5.5. Early money came in on Tampa Bay and the Over, shifting the line to -233 and the total to 6. When these teams previously faced off last April, the Lightning won 4-3 in overtime as -310 home faves. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lightning vs Blue Jackets predictions

• Prediction: Lightning 3-way ML (-145)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-105)
• Best bet: Lightning TT Over 3.5 (-106)

Predictions made on 1/4/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lightning vs Blue Jackets game info

• Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH
• Date: Tuesday, January 4, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: BSOH, BSSUN

Lightning vs Blue Jackets betting preview

Injuries

Lightning: Zach Bogosian D (Out), Gemel Smith C (Out), Nikita Kucherov RW (Out).
Blue Jackets: Zach Werenski D (Questionable), Elvis Merzlikins G (Questionable), Daniil Tarasov G (Questionable), Gregory Hofmann LW (Questionable), Justin Danforth RW (Out), Gavin Bayreuther D (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Lightning vs Blue Jackets head-to-head record in last 10

Lightning: 7-3, 31 goals for. 
Blue Jackets: 3-7, 29 goals for. 

Betting trend to know

Blue Jackets are 16-39 in their last 55 games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Blue Jackets.

Lightning vs Blue Jackets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Blue Jackets are still hovering above .500 with a 15-14-1 record, but they've been in a downward spiral, and taking a two-week break in December doesn't seem to have helped. They have gone just 3-8-1 in their last 12 games and are coming off a 7-4 loss to Carolina on New Year's Day. 

The Lightning have lost three games in a row, but still boast an impressive 21-8-5 record and have the second-best odds to win the Stanley Cup. A big reason they've struggled lately has been their play in nets, with star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy sidelined with COVID-19 for a week. The Lightning surrendered 17 goals across three games in his absence, and when Vasilevskiy rejoined the team on Sunday, he showed plenty of rust in a 4-0 loss to the Rangers. 

That said, Vasilevskiy is one of the best goalies in the league and has proven that over the long haul. He's 17-5-3 with a 2.21 GAA and a save percentage of .925 this season, so expect him to find his footing against a Columbus lineup that is just 28th in the NHL in high-danger chances per 60 minutes at even strength.

The Bolts do a much better job of generating scoring opportunities, ranking third in the league in HDCF/60 at even strength. They should be able to overwhelm the Blue Jackets, who have surrendered a whopping 52 goals over their last 12 games.

We think the Lightning will win, but -233 is a pretty significant price to back a Bolts side that is 10-7 on the road this season. Grab them on the 60-minute line at -145 instead. 

Prediction: Lightning 3-way moneyline (-145)

Over/Under analysis

This game opened with an Over/Under of 5.5 before moving up to 6, which is the highest total we've seen between these teams in the last 10 meetings. However, given the poor play we've seen from both teams in nets recently, that seems like the safe play.  

The Jackets have allowed at least four goals in six of their last eight games, but also tallied at least four goals of their own in five of those contests. Over that recent eight-game span, they went 7-1 O/U, while the Over is 4-1 in Tampa Bay's previous five contests.

The Bolts were shut out in their previous game but this is a squad loaded with plenty of firepower. We're leaning towards the Over.

Prediction: Over 6 (-105)

Best bet

While we're leaning towards the Over with our analysis of the game total, we're not extremely confident with that wager because of how elite Vasilevskiy can be. The Russian has been a Vezina Trophy finalist in each of the last four seasons and the Under has cashed in 12 of his previous 18 starts. 

So, let's take Vasilevskiy out of the question and just focus on Tampa Bay's team total. The Lightning are very talented up front and are anchored by one of the best offensive blueliners in the game in Victor Hedman, who has 34 points in 34 games. 

The Blue Jackets haven't been as consistent defensively as we've grown accustomed to, and they rank 25th in the league in high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes. Columbus goalie Elvis Merzlikins had a strong start to the season but has been in a slump lately, posting a 4.56 GAA with a .871 SV% in his last nine games. 

Merzlikins is listed as questionable for tonight with a lower-body injury but it doesn't get any better behind him, with backup Joonas Korpisalo having a 3.79 GAA with a .891 SV% in nine games. Regardless of who gets the start between the pipes tonight, we expect the Bolts to find the back of the net. 

Pick: Lightning team total Over 3.5 (-106)

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