The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning are locked into a first-round playoff match, making tonight’s regular season meeting meaningless but for possible tone-setting. There are a ton of question marks on the Leafs’ side, as they’ll likely be starting an amateur goalie.
Despite the uncertainties, the Lightning will be honoring Steven Stamkos tonight, who recently played in his 1,000th NHL game — all with the Bolts. With the night being about the winger, we could see a little more motivation from his teammates to get him the puck. And with the potential for plenty of penalties, Stamkos could be busy on the power play, too.
Find out where my best bets lie in my NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning on Tuesday, April 11.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning best odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning picks and predictions
It’s not easy finding a best bet in a game that has a ton of uncertainties. We aren’t sure if Tampa is going to dress all its top players in a game that means nothing, while the Maple Leafs could potentially be starting an amateur goalie in Matt Onuska, who posted a .868 save percentage in the OHL this year and was not sharp in the playoffs, either.
Hearing tonight's Leafs mystery goaltender may be Matt Onuska of the Windsor Spitfires. We'll see....
— Jeff Marek (@JeffMarek) April 11, 2023
Making things even more complicated is that the Leafs played yesterday and only had an optional skate this morning, meaning the answers to most questions could come closer to puck drop.
Despite the uncertainties, we should still see a physical game, as these two clubs are headed for another first-round playoff matchup next week. Last year, when these two teams met just prior to the playoffs, we saw a game with 102 total penalty minutes as both clubs tried to set the tone for what was ahead. If we see another approach like that tonight, we could see value in the skaters who see decent power play minutes.
With Andrei Vasilevskiy likely starting for the Bolts and the Leafs possibly playing an amateur goalie, the Lightning point props are likely the way to go. Bettors have also steamed the home side on the moneyline for around 80 points since opening.
That’s great news for Steven Stamkos, who will be honored tonight after playing in his 1,000 NHL game. That means we’re likely to see some money on the board for the Bolts, which can be motivating for the winger who is also playing his hometown team — one he’s recorded 60 points in 47 career games against.
Plenty of attention on Steven Stamkos this morning ahead of his 1,000-game ceremony. Had lots of autograph requests coming off the ice, including a shoe. When asked about the weirdest thing he’s ever signed, Stamkos answered with a laugh, “I don’t know if I can mention that.”
— Chris Krenn (@Chris_Krenn) April 11, 2023
With Stamkos likely seeing plenty of power play time, his quality of shots should be great as guys look to get him the puck. I like his anytime goal prop, which can be found as long as +190. But Sports Interaction has the best price on the board on his Over 2.5 shots at -120.
Even if doesn’t see his usual 5-on-5 ice time, the projected power play time could see him shooting vs. a Toronto team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in shot attempts allowed at all strengths since March 1. His PP1 linemate Brayden Point is also sitting on 49 goals on the season.
My best bet: Stamkos Over 2.5 shots on goal (-120 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning moneyline analysis
Betting this game early is a real risk, as this contest means nothing for either team ahead of their first-round matchup in the playoffs.
Toronto won’t even know who is starting in net until close to puck drop. The Leafs were denied their request for salary cap-exempt goaltending, and had to dress Nick Chenard, who was signed to an amateur tryout last night. If the league doesn’t allow them to call up Joseph Woll, the Leafs could be starting an amateur goalie tonight.
Jeff Marek tweeted out that it could be Windsor Spitfire goalie Matt Onuska, who posted a 4.44 GAA in the OHL this season as a 20-year-old. His 0.868 SV% is also creating a ton of steam on the home side.
It’s a disaster of a game to handicap in terms of a side. Toronto opened as a +100 road dog but has gotten even longer, sitting at +155 as of lunchtime before moving to +175.
Their question marks in net are bigger than the home side’s, who are surprisingly likely to start Valsilevskiy. There is no reason for the Leafs to start Ilya Samsonov in net after playing yesterday, so the advantage in net will be fair for the Bolts.
With the back-to-back, we won’t know who is in or out of the Leafs’ lineup tonight until much closer to puck drop, as the morning skate is optional, and is usually only attended by players working back from injury.
Tampa was a -130 home favorite in the last meeting at Amalie Arena back in early December. That’s an 80-point adjustment at tonight’s -210 moneyline price, indicating the changes to the Toronto lineup will be significant tonight.
For both teams, health is more important than results. With the Lightning dealing with some injuries themselves with Tanner Jeannott out and Mikhail Sergachev banged up, this could be a very unusual game in terms of minutes, production, and effort.
The ship has already sailed on the Bolts at the better price, and even if the Leafs start an amateur in net, I’m likely off this side with all the uncertainties. The only angle I could see myself getting on this moneyline is if the Bolts get steamed to -220 or shorter and I can get the Leafs at +185 or better. It might be a bet on Toronto on price alone.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Over/Under analysis
Since we might not know the Leafs starting goalie until closer to puck drop, it’s hard to play this total with any confidence.
If the Leafs play an amateur goalie in Onuska, I could see the Over continuing to get hit, but I’d still expect Toronto to play a decent game in front of a possible non-professional goalie.
The Over started to take some money before the Jeff Marek tweet alluding to Onuska starting, and moved 20 points to the Over quickly after the tweet. If this hits 7, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a buyback on the Under.
Because of their cap space, the Leafs don’t have a ton of options to dress a different lineup than last night, meaning the big names will likely skate — possibly limited — and we could see guys like Matthew Knies get a longer leash after playing 13:09 in his NHL debut last night.
Knies skated on the third line and with the second power play unit, and with his upside and role going forward, it will be guys like him and Alex Kerfoot likely driving the offense tonight, which is a lot to ask when playing this Over.
There is absolutely no reason for big players to play big minutes tonight outside of with the man advantage, and with Vasilevskiy probable, two-way scoring isn’t a lock at all either.
I’m off this total unless the Leafs dress an amateur goalie and the market drives this total up to 7, and even then, it is more of a lean.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting trend to know
The home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 11, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning key injuries
