Two of the Metro’s finest will look to push their winning streaks Friday as Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins take on Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena.
Can the Capitals maintain their slim lead in the Metro Division? Can the Pens get on a heater and catch the big boys in the division despite getting beat in Washington, 6-1, earlier in November? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Capitals on December 10.
Penguins vs Capitals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Washington opened at -125 and now sits at -135 on the moneyline. The total is also starting to sag to 5.5 after opening at 6. These two teams met on November 14 with the Capitals winning 6-1 as -125 ML home favorites and a total that closed at 6.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Penguins vs Capitals predictions
Predictions made on 12/10/2021 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Penguins vs Capitals game info
• Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Friday, December 10, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Penguins vs Capitals betting preview
Injuries
Penguins: Jake Guentzel F (Out), Byran Rust F (Out), Evgeni Malkin F (Out).
Capitals: Carl Hagelin F (Questionable), Evgeny Kuznetsov F (Questionable), Nic Dowd F (Out), Garnet Hathaway F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Penguins vs Capitals head-to-head record (last 10)
Penguins: 6-4 SU, 32 goals for.
Capitals: 4-6 SU, 35 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Capitals are 8-1 SU in their last nine games vs. Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Capitals.
Penguins vs Capitals picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline/Puck line analysis
The Capitals have placed three players on COVID protocol (Garnet Hathaway, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Nic Dowd) and had to cancel practice on Wednesday because of it. Carl Hagelin also was ill on Thursday (non-COVID related) while Evgeny Kuznetsov missed Thursday’s practice with a lower-body injury that head coach Peter Laviolette called a precautionary absence. The absence of Kuznetzov would be rather big as he centers the first line with Alex Ovechkin and is second on the team in points. The possible key losses could slow down a Washington team that has lost in regulation just twice over its last 15 games and sits atop the Metropolitan Division standings.
The Capitals drew first blood in their first meeting with the Penguins in mid-November as Laviolette’s squad skated away with a 6-1 home victory. Washington closed that game as a -124 ML favorite and looks to be in an easier position Friday as Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, who were both in that 6-1 game, won’t suit up, meaning Sidney Crosby will be without his top wingers for the rivalry game.
Pittsburgh is already heavily reliant on its top-six forwards for scoring, and not having two of them means some line shuffling for Mike Sullivan. The Pens have ripped off two straight wins, but there shouldn’t be any bragging with victories over the Canucks and Kraken. This is also the last game of a five-game road trip for the Penguins, who had stops in Seattle, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary.
The Capitals have found some footing after a brief slide in play that started with their epic 4-1 third-period collapse against the Panthers four games ago. They’ve also picked up two straight victories as heavy favorites and are likely riding Ilya Samsonov in net. The Russian netminder is 11-1-1 with a 2.42 goals against. He has an incredible 6-0-1 SU record at home with a 2.06 GAA.
Tristan Jarry is the biggest X-factor for the Penguins. Outside of one bad game versus Edmonton, the Pittsburgh netminder has allowed one or fewer goals in seven of his last eight starts. This is obviously an unsustainable rate for a goalie that posted a 2.75 GAA a season ago. In his seven career games versus the Capitals, Jarry is 4-3 SU with a 3.00 GAA.
This ML closed at -125 in the last meeting and could possibly drop if Kuznetsov is ruled out, but -135 is our limit for this Washington ML. They are one of the strongest home teams in the East and 25 cents includes the home-ice advantage, playing a team without two-thirds of its top line, facing an opponent that is on the last game of a cross-country road trip. Pittsburgh did win the season series last year 6-2, but four of those wins came in overtime.
Prediction: Capitals ML (-135)
Over/Under analysis
Pittsburgh is a neutral Over/Under team, while the Capitals have been slightly profitable to the Over this season. With the total opening at 6, -115 to the Under, and moving to -120 to the Under, we can easily see which way the market is leaning here. Some books have even hit 5.5.
The reason is simple: both players are down significant role players, so what should have likely been a 6 with two healthy squads — as it was in the first meeting — is trending to the 5.5.
Jarry has a 1.11 GAA over his last nine starts (somehow he has three losses in that stretch) and although regression is coming, he is currently one of the better goalies in the league.
Even if Laviolette pulls a quick one and subs in Vitek Vanecek for the start in net, Washington and Under backers shouldn’t panic, as the No. 2 picked up the win in a 25-save effort back in the first meeting. But who is going to sit Samsonov, who has yet to lose at home in regulation?
The Penguins have the best penalty kill in hockey and haven’t allowed a PP goal since the last meeting vs. Washington, which is a span of 11 games. The Caps haven’t been drawing a ton of opportunities with the man advantage of late either and have had just a single PP opportunity in three straight games (zero goals).
Pittsburgh is Top 10 in 5-on-5 scoring but the Capitals are one of the better teams defensively at even strength while the Pens sit sixth in expected goals against at 5-on-5.
The last game finished 6-1, but with just over 4.00 expected goals. The Pens finished with just 1.4 xgoals with a much healthier lineup than they will likely roll out tonight.
Prediction: Under 6 (-120)
Best bet
Washington beat the Pens at full strength back in November and is paying almost the same price to beat a shorthanded version of them tonight. Yes, the Capitals will be missing key pieces, but if Kuznetsov and Hagelin suit up, the heavy-minute skaters for Laviolette’s team will be intact.
Samsonov’s success at home should match Jarry’s overall play of late and if Washington can get on the board first, they will be playing into the offensive weaknesses of the Penguins who have just one win after trailing in the first period.
This is also a great schedule spot for the Capitals, as the Pens are just finishing a road trip that took them all the way to the West Coast and back.
Yes, the Capitals are dealing with absences of their own, but if Hagelin and Kuznetsov are in the lineup, this is still a strong Washington squad that has dealt with injuries all season and persevered. We’d suggest monitoring this line before throwing down, as it could be volatile with the injury news.
Pick: Capitals ML (-135)
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