Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets Picks and Predictions: Keep Hammering the Over in Toronto's Games

The Toronto Maple Leafs are reeling after an embarrassing loss to the Canadiens on Monday. We expect them to rebound against the Blue Jackets tonight, but we're more confident that this game clears the Over in our NHL betting picks.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
Feb 21, 2022 • 13:56 ET • 4 min read
Toronto Maple Leafs NHL
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have dropped two straight games as heavy favorites and now have to travel to Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets after getting embarrassed in Montreal with last night’s 5-2 defeat. The home side will be no easy task for the Buds as the Jackets are 5-1 SU since the All-Star break.

Can the Leafs find some consistency in net with Jack Campbell? Could this total hit 7 with how both teams have been treating the Overs and the state of the Columbus goaltending? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets. 

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened at -200 but have moved significantly to -230 at most books. The total opened at 6.5 and is likely headed to 7 after a 10-point jump on the Over this morning. These two teams met back in December with the Leafs winning 5-4 at home as -260 favorites.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets predictions

Predictions made on 2/22/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets game info

Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH
Date: Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Ohio

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets betting preview

Key injuries

Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Questionable).
Blue Jackets: Elvis Merzlikins G (Questionable), Joonas Korpisalo G (Questionable), Alexandre Texier F (Out). 

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets head-to-head record since 2018-19

Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 28 goals for.
Blue Jackets: 5-5 SU, 27 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-0 in the Blue Jackets’ last seven games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets.

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Puck line analysis

Betting against the Leafs has been a profitable endeavor of late as the Blues (+180) and Canadiens (+325) have picked up consecutive wins versus the Maple Leafs, who are going through a tough stretch of hockey. Metrics weren’t even on the Leafs’ side in those losses but there are a few reasons to like the Leafs tonight despite playing on the backend of a traveling back-to-back. 

The Leafs are still 32-14-3 on the season and have the third-best goal differential in the East. They took care of the Blue Jackets fairly easily in the last game despite the 5-4 final while the Jackets have been playing some poor opponents of late, which may make their recent record a little misleading.

Columbus has come out of the All-Star break with a 5-1 SU record but four of those five wins have come against the Buffalo (twice), Montreal, and Chicago. Since January 1, the BJs are 2-5 SU versus the East’s best teams and have allowed 39 goals over those seven contests. Making things worse for the home side is its goaltending comes into tonight's matchup as a giant question mark.

Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo are both questionable for tonight and Jean-Francois Berube would be in line to start if neither can go. JFB made his first start since the 2017-18 season versus Buffalo on Sunday in a game the Jackets won 7-3. The Leafs offense hasn’t been their problem of late and the Buds shouldn’t struggle to get on the board facing a third-string goalie and a team that allows 3.65 goals per game at home (second-most in the league). Toronto scored five goals across two periods in the last meeting and chased Merzlikins. 

The Blue Jackets have a Top-15 offense but going toe-to-toe with the Leafs, who have one of the best offenses in hockey, is not likely the best path to victory for tonight. 

Jack Campbell has not been sharp of late but he shut down the Penguins two games ago and has allowed two or fewer goals in three of his last five starts. The Leafs would have the advantage in net even if the Jackets had Merzlikins or Korpisalo in the lineup.

Betting with the Leafs can be a rollercoaster as they’ve struggled with consistency this month, but Toronto is the better team and should come out stronger after a poor performance in Montreal last night. We might not put any money on this side but our lean is certainly on the Leafs with the best market likely being the two-way -1 at -128. 

Prediction: Maple Leafs -1 (-128)

Over/Under analysis

With the side being more of a lean than a play for us, the total is definitely getting some of our money. This total opened at 6.5 and is inching closer to 7. The Over moved from -115 to -125 over a 15-minute stretch this morning and if Berube starts for the BJs, this total will almost certainly hit 7.

Over their last 20 games, the Blue Jackets are seeing an average of 7.50 total goals per game. They’re the only team that is scoring and giving up at least 3.40 goals per game over that stretch. With the injuries in net, Toronto scoring fewer than four goals is sitting at a 42.2% probability with the books. 

During that same stretch, the Leafs are seeing the second-highest total goals per game at 7.31. The offense is scoring 4.00 goals per game since January 1 and the goalie struggles have helped the team be the most profitable Over team of late with a 13-5-1 O/U mark across its last 19 games. 

The Leafs have seen 16 total goals across their last two games and every single one of them came at even strength. The Leafs still have one of the best power plays in the league and could get things going tonight.

Outside of the goaltending situation, the Leafs also have some serious questions on the blue line. Jake Muzzin will be out and Rasmus Sandin is questionable due to salary cap issues. Muzzin had already missed some time with a head injury and the Leafs went 7-1 to the Over in his absence. With Muzzin out, this will be a small defensive group that has been exposed in previous games without Muzzin. 

Toronto should also be able to get a ton of pucks on net as the Blue Jackets have been allowing the second-most shots on net from the beginning of last month while the Leafs’ 35.6 shots on net per game is the fifth-best mark over that same stretch.

With two teams that have been scoring and conceding goals at a high rate, two-way scoring is highly probable and with both teams possibly hitting the three-goal mark, we absolutely love this Over 6.5. This total should close at 7. If Montreal vs. Toronto closed at 6.5 -115 to the Over, this should close at 7.

Prediction: Over 6.5 (-125)

Best bet

The Leafs are coming off a game where they allowed five goals versus the league’s worst offense and now head into Columbus with a wounded blue line and a goalie playing with little confidence. The Blue Jackets have scored seven goals in back-to-back games and it wouldn’t surprise us if they scored at least three tonight against a tired Leafs’ team.

On the other side, the Blue Jackets allow the second-most goals per game at 3.65 and could be forced to use their No. 3 goaltender against an offense that is scoring 4.20 goals per game since November 21.

We’d play this total at 7 up to even money and love it at 6.5. 

Pick: Over 6.5 (-125)

NHL parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets picks, you could win $22.04 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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Josh Inglis - Covers
Betting Analyst

Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2018, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site's live content lineup.

Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC.

Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds. His preferred sportsbook is bet365, which he favors for its extensive range of player prop markets and live betting options.

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