The Toronto Maple Leafs failed to eliminate the Montreal Canadiens in Game 5 on Thursday and now the series heads back to Montreal, as Toronto fans have begun to sweat.
On Thursday, the Leafs rallied from a 3-0 deficit to tie the game and force overtime, but a poor defensive play led to Nick Suzuki’s winner in the extra frame’s first minute.
Oddsmakers have Toronto as a hefty -200 NHL betting favorite with the total opening a 5.5.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens for Saturday, May 29 (7:30 p.m. ET).
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens game info
• Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC
• Date: Saturday, May 29, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, NBCSN
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Leafs -166/Canadiens +139, with the total at 5.5. Early action favored Toronto. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, 76 percent of bets are on the Maple Leafs with 91 percent of the money also riding on Toronto. About 70 percent of total wagers are on the Over for Game 6.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMaple Leafs vs Canadiens series odds
Maple Leafs: -910
Canadiens: +600
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens betting preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: John Tavares F (Out), Nick Foligno F (Questionable).
Canadiens: Jonathan Drouin F (Out), Jake Evans F (Questionable), Artturi Lehkonen F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2 in the Leafs’ last seven games as a road favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens.
Moneyline pick
The Leafs haven’t seen the second round of the playoffs in 17 years and now have to wait longer than they would have liked, after Thursday’s 4-3 OT loss. The Leafs trailed 3-0 in the second period before ripping off three straight goals to send it to OT.
The Leafs’ bottom-six played its worst game of the series, losing the xgoals and Corsi battle substantially. They had been playing well since Game 2 and we’d expect a better performance in Game 6, as Toronto’s depth has been its strength.
The Maple Leafs’ defense also played soft at moments on Thursday and goalie Jack Campbell, who had played exceptionally up to Game 5, gave up too many rebounds and allowed three medium-danger goals out of four total. Campbell looked a little shaky out of the gates but he’s still 20-4-3 this year. Campbell should bounce back and swallow up pucks to minimize second-chance opportunities like he has all series long.
We mentioned the Leafs’ strength in depth and we could see another example of it Saturday night. Young defenseman Rasmus Sandin has looked weak in defensive responsibilities and may get to watch Game 6 from the press box. If that happens, expect Travis Dermott to tag in. The 24-year old has only suited up for one game this series and played neutral-to-positive defense with expected goals and Corsi percentages at 50 percent or better.
The combination of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caulfield has been a slight ignition for a Montreal offense that was stuck in park. But while these two — plus Tyler Toffoli — look to get on the board, they need to worry about their defensive responsibilities. The line finished Game 5 with the team’s lowest on-ice expected goals differential.
The Leafs have potted seven goals against Carey Price over the last two games and despite the Canadiens’ goalie pulling off huge saves, the Leafs have shown they can score on Price. He has stopped just 56 of 62 shots since Game 4, good for a .903 save percentage, and he even allowed two low-danger goals Thursday.
The Habs went from +1,600 to +600 to win the series after Game 5 but we're expecting the Leafs to finish things off in Montreal, where Toronto is 2-0 SU and has outscored the Canadiens 6-1.
PREDICTION: Toronto 3-way ML (-115)
Over/Under pick
The Montreal offense woke up in Game 5 and potted a whopping four goals. The Habs had totaled just four goals in the series’ previous four games, so the explosion was a welcomed sign for Over hunters.
Montreal capitalized on a few uncharacteristic errors by the Leafs’ defense and turned them into points. That hasn’t been the theme through the series’ first four games, and we’d bet that Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe is addressing those unforced errors.
Game 5 was the first time we’ve seen each team score three goals in the same game, as the Under is 3-2 heading into Game 6. Toronto has the skill and depth to play catch up, as it showed Thursday, but expecting the fourth-seeded Habs to jump out to another three-goal lead is wishful thinking.
Thanks to the seven-goal Game 5, we’re getting the best price on the Under 5.5 (-116) since Game 1. Game 5 closed with a total of 5.5 (-130) and we think the total should continue to slide towards the Under for Saturday.
Montreal has scored three or more goals in back-to-back games just three times since April 1 and finished with a bottom-10 rank in goals per game at home (2.79) during the regular season. If Toronto can avoid some defensive lapses and Campbell gets back on track, the Leafs shouldn’t have to play catch up and can focus on protecting a lead.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-116)
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens betting card
- Toronto 3-way ML (-115)
- Under 5.5 (-116)
Picks made on 5/28/2021 at 3:35 p.m. ET
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