Oilers vs Flames Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Back the Over in Alberta

We have the Battle of Alberta on Saturday night with the Calgary Flames hosting the Edmonton Oilers. This meeting is this season’s second edition of this historic rivalry with Calgary winning the first matchup 4-3 just two weeks ago.

Will we see another high-scoring affair, or can the goaltending step up this time around? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Oilers vs Flames on Saturday, October 29.

Oilers vs Flames best odds

Oilers vs Flames picks and predictions

The Over has been a hot bet in the Battle of Alberta for the last couple of seasons, which makes sense considering the firepower that each of these offenses possesses. While the Flames lost superstars Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau over a tumultuous off-season, they reloaded with the acquisitions of Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, and MacKenzie Weegar.

Many would argue, including myself, that this team improved over the offseason due to the increased depth these three players bring to the roster. On the other side, Edmonton’s two offensive stars need no introduction as Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid continue to stand head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league in terms of offensive production.

Each of these squads boasts a powerhouse offense as both clubs rank in the Top 10 in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5. However, the blue lines have not been keeping up with the offenses on either team.

Entering this game, both Calgary and Edmonton rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. Bad defense is nothing new for Edmonton, but its goaltending situation is also troubling.

Projected to take the crease for the Oilers is Jack Campbell, who has had a tough start to his Oilers tenure. Through six starts, Campbell possesses a .888 SV% and 3.88 GAA.

At 5v5, he ranks 23rd among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60). He was the starting netminder for Edmonton in this season’s first game against Calgary before getting yanked after he allowed four goals on just 11 shots to open the first period. 

Across his past three starts against the Flames, Campbell is 1-2 with a .853 SV% and 4.52 GAA. These are two dynamite offenses that play at an extremely fast pace and are typically too much for each defense to handle, a trend that should continue Saturday.

My best bet: Over 6.5 (-132 at BetRivers)

Oilers vs Flames moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Flames' moneyline in this contest, but this intense rivalry is typically a coin flip which makes the juice on Calgary’s line unattractive. Additionally, there is a revenge spot factor for Edmonton after Campbell got embarrassed his first time out against the Flames.

There will probably be a lot of live betting opportunities in this game for those who enjoy going that route, as the game is never over between these two clubs even if someone jumps out to an early two-goal lead. This matchup is one of those where you could find either team at plus money throughout the game and guarantee a profit, at least based on history over the last couple of seasons.

Calgary’s team is better across the board, but with Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, it sometimes does not matter as those two can just take over a game at any time. With that in mind, the total is a much more appealing bet to make.

Oilers vs Flames Over/Under analysis

The only reservation to make regarding the Over in this contest is the play of Calgary’s projected starting goaltender, Jacob Markstrom. Through five starts this season, Markstrom is 4-0 with a .907 SV% and 2.49 GAA.

At 5v5, he ranks 13th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60. Markstrom started to find his footing early on this year, but can he keep it going against Edmonton?

He got the night off against the Oilers in this season’s first meeting, but if last year’s numbers are any indication, then this game will be difficult for Calgary’s netminder. Through his nine starts against Edmonton last season (including the playoffs), he went 3-6 with a .866 SV% and 4.40 GAA.

While those numbers are, quite frankly, terrible, Edmonton is a tough team to stop for any goaltender regardless of who is between the pipes.

Oilers vs Flames betting trend to know

The Over is 8-2 across the last 10 meetings in the Battle of Alberta. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs Flames.

Oilers vs Flames game info

Oilers vs Flames key injuries

Pages related to this topic