The Toronto Maple Leafs put in a poor effort on Wednesday night in a 5-2 loss to Edmonton, but have very little time to dwell on it with the ninth-place Calgary Flames on deck tonight.
The Leafs sit as a pick ‘em ahead of their third game of a five-game road trip, and will turn to No. 3 goalie Joseph Woll. The Buds are 7-0 SU following a defeat since early January, and have lost consecutive games just twice since mid-November. This is a great spot for the Toronto captain to continue his leadership following a poor game.
Find out my best bets in our NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Flames on Thursday, March 2.
Maple Leafs vs Flames best odds
Maple Leafs vs Flames picks and predictions
Following an absolute dud of a performance last night against the Oilers, it will be Toronto captain John Tavares leading the way tonight, which is something that has been part of his M.O. in situations like this.
Following the Leafs’ last seven losses, Tavares has totaled five goals and nine assists for 14 total points. He’s recorded at least one point in all seven of those games, and amassed 31 shots on net. He does what good captains do following a bad team performance, and that's contribute.
Tonight’s -110 moneyline price on the Maple Leafs is also giving us some better prices on Tavares’ props.
Sports Interaction has his Over 2.5 shots on goal at decent -167, but that might be too steep for some. That’s understandable, but they also have the best price on the board for a Tavares assist at +155.
The captain has recorded an assist in seven of the team’s eight games following a loss, and now with William Nylander on his line, he has a better chance at picking up a helper. Considering some books have his goal prop at +155, getting his Over 0.5 assists at the same price is solid value.
Tavares is going to find the scoresheet tonight against the Flames, as he usually does following a bad loss. His assist market is returning the best value, and SIA has the best price.
My best bet: John Tavares Over 0.5 assists (+155 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Flames moneyline analysis
The Leafs were a no-show last night in Edmonton, and considering all the roster turnover, the time off, and the Bruce Springsteen bonding session in Seattle on Monday, last night might not have been the best night to target the Buds. They showed no life following the first frame after trailing 3-1, and coach Sheldon Keefe was anything but thrilled with the performance.
Keefe: We just didn't play with any purpose or intelligence
— David Alter (@dalter) March 2, 2023
The good news for Toronto is the team has been perfect following its last seven losses (7-0 SU), and tends to look like a different squad following poor performances.
Over the Leafs’ last seven losses dating back to early January, they’ve outscored their opponents 28-11. Toronto hasn’t lost back-to-back games in regulation since mid-December.
The worrisome thing with taking the Leafs tonight is twofold: one issue is Joseph Woll in net, and the other is the desperation of the Flames.
Looking at Woll, the No. 3 goalie will be making his third start of the season, and is coming off a 30-save performance vs. the Canadiens in a 5-1 win 12 days ago. Ilya Samsonov was not good last night, but the team also didn’t do much to help him. We should see a tighter all-around game from the Leafs, who will likely add the physical presence of Luke Schenn tonight to the blue line.
The Flames are coming off a 4-3 OT loss to the Bruins on Tuesday, but they dominated and outshot Boston 57-20. It was a needed effort for a Calgary team that’s trying to claw its way back into a playoff spot.
Despite the one-point effort, the Flames are 3-7 SU in their last 10, and 9-14 SU since Jan. 1. Goaltending has been a massive issue, as both Dan Vladar and Jacob Markstrom have GAAs above 3.00 and sub-.900 SV% since Jan. 1. Boston scored four goals on 20 shots Tuesday, and Vladar was pulled after 20 minutes. I’d assume Markstrom gets the start tonight after helping get a point on Tuesday, but this is still a goalie who just welcomed his first child this week, and is 2-7 SU with a .862 SV% over the last 45 days.
Toronto playing the second game of a back-to-back might be too heavily-priced in here. Last night was the Leafs’ first game since Sunday, and having less time to dwell on a dismal performance is always a good thing. Toronto is 5-2-1 on the second game of a back-to-back this season, with both of those losses coming as a massive favorite.
Calgary will struggle to put in another great effort, and Toronto will rebound tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Flames Over/Under analysis
The Flames are one of the best shot-suppressing teams in hockey, but thanks to some poor goaltending this season, they have been slightly profitable to the Over. Calgary is seeing an average of 6.60 total goals per game since Jan. 1. The Flames are also 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 games.
Tonight might not be a goaltending showdown with Woll vs. Vladar or Markstrom. This Over 6.5 could get across the line even with both teams putting in sub-30 shot efforts. The Calgary penalty kill has given up seven goals in its last seven games, which isn’t great news for a team that takes penalties at a Top-10 rate.
The Leafs could draw some more penalties tonight as well if they come out with a better effort. In their sluggish play last night, they still went 1-for-3 on the power play, gave up one power play goal, and took four minor penalties.
This Over won’t get as much money as last night’s game did, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Over 6.5 closed at -120 or -125. Both teams need a solid performance for different reasons, while the goaltending at both sides will help the Over even in a low-shot game.
Maple Leafs vs Flames betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss of three or more goals. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Flames.
Maple Leafs vs Flames game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Thursday, March 2, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN4, Sportsnet West |
Maple Leafs vs Flames key injuries
