Penguins vs Hurricanes Picks and Predictions: Carolina's Fatigue Will Prove Costly

The two best teams from the Metro Division will meet in Raleigh tonight as the Pittsburgh Penguins, hot off a dominant win over the Lightning last night, visit the Carolina Hurricanes who were shut out by the Capitals less than 24 hours ago.

Can the Penguins make up some ground in the division with a victory in regulation tonight? Can the Hurricanes avoid losing a third straight game for just the second time this season? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Hurricanes.

Penguins vs Hurricanes odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Pittsburgh opened at +130 road dogs but moved quickly and significantly to +115 shortly after with a total of 6, with some 6.5s out there. These two teams met two weeks ago with the Canes picking up a 4-3 shootout win as +110 road underdogs. Both teams played last night and used their No. 1 goalies.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Penguins vs Hurricanes predictions

• Prediction: Pens ML (+115)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
• Best bet: Letang Over 2.5 shots (-105)

Predictions made on 3/4/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Penguins vs Hurricanes game info

• Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC
• Date: Friday, March 4, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports South, SportsNet Pittsburgh

Penguins vs Hurricanes betting preview

Key injuries

Penguins: Jason Zucker F (Out).
Hurricanes: Brendan Smith D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Penguins vs Hurricanes head-to-head record since 2017-18

Penguins: 4-6 SU, 23 goals for.
Hurricanes: 6-4 SU, 26 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Penguins are 18-5 SU in their last 23 road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Hurricanes.

Penguins vs Hurricanes picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Tonight is a huge game for the Penguins, who sit three points back from the Carolina Hurricanes for the top spot in the Metropolitan division with the Canes having two games in hand. A loss here will set the Pens back but a win in regulation could make things very interesting for the Hurricanes, who have dropped back-to-back games, including a 4-3 OT loss to the Red Wings and a 4-0 defeat to the Capitals last night. 

Carolina struggled to generate any offense last night versus a very underrated Washington team, finishing with just 1.9 expected goals. The Canes might not have to see Tristan Jarry who stifled the Bolts last night, but even backup Casey DeSMith has a 2.26 GAA over his last six games and is 3-0-1 over that stretch. 

Since their 6-1 loss to the Devils last week, the Pens have ripped off three straight wins and combined to outscore the Lightning and Rangers 6-1 in two of those victories. The power play has scored in five straight games, and the penalty kill has gotten back to its league-best ways with the impressive line of McGinn-Carter-Rodrigues being a strong third unit.

Carolina is a hard team to beat at home, with a 19-6 SU record, but the market is warming up to the Pens as the line has moved from +130 to +115. The Hurricanes closed as +110 road dogs in the last meeting, making +115 still a little short and likely why we saw the quick line movement. Pittsburgh is also the best road team in hockey with a 19-6-3 mark, having won eight of its last nine matches on the road.

Many bettors will want to fade DeSmith if he is confirmed, which could help the price inflate on the Pittsburgh side. DeSmith has had rough patches this season but is playing well right now.  

This game is going to be a battle and should be another close divisional game that should be decided by one goal. Pittsburgh was the much better team last night and with both teams traveling for this game, there is an edge for the visitors who don’t have to deal with all the extra dealings of traveling home. We’re siding with the market on this one and hitting the Pens on the ML, recency bias be damned.

Prediction: Penguins ML (+115)

Over/Under analysis

Although unconfirmed, there is a very good chance we see DeSmith and Antti Raanta tonight. DeSmith has played the second game twice in a row of late while Frederik Andersen has not played in back-to-back games this season.

Raanta has been one of the more consistent backups in the league but has been shelled for 11 goals over his last three starts. The Penguins scored three times against him in the last meeting back on February 20.

Pittsburgh had no problems scoring against another stingy home team in the Lightning last night. If the Pens can bury four goals versus Vasilevskiy, they could easily flirt with three this time around. Pittsburgh has scored a power-play goal in five straight games and faces a Carolina PK that has given up three PP tallies over its last two matches.

As mentioned above, DeSmith has been playing decently of late but a blowup is always around the corner for the Pens’ backup. He owns a 3.00 GAA and has been pulled in two of his last six starts. As a Penguins ML backer, we hope he has things figured out, but there is always a chance that DeSmith blows a tire. Carolina scores 3.56 goals per game at home and has a Top-4 power play.

With so much on the line for both teams, we might see some short benches as both coaches lean heavily on their thoroughbreds. The last meeting closed with a total of 6.5 in a game that featured Raanta and Jarry in net. Getting this total at 6 is a deal. 

Prediction: Over 6 (-125)

Best bet

Kris Letang is one of the more underrated offensive defensemen in the league. Since January 1, he's averaged 9% of the team’s total shots and gets to see a Carolina team that allowed nearly 33% of shots against last night to come from the Washington blue line. 

Letang is 9-4 to the Over on his 2.5 shot total over his last 13 games and has a median of 3 shots per game on the season. He takes 17.1% of his shifts in the offensive zone and gets all the touches on a power play that is clicking on all cylinders right now. We have him projected at 3.2 shots tonight which makes the Over 2.5 (-105) a value play on our end. In a game that will likely be close, pivoting to the prop market might be the safer bet.

Pick: Kris Letang Over 2.5 shots (-105)

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