The Toronto Maple Leafs blew another two-goal lead in their last outing but managed to steal two points versus the Ducks. Luckily for them tonight, they’ll have a huge advantage on the road versus the Detroit Red Wings, who played last night and pulled off a big upset over the Penguins.
Can Petr Mrazek build off his strong win vs. the Islanders and start to wrangle some starts away from Jack Campbell? Do the Red Wings have anything left in the tank after last night’s win as +225 road dogs? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs Red Wings on January 29.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Toronto opened up at -215 on the moneyline, but has since moved to -260 with a total of 6. Toronto won 5-4 as -300 home favorites in the last meeting back on October 30. That total closed at 6 and had six total goals in the third frame.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+100)
- Prediction: Over 6 (-110)
- Best bet: Maple Leafs TT Over 3.5 (-125)
Predictions made on 1/29/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings game info
• Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
• Date: Saturday, January 29, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, BSDET
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings betting preview
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: Timothy Liljegren D (Probable), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Nick Ritchie F (Questionable).
Red Wings: Thomas Greiss G (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings head-to-head record (since 2018)
Maple Leafs: 11-3 SU, 59 goals for.
Red Wings: 3-11 SU, 37 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in the Red Wings’ last nine games playing on 0 days rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
Stop us if you’ve heard this one: the Leafs blew another third-period lead but escaped with two points. The Buds carried a 3-1 lead into the late parts of the second period on Wednesday versus the Ducks and then surrendered two even-strength goals to force extra time. The Leafs would eventually win in the shootout but these late-game collapses are becoming a habit, as it’s the fifth two-goal lead this team has blown in its last seven games. Luckily, for Sheldon Keefe’s team, it has a big advantage tonight versus a lowly Detroit squad.
The Wings are coming off a 3-2 shootout win over the Pens last night in a game that nobody gave them a chance to win. The Red Wings deserved to win that game, per Money Puck’s DTW meter, but can this basement-dwelling team step up their game for a second night versus an elite team?
Detroit is a Bottom-5 team in most metrics at 5-on-5, including Corsi%, Fenwick% and expected goals against. The Red Wings have won in regulation just once in their last 10 games and have the league’s fourth-worst power play at home. Since December 1, the Wings are 8-13 SU, with those eight victories coming against the Islanders (x2), Buffalo (x2), New Jersey, San Jose, Seattle and Pittsburgh. Detroit does not fare well against good opponents and that’s why it was +225 last night facing a Pittsburgh team that was on the backend of a back-to-back.
The Leafs have been experimenting with some new lines and have put Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander on separate lines. On Wednesday, the Leafs failed to score at even strength but dominated 5-on-5 play versus the Ducks. It might take these lines some time to adjust, but the initial expected results were evident as all three lines finished with an xgoal% above 75.
They didn't score 5-on-5, but the Maple Leafs' new spread offence was a success tonight.
— luke fox (@lukefoxjukebox) January 27, 2022
They outchanced the Ducks 33-9 at 5-on-5.
Marner, Matthews, Nylander and Tavares each had two points, a minimum of 6 shots, and at least 20:30 in ice time.
The Leafs could possibly be stronger in net tonight as well. Jack Campbell deserves some blame for the recent collapses as he's hit a rough patch and has allowed at least three goals in five straight starts. Keefe will turn to former Red Wing Petr Mrazek, who has looked sharp since returning from injury. He’s stopped 43 of the last 46 shots he’s faced and deserves some more playing time after his two starts on the recent road trip. In his last game, a 3-1 win over the Islanders, Mrazek stood strong late in the game and helped preserve the late two-goal lead — something Campbell has struggled to do of late. Mrazek is not a downgrade here at all.
The Leafs’ power play was also humming in their last game and finished three for four with the man advantage. This is still the best power play in hockey at 30.6%.
Detroit will go with Alex Nedeljkovic in net after Calvin Pickard grabbed the victory yesterday. The goalie was pulled in his last start after giving up four goals on 16 shots and owns a 2.89 GAA on the season.
With the power play clicking and the new lines generating a ton of quality chances, this could be a very one-sided game. Detroit is a bad team due to consistency and the chances of them beating Pittsburgh and Toronto on back-to-back nights is slim. Toronto has also won 11 of the last 14 meetings.
The Leafs have been a hard team to trust, but at +100 on the puck line versus a team that played yesterday and struggles to beat good teams, this is the play for us and we’d take it as low as -120.
Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+100)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs will likely need to score four goals to push this total of 6, which is very attainable. The top-three lines all feature some threat to score, so even with the last change, Detroit will have trouble matching up tonight. The 5-on-5 chances were there vs. Anaheim and we think they show up on the scoresheet tonight.
Detroit is a terrible possession team at even strength and Toronto will continue to tilt the ice. The Leafs finished with 5.45 xgoals versus the Ducks Wednesday and those chances should fall tonight versus a poor defensive team like the Wings.
Nedeljkovic has played decently this season and has a goals saved above expected/60 similar to Thatcher Demko's, but he comes into tonight’s match in rough form and owns a 3.13 GAA since January 1. He could be regressing to the mean as he's been playing above expectations this season.
Mrazek will face his former team tonight for the second time this season. He started vs. the Wings back on October 30, and although it was just his second start of the season and he was coming off yet another injury, Mrazek gave up four goals on 31 shots. That 5-4 game finished with 6.35 xgoals.
The Leafs are a Top-5 team in xgoals for at 5-on-5 and sport the league’s best power play. They are also thin on the blueline with Jake Muzzin out and Timothy Lijegren banged up. If Detroit can get two goals, this Over has a great chance of hitting. We like the Leafs to stack goals tonight and go on a run with three straight winnable games coming up.
Prediction: Over 6 (-110)
Best bet
We’re taking the Wings’ inconsistent offense out of the equation and focusing on what the Leafs’ offense has been doing of late: generating chances. The new line combos are a nightmare to match up against and with Matthews, Marner and Nylander all on separate lines, scoring opportunities are coming on every shift.
Despite scoring zero times at even strength vs. the Ducks, there is an argument to be had that Wednesday was the team’s best 5-on-5 offensive performance. Finishing a game with over 5.00 xgoals is no easy task and with the power play humming along, we’re drinking a little juice and hitting the Leafs’ team total Over 3.5 goals as our best bet in this game. The Wings are in a giant let-down spot after the win in Pittsburgh last night and struggle versus winning teams.
Pick: Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-125)
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