Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights Picks and Predictions: Leafs Can Punish Weak Vegas D

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ six-game road trip continues Tuesday night as the Buds head to the Strip and take on the Vegas Golden Knights. Sheldon Keefe’s team will be looking to rebound after a collapse in Colorado on Saturday while the Knights are coming off a 2-1 loss to Chicago.

Can the Leafs use Saturday's loss as a motivator and not drop two straight games for just the second time since October? Is the quick line movement towards Toronto an indication of some bad news coming for the Knights? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights on January 11.

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Golden Knights opened at -120 on the moneyline, moved to a pick’em, and then quickly became +105 dogs. As of 11 am, there has been no news released as to what's driving this movement, but with the size of the swing, it could be related to the Knights' goaltending situation.. The total sits at 6.

These two teams met in Toronto on November 11 with the Leafs taking a 4-0 win as -210 ML favorites. Vegas was without Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, William Karlsson and Zach Whitecloud.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-125)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-105)
• Best bet: Pick Maple Leafs TT Over 3 (-120)

Predictions made on 1/11/2022 at 10:18 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights game info

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Tuesday, January 11, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, ATTSN-RM

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner F (Out), Pierre Engvall F (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Probable).
Golden Knights: Max Pacioretty F (Out), Alec Martinez D (Out), Jack Eichel F (Out), Nicolas Hague D (Out), Laurent Brossoit G (Questionable).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights head-to-head record

Maple Leafs: 5-2 SU, 24 goals for.
Golden Knights: 2-5 U, 18 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last eight vs. the Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights.

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Leafs chased Colorado starting goalie Darcy Kuemper after just eight shots and three goals on Saturday night but still managed to pick up just a single point thanks to the Avs erasing a 4-1 deficit and winning in overtime. Honestly, the Leafs were lucky to pick up a point, and if it weren’t for Jack Campbell, the Leafs might have lost in regulation. 

Despite the ugly loss, we're still high on this Leafs team heading into Tuesday night. The Avalanche are by far the best team in hockey and are significant betting favorites to win it all. Toronto had to put its forward lines in a blender thanks to the absences of Mitch Marner, Pierre Engvall and Ondrej Kase, and the game was the team’s first American road trip since November. We’re giving the Buds a pass here and like their situation Tuesday night.

Marner and Engvall are still in COVID protocol, but Kase is probable to return, which will help bring the Leafs’ forward lines back to familiarity. The second line of Ilya Mikheyev, John Tavares and William Nylander had a disaster of a game and finished with an xgoal% of 41 while the fourth line consisted of two taxi-squad players also finished with an xgoal% below 50. With Kase likely to draw back in, he’ll jump to the top line, Alex Kerfoot will go back to his familiar second-line role while the bottom-six has a ton of experience with Kyle Clifford being the only taxi-squad addition.

The Leafs didn’t have any problem producing offense against the Avs, and stopping Colorado, who is averaging 5.20 goals per, is a near-impossible task. The Knights’ weakness is the backend as Vegas is giving up 3.00 goals per game. If the Leafs can keep their offense rolling — 14 straight games with at least three goals — they have a great shot at two points after opening as the underdog.

The Knights will enter Tuesday’s matchup without Max Pacioretty and defenseman Alec Martinez which are just a key as Tornoto’s absences. Vegas has suffered from league-average goaltending this season as Robin Lehner owns a 2.92 GAA on the season. He’s allowed just three goals over his last two games but has seen just 41 shots in both those games combined and faced offenses in the Rangers and Blackhawks that rank outside the Top 15 in goals per game. The line movement from pick 'em to Toronto -125 indicates something serious with the Knights, which could possibly be a goalie change. With backup Laurent Brossoit questionable, Logan Thompson would be the team's next option. He's allowed three goals in his first NHL start last week. 

Defensively, the Knights are weak in their bottom three defensemen with Martinez and Nick Hague unavailable. The bottom pairing of Ben Hutton and Dylan Coghlan have a 49 percent xgoal% on the season in limited time together while the blueline has been a revolving door for the Knights this year. When healthy, this is one of the best units in hockey, but this team is not at 100 percent.

Vegas has been at home since December 31 and is just 2-3 SU on home ice over that stretch. They’re coming off a 2-1 loss versus Chicago as -240 ML favorites on Saturday and were shutout versus the Leafs 4-0 back in November in a game Vegas finished with just 1.8 expected goals. Vegas was missing some key pieces in that battle, but with the line moving in Toronto's favor and a total of 6 leaning to the Under, the books are expecting Vegas to run up the score.

Campbell is the biggest advantage in this game, while the Leafs’ special teams also have us leaning towards the visitors. Toronto has killed 12 straight penalties, including all four versus the Avs’ No. 8 PP on Saturday. The league’s fifth-best penalty kill has been overshadowed by Toronto's No. 1 power play that is scoring at over 30% and has potted in nine straight games.

We’re jumping on the side of the market movement and getting the Leafs on the ML at -110, which is likely the best price we’ll see until late March or early April. 

Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-125)

Over/Under analysis

Following a 5-4 overtime game Saturday and sitting with a total of 6 for tonight, we’re assuming the Over here will be a popular public bet. Vegas has allowed under 28 shots in seven of its last eight games but this is still a team that has the second-worst expected goals against in hockey and allows roughly 3.00 goals per game. They also sit second in expected goals for, which makes them an ideal Over team, as they rank in the Top 2 in both xgoals for and against. At 22-14-2 to the Over on the season, no other club has hit the over more than the Golden Knights. 

Toronto’s offense isn’t too far behind. It ranks third in xgoals at 5-on-5 and sits ninth in even-strength goals allowed. The visitors are averaging 4.00 goals per game over the last two months, which ranks just below the Avalanche for the top spot. This Toronto power play has also been unstoppable of late and is scoring at a 46% rate over its last 10 games — the best mark in hockey.

Toronto got zero offensive production from its second line last game and still managed to put up four goals, which is something it's done in six of its laste seven games. We like Keefe’s squad to continue its offensive roll, led by Auston Matthews, who has more goals than anyone in hockey over the last 60 days. Additionally, Marner’s absence hurts this team defensively as the Leafs have allowed 30 goals in the eight games he’s missed. The questions regarding the line movement would also favor the Over.

Let’s see some goals Tuesday night.

Prediction: Over 6 (-105)

Best bet

Both teams have Top-10 offenses, but it’s the Knights who struggle with giving up quality chances, which is reflective of their 31st-ranked xgoal%. The blueline has been inconsistent with all the moving pieces and goaltending has been league average. That won’t be good enough against this Toronto offense that's being led by arguably the hottest player in the NHL in Matthews. He's looked fine without Marner on his wing and netted two goals in the last meeting.

Of the Top 15 teams in point percentage, the Knights have the second-worst goals against and their 24th-ranked penalty kill will have its hands full with the league’s best power play. With the line moving significantly in Toronto’s favor, we’re hitting the Leafs’ team total Over 3 as our best bet. Jack Campbell can steal games as he showed us in the last meeting which is why we’re hitting the team total and not the full game Over. We still like both our side and total plays but a Toronto team total of 3 is hard to pass. This number would plummet if Lehner were unable to play.

Pick: Maple Leafs team total Over 3 (-120)

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