We’ve got four games on the NHL slate, including a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Islanders.
The NHL odds do favor Toronto in this spot, and I think it’ll be on the back of a motivated John Tavares, who is on milestone watch as he heads back to his old domain.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this Monday, December 11 matchup between the Leafs and Isles.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders odds
Maple Leafs vs Islanders predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs are heading out on the road for a New York minute as they head to UBS Arena for a date with the New York Islanders.
New York enters on a three-game winning streak, coming off an impressive 3-2 win in overtime against the Kings on Saturday night, handing LA its first road loss of the season.
For the Leafs, they’re coming off a dominant 4-0 win over the Nashville Predators, who were also riding a three-game winning streak. Toronto outshot the Preds 37-18 and we could see a similar shot disparity tonight against the Isles.
The Islanders give up an alarming number of shots to their opposition on a nightly basis. New York is allowing 35.8 shots per game, which ranks 31st in the NHL. With Toronto averaging 32 shots per game, this is a good spot to take advantage of some juicy shot props for a couple of Maple Leafs forwards.
Enter John Tavares.
Tavares’ shot prop total tonight is set at 3.5, and it’s a number he’s gone over in five of his last seven games since being re-united with premier set-up man Mitch Marner.
Also, consider the opponent. The Isles made Tavares the top pick in the 2009 draft, and he typically gets a jolt when he plays against his former team. He’s got two goals and four points over his last four games against the Islanders while averaging 4.75 shots per game.
Additionally, Tavares is now officially on milestone watch. The Leafs captain is just two points shy of 1,000 for his career. Wouldn’t it be poetic for him to get to the 1K mark against his former team? His teammates will be looking to set him up all night, and he’ll be motivated to be quick on the trigger to help us get to the 4+ shots we need and possibly the 1,000 points he’s yearning for.
My best bet: Tavares Over 3.5 shots on goal (-105 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Islanders same-game parlay
John Tavares anytime goal
Over 5.5
Maple Leafs team total Over 2.5
For leg one of my same-game parlay, I’ll take an anytime goal from Tavares. There’s a big carrot dangling in front of him tonight with the chance to hit the 1K milestone against the team he spent the first portion of his career with. I think he’ll be firing shots on goal at a high rate, and one will find twine. He’s scored in two of the last three meetings between the two teams.
Next up, let’s take the Over on an alternate total of 5.5 goals. The Over has combined to go 13-7 in the last 10 games for these teams. Both squads give up a lot of shots and rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals against. Both teams average more than three goals per game offensively and give up roughly three goals each as well.
For my final leg, I’ll take the Leafs to go Over 2.5 goals. The Islanders have allowed 3+ goals in five of their last six, as the team ranks in the Bottom 5 in most defensive metrics despite winning a lot of games lately. Meanwhile, Toronto ranks ninth in the NHL in expected goals over their last 10 games and has scored 3.08 goals per game over that stretch as well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Islanders moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs are favored slightly on the moneyline at -125 with New York coming in as +105 home underdogs. Toronto is generating shots and scoring chances at an elite rate. That bodes well for them against an Islanders team that is leaky defensively and relies on strong goaltending to keep them in games. As long as the Leafs protect Ilya Samsonov by spending most of the night on the offensive, they should come away victorious, as 72% of betters are predicting.
The books are expecting a lower-scoring affair, with the total for tonight’s game set at 6.0, with the Over giving -120 odds and the Under paying even money. However, these teams have seen the Over hit more times than not this season. Toronto is coming off a shutout win, but Samsonov’s .886 SV% and 3.21 GAA suggest that's a potential outlier. Additionally, the Isles allow an average of 3.15 goals against, so there’s a good chance we see 6+ goals tonight, which matches up with the 58% of bets coming in on the Over.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 6-18 against the spread. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Islanders.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders game info
| Location: | UBS Arena, Belmont Park, NY |
| Date: | Monday, December 11, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
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