The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Seattle on Valentine's Day searching not for love... but just to salvage a win from the end of a three-game Western road trip.
After dropping the first two legs of this road swing, the Leafs will try to secure a win, as massive NHL betting road favorites, in their first-ever meeting against the expansion Seattle Kraken.
Our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Kraken aren't exactly enthralled with the price on the Toronto — but read on to see where the best value lies for tonight's matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Kraken odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened at Toronto -203/Seattle +177 and has quickly grown to the Leafs generally in the -240 to -250 range, with the Kraken as high as +215. The total opened at 6.5, with some books still at that number (heavily shaded to the Under) and others moving down to a flat 6, with a slight lean to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Kraken predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+105)
- Prediction: Over 6 (-115)
- Best bet: Maple Leafs Over 3.5 goals in regulation (-115)
Predictions made on 2/14/2022 at 11:52 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Kraken game info
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
• Date: Monday, February 14, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet East, ROOT Sports Northwest
Maple Leafs vs Kraken betting preview
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: None.
Kraken: Marcus Johansson LW (Day-to-Day), Jaden Schwartz LW (Out), Brandon Tanev LW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in Toronto's last seven games as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Kraken.
Maple Leafs vs Kraken picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
The Leafs are coming into this game having lost two straight road contests, but the way they have been playing should give Toronto backers zero cause for concern.
Facing Calgary (on a six-game win streak and 8-1 stretch) and Vancouver (playing much better since its coaching change), the Leafs still outshot their opponents by an astonishing 101-50 margin in those two games, with a 65.5 Corsi For Percentage at 5-on-5, with 6.42 expected goals for/4.98 expected goals against (per Moneypuck) against the actual output of four goals for and eight goals against.
What does that tell us? Toronto was robbed by some exceptional opposing goaltenders while getting subpar goaltending itself.
Thankfully for the Leafs, exceptional goaltending likely won't be an issue tonight against Seattle starter Philipp Grubauer, who has posted a sub-.900 SV% every month this season and is dead last in the NHL with -24.5 goals saved above expected. Grubauer has stopped 41 of 44 shots in two February starts but those outings came against the Coyotes and Islanders — clubs not even remotely on the same offensive level as The Maple Leafs.
Seattle has actually been one of the better shot-generating teams in the league over the last month, sitting eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 CF% (per Natural Stat Trick), but you know who sits third? That's right, Toronto.
The Leafs also have a massive special-teams edge: they are second with a 33.3% power-play conversion rate over the last month, going against Seattle's 24th-ranked penalty kill (72.2%) during that span — while their penalty kill, which is fourth at 88.9% effectiveness, should have little problem against a Kraken man-advantage unit that is hitting at a paltry 7.3% rate (31st in the league) and is 2 for its last 37 attempts.
Simply put: Toronto is a significantly better team in all facets and is playing exceptional hockey right now. The only thing that could prevent the Leafs from blitzing an inferior opponent is Grubauer stealing a game — and we don't see that happening.
Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under analysis
We're expecting the Leafs to pile on some goals and comfortably move past the Kraken tonight... but we expect Seattle to pot a couple goals as well because, well, Toronto goalie Jack Campbell has been downright brutal lately.
Once a Vezina Trophy contender, Campbell has taken himself out of that race by falling off a cliff since December 1, posting a 3.28 GAA, .893 SV%, and an ugly -5.85 goals saved above average in 15 appearances. He's especially struggling to bail his team out against high-danger chances in this span, with a league-worst -8.38 high-danger goals saved above average, and he has coughed up at least three goals in seven of his last eight appearances — including five goals against four times.
The total has gone Over in 18 of Toronto's last 26 games overall — and in 10 of its last 14 road games — and the Buds tend to pile on the goals against inferior opponents, cashing the Over in four of their last five against teams with losing records.
Seattle has also seen the Over hit in five of its last six games as a home dog while cashing in 15 of its last 22 games at Climate Pledge Arena.
Prediction: Over 6 (-115)
Best bet
Speaking of not stopping high-danger chances: We mentioned that Campbell has the worst HDGSAA since December 1, well No. 2 on that list (at -8.01) is Grubauer.
That's not particularly comforting against a Leafs offense that sits sixth in the league in HDCF per 60 minutes this season — and second over the last month.
Toronto is going to keep coming in waves tonight against Seattle, especially licking its chops if it gets a few cracks on the power play. We're going to bank on the Leafs showing Grubauer and Seattle anything but love on Valentine's Day as they put up a crooked number tonight and go Over their team total — adding that they'll hit it in regulation to add a little better value on the price.
Pick: Maple Leafs Over 3.5 goals in regulation (-115)
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