The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens will renew their rivalry tonight at the Bell Centre, but with the inexperience on the Montreal blueline, will the heavy underdogs be able to keep the Buds from hitting 40-plus shots on net?
Find out in my free NHL betting picks and predictions for Leafs vs. Canadiens.
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Maple Leafs vs Canadiens best odds
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens picks and predictions
The Canadiens were one of the worst defensive teams in hockey a season ago and now they enter the season opener with an AHL blue line.
Montreal will start four rookie defensemen tonight vs. one of the best offensive teams in hockey. The Leafs averaged 34.6 shots per game last season (seventh) and had the fourth most shot attempts. Now they’ll face a team that allowed the most shots a season ago — that will have at least one rookie defenseman on each of its three pairings with the third pairing consisting of a duo of green NHLers.
I actually think the Habs’ forward group is better than it gets credit for. But this defence, while it will be fascinating to track, is going to have a really tough time against the Atlantic Division’s offences. pic.twitter.com/yzzdemuGE4
— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) October 10, 2022
The Leafs could dominate possession and the top two lines will be getting a ton of pucks on net. The shot market is by far the best market to exploit tonight and has less variance than the point market.
William Nylander has looked great so far in the preseason and played some inspiring international hockey in the off-season. Some think he could be a 40-goal scorer this season and with the return of John Tavares and hard-working Denis Malgin on his line, he should be generating a ton of shooting opportunities for the second line as well as the power play.
Mitch Marner might have led the Leafs in assists last season, but the winger averaged 3.11 shots per game and had more shots vs. the Habs last year than any other team — 19 over four games. He’s increased his shooting production in back-to-back seasons and finished last season with 5.83 shot attempts per game.
These are the two best projecting plays when you consider the matchup and the heavy prices for their individual points markets. This could be the best spot all season for the Leafs' shot markets.
My best bets: William Nylander Over 2.5 shots (-138 at Fanduel)
Mitch Marner Over 2.5 shots (-140 at bet365)
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Maple Leafs vs Canadiens moneyline analysis
The Montreal Canadiens will be dressing four rookie defensemen, starting first-overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky, while also giving the captaincy to 23-year-old Nick Suzuki. Even head coach Martin St. Louis will be in his first full season behind the bench. This is a team lacking a ton of experience and the issues on the blue line are too much to overcome vs. an elite offensive team like the Leafs.
Montreal has always played Toronto well, even with a lack of talent, but its defense was never this inexperienced. Montreal will have a rookie defender on every pairing and even with the last change, will struggle to find good matchups.
The two veteran defensemen on the Habs, Chris Wideman, and David Savard, would likely be bottom-four skaters on any other team but will be playing big minutes Wednesday.
They’ll face a Toronto team that still has its core together headlined by the leading goalscorer of last season Auston Matthews. Toronto’s depth scoring could also be an issue for the home side with the third line having speed on the wings and will be able to create chances.
Toronto will also have its captain and second-line center, John Tavares, likely back in the lineup as he was questionable earlier in the week.
Leafs lines at practice Oct. 11/22
— David Alter (@dalter) October 11, 2022
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Nylander-Tavares-Malgin
Engvall-Kerfoot-Jarnkrok
AstonReese-Kampf-AubeKubel
Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Giordano-Sandin
Murray
Samsonov@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR
The Leafs lost goalie Jack Campbell in free agency but Matt Murray is a great replacement as the veteran netminder has looked good in the preseason with a save percentage above .950 in three games.
The Canadiens gave up the third-most shots per game last year at 34.4 per match and that number could be even worse with the personnel they have tonight. The Leafs have the advantage at 5-on-5, defense, goaltending, and special teams. It could be point night for the Buds.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 6.5 and has touched 7 at some places and it's likely warranted. If you’re playing the Over 6.5, you’re going to be paying some heavy juice and upwards of 35 points.
The Habs allowed the most goals last season and come into the 2022-23 season with a worse and less-experienced roster. They had a Bottom-6 penalty kill and with all the rookies on the blue line tonight, could be susceptible to multiple penalties and face arguably the best power play in Toronto.
Ultimately, for this game to hit seven goals, Montreal will have to score at least two. Their team total currently sits at -140 for the Over 2.5 so the books think three Montreal goals are more probable than fewer. If the Canadiens can score two, I think this hits the Over easily. If they can score three, alternative total Overs will be cashing.
I just can’t see the home side slowing down the Leafs here — and with some new goaltending in net for the Leafs and a motivated young Montreal team — perhaps the Habs can bury a pair or more, but I’d lean on their team total Under 2.5 as the Leafs’ blue line has never looked better.
Jake Allen will have to stand on his head for this Under to cash as I’d expect Toronto to fire 40 shots on net tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens betting trend to know
The Over is 22-4-2 in the Maple Leafs’ last 28 road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Canadiens.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens game info
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 12, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens key injuries
