Both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames will be looking to make a push for the top spot in their respective conferences as the two elite clubs meet in Alberta tonight.
Both teams are coming off a loss and will be seeing each other for the second time in the past two months as Tampa won 4-1 at home back in early January.
Can the Flames be considered contenders if they can’t beat the best? Can the Bolts steal two points tonight in the third game of their cross-country six-game road trip? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Flames.
Lightning vs Flames odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Tampa opened as slight -120 favorites but the market has moved this line to a pick ‘em with a total of 6. These two teams met back on January 6 in Tampa Bay with the Lightning closing as -210 favorites with a total of 6 in the Bolts’ 4-1 win.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Lightning vs Flames predictions
Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lightning vs Flames game info
• Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet West
Lightning vs Flames betting preview
Key injuries
Lightning: No injuries to report.
Flames: Johnny Gaudreau F (Probable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Lightning vs Flames head-to-head record since 2015-16
Lightning: 7-3 SU, 38 goals for.
Flames: 3-7 SU, 30 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0-1 in the Flames’ last six vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Flames.
Lightning vs Flames picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Tampa Bay Lightning’s six-game road trip makes a stop in Calgary tonight as the two-time defending champions will face their biggest trip on their travels.
The Flames are 13-2-1 since the beginning of February which is the best point percentage in hockey. They have a plus-1.81 goal differential per game over that stretch and have picked up wins over the Avalanche, Wild (twice), Maple Leafs, and Stars.
However, they are 2-2 SU in their last four and needed overtime for one of those wins. Their 10-game winning streak finished nearly three weeks ago and the league’s best defensive team at home has allowed 14 goals in its last four home games.
Goaltender Jacob Markstrom has been getting a little more rest of late as Darryl Sutter has been rotating Dan Vladar in more recently. Markstrom has elite numbers across the season and will likely finish second in the Vezina race but the Swede is 3-2 SU in his last five starts with a 2.81 GAA.
He hasn’t fallen off a cliff, but he hasn’t been in the same form that saw him record five shutouts over the first month of the season. The Lightning did not see Markstrom in their 4-1 win back in January.
The Lightning roll into town coming off a stinker of a performance versus the Winnipeg Jets in a game that saw starting goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy, give up five goals. The Tampa netminder is a two-time Cup champion, a Conn Smythe winner and a Vezina winner. He will bounce back tonight in a game the Bolts were likely looking ahead to on their current six-game road trip.
The Flames have been hot since January, but the Bolts have been the better team since the start of 2022 with a 16-6-1 record and the fourth-best point% in hockey. The power play has six goals in as many games and John Cooper’s use of four solid lines gives them a slight advantage on the road where they don’t get the last change.
Four Tampa players are averaging a point per game over their last 10 and even the fourth line of Joseph-Colton-Raddysh is getting plenty of ice time and has scored in back-to-back games. The Flames’ strength offensively is their depth at forward but Tampa Bay can match them line for line.
We’re jumping on the side of the market movement and siding with the Bolts.
Prediction: Lightning ML (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Following their 10-game winning streak, the Flames were allowing a league-best 2.00 GAA but have allowed 15 goals at home over their most-recent five games.
The one knock on taking the Over with the Flames is betting against Markstrom but with him not at an elite level right now, we’re more inclined to hit the Over which has gone 5-2 O/U in the Flames’ last seven games.
There is nothing wrong with the Calgary offense that has been averaging 4.09 goals per game since acquiring Tyler Toffoli from the Canadiens 11 games ago. The power play is scoring at 30% over that stretch and Sutter should be able to keep his top line away from the Brayden Point with so many scoring options.
As good as Calgary has been offensively over the last 30 days, the Lightning have been even better. The Bolts are scoring 4.13 goals per game over the last 30 days and are seeing a total of 7.38 goals per game over that stretch. The PP is snapping it around at 30.4% and the penalty kill is operating at just 75% which is good news for the Calgary power play.
Neither Markstrom nor Vasilevskiy is at the top of their games right now and both teams have been involved in some shootouts of late. The last meeting closed with a total of 6 and saw zero special-team goals in the 4-1 Tampa Bay win.
The Lightning aren’t nearly as stingy on the road as at Amalie Arena. Totals of 6 have been few and far between of late as scoring is up around the league.
Prediction: Over 6 (-110)
Best bet
These two cross-conference teams do not have a lot of history playing each other and we think that should help from keeping this a 2-1, tightly-contested, playoff game. Both offenses are scoring over 4.00 goals per game over the last 30 days and each team can role three or four potent lines at 5-on-5.
Markstrom has been good of late, but not great while Vasilevskiy is a much better goalie at home with a 2.83 road GAA on the season.
Overs are hitting at 64% over the last seven days as teams are starting to hit some walls with a combination of a packed schedule and their first full season in three years. This is a great total at 6 and an even better price at -110.
Pick: Over 6 (-110)
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