The Toronto Maple Leafs will see if a change of scenery can snap them out of their poor play, as they face the Buffalo Sabres in the outdoor setting of Tim Hortons Field for the Heritage Classic game Sunday afternoon in Hamilton.
With Jack Campbell on the shelf and a ton of question marks in net, can the Leafs be a respectable big favorite against anyone right now? Or will the Sabres hand the Leafs another defeat after a 5-1 victory in Toronto two weeks ago?
Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Sabres vs. Maple Leafs.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Maple Leafs opened as -270 ML favorites with a total of 6.5 that leans to the Under. The Leafs closed as -400 favorites in the last meeting two weeks ago with a total of 6.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres predictions
Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Sabres game info
• Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON
• Date: Sunday, March 13, 2022
• Puck drop: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Maple Leafs vs Sabres betting preview
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: Jack Campbell G (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Questionable).
Sabres: Will Butcher D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres head-to-head record since 2018-19
Maple Leafs: 7-3 SU, 37 goals for.
Sabres: 3-7 SU, 34 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 26-8-2 in Maple Leafs’ last 36 overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Puck line analysis
The Leafs may be having their best season ever in regards to a point total, but this is a team in serious shambles right now. They’ve won five of their last 10 games, but the losses have been ugly while the wins haven't been pretty either. Of the five most-recent losses, all of them have been at -200 or more as Sheldon Keefe’s team has consistently played down to the level of its competition. This is the easiest part of the Leafs’ schedule and they aren’t taking advantage of it. Even with the Sabres on deck for this outdoor event in Hamilton, how can we trust this Toronto team that will start Petr Mrazek and lost to the Sabres convincingly 10 days ago?
Jack Campbell has hit the infirmary and Keefe has given the nod to the veteran backstop, Mrazek. If we had to rate our trust in Mrazek on a scale from 1 to 100, we might need to use a decimal. The Leafs’ No. 2 has been more than awful of late and got the hook in his last start where he allowed four goals on 12 shots. Mrazek also owns an unsightly 3.43 GAAA with an even worse .884 SV% on the season. Buffalo tagged him for five goals in 31 shots in the previous meeting.
Although goaltending has been an issue, the play defensively has also been a major factor in why the team is giving up 4.08 goals per game over the last 30 days. Jake Muzzin’s absence is glaring, and even Rasmus Sandin's injury has put some lesser talent into bigger roles.
The Toronto offense has been incredible and is the reason why the Leafs aren’t 1-9 SU on their last 10, but the reliance on comebacks and winning games late is not a recipe for consistency and is why we’ve seen big dogs cash versus the Leafs of late.
Likely Buffalo starter Craig Anderson stopped 29 of 30 Toronto shots in the last meeting and allowed just one goal to Vegas in his most recent outing. He may be older than some NHL coaches, but the 350-game vet is playing well of late and already has an outdoor shutout to his name from his time with the Senators.
The Sabres come into this outdoor matchup having foiled Jack Eichel and the Golden Knights in their previous game. They’re 3-2 SU in their last five with wins at +176, +175, and +340 with the latter being against the Leafs in the 5-1 win.
Toronto gave up a 5-on-5 goal to each of Buffalo’s top-three lines in that game and outplayed the Leafs at even strength. The Sabres aren’t much to brag about, but with Mrazek in net, the Sabres at +1.5 for -115 is still what we like.
Even with this Buffalo line being nearly 100 points off from the last meeting, we can’t trust this Toronto goaltending and defense situation as heavy favorites.
Prediction: Sabres +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under analysis
We are at the point in the season where we can almost blindly hit the Leafs’ Over (up to 6.5) in any situation. The Leafs haven't had to play a difficult schedule over the last 10 games which include a handful of Bottom-10 offenses. Despite the easy schedule, Toronto has given up three or more goals to its opponents in 10 of its last 11 games as the Over has gone 9-2 across that stretch.
The Leafs’ defense and goaltending have shown that no lead is safe. Games against Vancouver, Seattle, and Detroit have proven this while the offense has amassed 41 goals over its last 10 matches.
Good weather is expected for the outdoor game with wind possibly being the only issue. We think we’re at the point in technology where ice conditions shouldn't be a factor as these outdoor events are becoming commonplace. We saw plenty of offensive action in the outdoor game in Minnesota that featured the coldest temperatures recorded for an outdoor hockey match.
The Matthews line has been arguably the best line in hockey this season. Buffalo slowed it down once, but doing that twice in a row is highly unlikely. Auston Matthews has 38 points across his last 23 games but has been outproduced by linemate Mitch Marner, who leads the league in points over the last 60 days with 41 in 23 games played. The third member of that band, Michael Bunting, has just as many points as Nathan MacKinnon with 23 points over that stretch.
Mrazek is 11-5 to the Over on the season while this lineup has struggled to keep goals out of the net with Muzzin on the shelf. It’s a small defensive group that sits second in the league in defensive zone giveaways and struggles to keep defenders off the puck in front of the net. With the Leafs’ potent offense and Mrazek in net, there isn’t a better Over team in hockey right now than the Leafs who are 16-4 to the Over in their last 20 games.
We aren’t afraid to hit the Over 6.5 here in the outdoor environment.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (+100)
Best bet
The last game these two teams played, the Under hit as the Sabres held the Leafs to a single goal. We doubt they contain Matthews & Co. in Hamilton on Sunday afternoon. On top of that, Mrazek’s superhuman powers to allow soft goals will keep this Leafs’ offense in scoring mode, and even in the great outdoors, we’re expecting goals in the Heritage Classic.
This is the best price we’ve seen on a Toronto Over for as long as we can remember.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+100)
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