Lightning vs Hurricanes Picks and Predictions: Scoring at a Premium as East Storms Clash

The trade deadline is in the rearview mirror and both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes will make their final pushes for the top spot in their respective Eastern Conference divisions when they meet tonight in Raleigh. The Canes come into this conference matchup riding a season-high four-game losing streak.

Can the Bolts pick up their third win in seven games and maintain the second spot in the Atlantic Division? Can the Hurricanes’ offense find its groove and snap this losing skid? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Hurricanes on Tuesday, March 22.

Lightning vs Hurricanes odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Lightning opened as +105 road dogs Monday afternoon and have since moved 10 points to -105 with a total of 5.5 that leans to the Over. These two teams met back in November with the Hurricanes winning, 2-1, as +110 road underdogs and a total of 5.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lightning vs Hurricanes predictions

• Prediction: Lightning ML (-105)
• Prediction: Under 5.5 (+100)
• Best bet: neither team to score 4 goals (+105)

Predictions made on 3/22/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lightning vs Hurricanes game info

• Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC
• Date: Tuesday, March 22, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports South

Lightning vs Hurricanes betting preview

Key injuries

Lightning: None.
Hurricanes: Jordan Martinook F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Lightning vs Hurricanes head-to-head record since 2021

Lightning: 6-4 SU, 25 goals for.
Hurricanes: 4-6 SU, 22 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Hurricanes.

Lightning vs Hurricanes picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Hurricanes’ stranglehold on the Metro Division is softening as Carolina is riding a season-high four-game losing streak heading into tonight’s big game versus the Bolts. Rod Brind’Amour’s team has failed to score more than three goals in 11 consecutive games and newcomer Max Domi is very questionable to make his Hurricanes’ debut tonight.

The recent losses could easily be attributed to a hard schedule as the home side has lost to the Penguins, Leafs, Capitals and Rangers — all playoff teams. Carolina hasn’t been a home dog often this season (just twice) but this line is starting to move awfully close to a pick ‘em, and with the Lightning pulling some strings at the deadline, this is another tough matchup for the Canes.

The Lightning are the team to beat in hockey, having won the Cup in back-to-back seasons, but that didn’t stop them from getting competitive yesterday in the trade market. They’ve loaded up on Bottom-6 forwards and have added Riley Nash, Nick Paul and Brandon Hagel. This was already one of the deepest defensive teams, now they have a dominating third line, yet again, and don’t have many weaknesses heading into their matchup with the struggling Hurricanes. 

The Lightning haven’t been rolling their competition of late, with just two wins over their last six games, but they have played just twice since March 16 and had two full days off before tonight’s match. Conversely, this will be Carolina’s fourth game in six nights, which included two games on the road. 

This game will feature Andrei Vasilevskiy and Freddie Andersen in net. Andersen is 1-3 SU in his last four, but it’s been more of an issue with the team’s offense as he has a 2.29 GAA over those four games. 

Vasilevskiy will get a good matchup against an ice-cold Carolina offense. The Canes are 0-for-15 across their last six games with the man advantage and have scored more than two goals in regulation (not including empty-net goals) just three times over their last 10 games.  Vasilevskiy was going through a rough patch, but the former Vezina and Conn Smythe winner has allowed two or fewer goals in three straight starts. This is not the goalie the Canes want to see to snap this scoring funk. 

The Canes are getting a little heat on their heels from the New York Rangers, who are moving on up the Eastern Conference standings, and although they will snap out of this losing skid, the Bolts aren’t the best matchup for them. Tampa is just as comfortable playing in 2-1 games as the Canes and the visitors have the offensive advantage and the power play advantage — which might be just enough to grab a win here as the line moves closer to a pick ‘em.

Prediction: Lightning ML (-105)

Over/Under analysis

You won’t find many bettors who have had success betting the Over on Carolina games. Over their last nine contests, the home side is 1-7-1 O/U, while only four other teams have hit more Unders on the season than Carolina. This unit is scoring just 2.25 goals per game (31st) and allowing 2.17 goals per game (1st) over the last 30 days. So you’re not just getting a cold offense, you’re also getting the stingiest team in all of hockey.

At home, the Canes average just 5.38 total goals per game, which is the lowest home mark in hockey. Carolina is 2-10 O/U at home across their last 12 home games, dating back to January.  PNC Arena is just not a place where we see many goals, and with both teams struggling to pick up wins, this could be a hard-fought game between two of the East’s best.

Tampa hasn’t been doing a ton of 5-on-5 scoring of late, as the Lightning have been held to two or fewer goals in four of their last five and have been held to a single goal in three of those four. The power play has three goals over that stretch, meaning John Cooper’s club has just six even-strength goals over its last five. The Canes rank third in goal%, third in Corsi% and have allowed the second-fewest 5-on-5 goals in hockey. Tampa isn’t skating into this tough barn and running things up tonight.

The Canes also have the league’s best penalty kill, allow the second-fewest shots per game, and haven’t been shorthanded more than three times in eight straight games. Offense will be at a premium tonight and we don’t think the scorekeeper is going to need to sharpen their pencil. Hence the total of 5.5.

The previous meeting closed with a total of 5.5 and both offenses were in much better shape than they are heading into tonight. The Hurricanes’ power play is non-existent and they own the league’s best PK while the Bolts have been playing Under hockey of late and are 5-0 to the Under in five straight. This one will have some playoff vibes, which should keep the scoring down.

Prediction: Under 5.5 (+100)

Best bet

With a pair of struggling offenses and elite goaltending occupying both creases, we’re looking into some niche and derivative markets for our best bet.

Carolina hasn’t managed to score four goals in any of their last 11 games and has also been suppressing shots and goals at the league’s best rate over the last 30 days. This is the stingiest team in hockey on home ice while the Bolts have managed just nine goals over their last five games and have a better offense at home than on the road.

In saying this, we doubt either side hits the four-goal mark tonight. Bet365 is paying +105 for neither team to score four goals and the “race to goals” market is a widely available derivative market that can offer some value in a game we’re projecting to be low-scoring versus two struggling offenses. 

Pick: Neither team to score four goals (+105)

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