The Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Toronto Maple Leafs to Amalie Arena for Game 4 of their first-round series as the visitors have a chance to win their third straight and take a commanding 3-1 lead.
The Lightning dominated Game 3 but the Maple Leafs finally came out on top thanks to a last-minute tying goal and a heroic effort from goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who’s outplayed Andrei Vasilevskiy so far in the series.
Can Tampa Bay solve Samsonov in Game 4 to knot it up at two games apiece? We’ll discuss in our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL betting picks below.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning series odds
| Team | To win | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | -360 | +210 | +260 | +340 |
| Lightning | +280 | N/A | +800 | +550 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 23.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 predictions
It’s been an interesting series so far as one team has dominated every game — the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs each scored seven in their Game 1 and Game 2 wins, respectively, while Tampa Bay outplayed Toronto in Game 3 but couldn’t solve Ilya Samsonov late in the game.
That left the door open for Ryan O’Reilly to score the game-tying goal with 60 seconds remaining in regulation before Morgan Rielly netted the overtime winner in the final minute of the first extra frame.
After losing Game 2 in a blowout, the Lightning looked desperate to grab another series lead in Game 3, so you can only imagine how hungry they’ll be tonight.
Game 3 marked rare back-to-back playoff defeats for Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has been nearly perfect in his postseason career following a loss. The Bolts' netminder has only lost three straight games once in the playoffs when the Lightning were swept by the Blue Jackets in 2019.
Vasilevskiy has not been his usual self this series, posting an .853 SV% and a 4.22 GAA. His best performance came in Tampa Bay’s only victory, and he was still just over .900 in that contest. It hasn’t been his best season overall, but I can’t help but think Vasilevskiy is due for some regression to the mean.
The Lightning goaltender wasn’t sensational in last year’s series against the Maple Leafs either, but he came up big when it mattered, most notably stopping 30 of 31 shots in Game 7 to help his team advance.
I suspect we’ll see a similar performance tonight from Vasilevskiy as well as a hard, early push from the hosts in what feels like a must-win game for Tampa Bay.
My best bet: Lightning to win race to three goals (-118 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs surprisingly opened with the slight betting edge heading into tonight’s contest, getting -110 on the moneyline to -102 for the Lightning.
Most books evened them out by Monday morning, though, making this one a true pick‘em. With so much on the line for the hosts, I’ve got to go with the Bolts in Game 4.
Based on playoff pedigree alone, this just feels like one of those games that the Lightning are meant to dominate. Tampa Bay has reached three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, winning two of them, and going down 3-1 in the first round doesn’t sound like it’s part of their championship DNA.
On the other hand, the Maple Leafs have notoriously failed to advance past the first round since 2004 while also failing to take a 3-1 series lead in 10 of their last 11 attempts – the only success being their 2021 series against the Canadiens, a series they still lost.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Over/Under analysis
The total for Game 4 settled at 6.5 goals at most books and all signs point to the Over being the play tonight.
When you think of playoff hockey, you usually imagine tight-checking, low-scoring affairs but that’s not what we’ve seen from these teams so far.
The Leafs and Lightning have cashed the Over in each of their last nine meetings at Amalie Arena and 13 of their last 16 matchups overall. The Over is also 7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last eight contests, while each game in this series has featured at least seven goals.
I do think we’ll see a better goaltending performance from Vasilevskiy, but that doesn’t completely negate Toronto’s talent. The Maple Leafs have scored at least three goals in nine of their last 10 battles vs. the Lightning, so if Tampa Bay does come out on top, the scoring will have to come.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in Toronto’s last nine first-round games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Monday, April 24, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 injuries
