Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins continue their five-game road trip Wednesday night with a stop in Edmonton to take on Connor McDavid and the Oilers who have become the best home team in hockey with an 8-1 straight-up record at Rogers Place.
Can Tristan Jarry help the Pens snap a two-game losing skid? Can Edmonton continue to stack wins at home and leapfrog the Flames for the Pacific’s top spot? Find out on our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Oilers on Wednesday, December 1.
Penguins vs Oilers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Edmonton opened at -130 on the moneyline with a total of 6 that has been bet up to -120 to the Over after opening at -110.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Penguins vs Oilers predictions
Predictions made on 12/01/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Penguins vs Oilers game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Wednesday, December 1, 2021
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT, SN1
Penguins vs Oilers betting preview
Injuries
Penguins: Dominik Simon F (Questionable), Brian Boyle F (Questionable), Bryan Rust F (Out), Evgeni Malkin F (Out).
Oilers: Duncan Keith D (Out), Cody Ceci D (Out), Mike Smith G (Out), Darnell Nurse D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Penguins vs Oilers head-to-head record (since 2015-16)
Penguins: 8-2 SU, 31 goals for.
Oilers: 2-8 SU, 20 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in Penguins’ last six vs. Pacific teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Oilers.
Penguins vs Oilers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline/Puck line analysis
The Edmonton Oilers are 4-1 SU in their last five and come in rested having not played since last Saturday. They went 9-4 SU in November but beat up bad teams as their wins by two-plus goals include the Kraken, Coyotes, Blackhawks, Predators, and the Bruins (the exception). Their other eight games were a combination of losses (Dallas, Winnipeg, Buffalo, and Detroit), OT winners (Winnipeg and the New York Rangers), and one-goal wins (Vegas and St. Louis). Edmonton has exceeded expectations to date, especially with Mike Smith out, but this is still a team that has closed as the underdogs in three of their last four road games and didn’t beat a top-tier team at home all month.
The Penguins come into Wednesday's match following a 2-1 shootout loss to the Flames on Monday where goalie Tristan Jarry was spectacular yet again and finished with +2.71 goals saved above expected. It capped off an incredible November for the Pittsburgh goaltender that saw him finish with a 1.70 goals-against average, a .944 save percentage, and three shutouts. Jarry has taken at least one point from the Flames, Maple Leafs, Wild, Jets, and Panthers over his hot streak.
Edmonton is still relying heavily on its offense to carry it to victory as eight of its last 10 wins have come with the Oilers scoring four or more goals. At home this year, they have yet to win in regulation when scoring fewer than four goals. If Jarry can stifle Oilers, much like Dallas and Jake Oettinger did last Tuesday, Pittsburgh is a great underdog play at +110.
Stopping the Edmonton power play is always a cause for concern for opponents. It’s the best unit in the league and has a 37.7% success rate on the season. However, the Pens are a perfect 19 for 19 on the penalty kill over their last eight games and own the league’s best PK at 90.1%. Additionally, they take penalties at the lowest rate in the league and should give Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl minimal opportunities with the man advantage.
Playing the Oilers at 5-on-5 is the best way to beat the Pacific’s No. 2 team. Coach David Tippett’s team has a negative goal differential at 5-on-5 to date and owns a Fenwick percentage that sits below 50%.
Edmonton goalie Mikko Koskinen will likely draw the start after an impressive win at Vegas on the weekend. The 33-year-old tender has been anything but solid between the pipes this season, holding the fort down while Mike Smith gets healthy. Koskinen is 11-2 SU but has been the benefactor of one of the best offenses in the league. On the season, Koskinen has a 2.89 GAA and .912 SV% while sporting a negative goals saved above expected/60, meaning he is playing worse than a league-average goalie.
Sidney Crosby has been back for nine games and the Pens are 5-2 SU in their last seven — taking 11 of a possible 14 points. They’ve allowed one or fewer regulation goals in six of those seven games and could find some offense against a shorthanded Edmonton blueline without Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci. The Oilers allow 2.6 even-strength goals per game.
Pittsburgh closed at +125 in Calgary on Monday and sits at +110 for Wednesday’s contest. The price indicates the books’ perception that Pittsburgh should pose a tough matchup for Edmonton that struggles to win without running up the score.
Prediction: Penguins ML (+110)
Over/Under analysis
This total is a tough one to handicap as we have one of the highest-scoring teams in Edmonton, but also a stingy Pittsburgh unit that has found success in low-scoring games. However, we never like betting against hot goaltenders, and with a total of six leaning to the Over, we’re getting a good price on backing one of the hottest goalies in the league in Jarry.
In his last 10 starts, Jarry is 8-2 to the Under, including games versus the Leafs, Panthers, Wild, and Flames, which are three of the Top-10 offenses in the league. The Pittsburgh goalie sits fifth in goals saved above expected/60, third in GAA (1.85), and fourth in WAR. This is also the first total of six or higher the Penguins have seen over their last seven games.
Giving the Oilers fewer chances on the PP is also a great strategy at keeping this a low-scoring affair. Connor & Co. have scored multiple PP goals in three of their last 10 games but could struggle to bury with the Penguins sporting the best PK in the league and playing disciplined hockey with the lowest penalties per game. If Sid and the Pens can turn this into a game decided at even strength, we could be chalking up another Under victory for Jarry.
The Penguins offense isn’t driving this total price up, either. Since Sid’s return to the lineup, Pittsburgh is averaging 2.44 goals per game, which is a Bottom-10 mark. However, only two other teams are allowing fewer goals per game over that same stretch than the Pens at 1.89.
If we’re confident in the Pens on the ML, there is a strong correlation between that and this Under 6. This total opened at -110 aside so there’s a chance that it keeps moving north as it sits at -120 to the Over, possibly to 6.5.
Prediction: Under 6 (+100)
Best bet
The books have been slightly bearish on the Oilers of late. In their last three games, they’ve closed at +120 at Vegas, -215 at Arizona, and +100 at Dallas. With tonight’s price of -130 on the ML, the books are indicating that these teams have a near-50% win probability if this were at a neutral site as 20 cents is usually given for home-ice advantage.
With the way Jarry and the Pens are playing right now, we just don’t see this turning into a 4-3 game, which pushes the advantage to the visitors as the Oilers haven’t proven that they can be trusted in low-scoring games.
The Penguins are 9-1 SU when they score first and have allowed just 10 first-period goals across 20 games this season. This is not a great matchup for the Oilers. Combine that with some sub-par goaltending from Koskinen, and we’re backing the visitors as our best bet for the Crosby-McDavid Cup, which has the Pittsburgh star leading 8-2 SU since McDavid entered the league in the 2015-16 season.
Pick: Penguins ML (+110)
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